My Map to 270 - 6/2/08: The Day Before the Beginning of the General Election

[MadBadger]

I've updated my Obama map to what I see happening as of now if the General Election were held today. My numbers should change in about two to three weeks once Obama wraps up the Nomination Tusday night.



I moved Michigan into the McCain column, though I expect to move it back to the Obama colum in the coming months. I am also allocating 1 electoral vote out of Nebraska to Obama and 4 for McCain because Obama will win the 1st Congressional District there. Florida and Missouri will remain in the McCain column until I see other polls to the contrary. So If the election were held today, Obama would win with 290 electoral votes, to McCain's 248.

[speedoo]

1. Michigan?

Is McCain polling ahead of Obama there? And is the reverse true in Ohio and PA?

[MadBadger]

2. Ive seen Obama down four in multiple polls in Michigan

He's up in all PA polls and up in some polls in OH.

[speedoo]

6. Thanks.

I don't get why McCain is ahead in Michigan, even by that small degree.

[MadBadger]

7. Its because of this clusterfuck they got themselves in with the primary.

[speedoo]

8. I guess you're right.

Should be a temporary issue.

But the real good news is Ohio and PA. Seems to me McCain must win one of them.

[illberichtomorrow]

3. You are correct

Obama is up in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and two recent polls showed McCain slightly leading in Michigan.

[Politics_Guy25]

4. Hmnnf,

In my opinion move Michigan back to the Obama column or move Ohio into the Mccain column as well. Senator Obama won't lose Michigan but win Ohio in any circumstances IMO.

[MadBadger]

5. Michigan is an odd ball this year because of them violating DNC rules.

[Abacus]

9. Same as mine, except MI

306/227

[woolldog]

10. Oh that's interesting that you turned MI red.

I'm worried about the rust belt...

[grantcart]

11. Indiana has already moved blue though it is close

[MadBadger]

12. I've heard about a recent poll that may have shown that. Do you have one?

[grantcart]

14. 2 of the last 3 you may decide just to leave it neutral as it is so close

http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Pres-GE-MvO.php

[MadBadger]

15. I'm not ready to switch it to blue after that 1 poll that puts him up 1

The other two cancel each other out.

[cliffordu]

13. NIce post. I'm glad I live in a blue state.

[JPZenger]

16. k and r. nt