It's my nature to contemplate worst case scenarios

[FlyingSquirrel]

And having heard the fateful words uttered by the Clinton campaign, "Moving on to the next phase of the campaign", I had to fire up the spreadsheet.

PD: Obama 1741.5, Clinton 1624.5

Let's say Obama gets 17 delegates and Clinton gets 14 tomorrow. Final tally, 1758.5 to 1638.5

As Hillary points out, the superdelegates can change their minds.

Let's say over the next week all the remaining superdelegates endorse one or the other. Obama gets the same percentage of them that have currently endorsed, so he gets 104.5 and Hillary gets 91.

Total, Obama 2199 - Clinton 2021.5 - Edwards 12.5

"But hold on there young feller! I think you need 2209 cause I'm not done contesting MI and FL. Edwards may have asked his delegates to vote for Obama but they might not. So I'm staying in to the Convention, and I'm gonna spend this next phase of my campaign looking to turn some of those delegates my way."

Now what does Hillary need to do? The MI/FL thing is probably just a ruse to allow her to stay in - most likely she will not be able to change that situation. So, she needs to switch 95.5 votes her way if the magic number stays at 2,117. What percentage is that? 21.7% of Obama's superdelegates - a little more than 1/5 of them.

Could be fewer, if she finds a way to contest some of the pledged delegates or otherwise get them to switch to her side.

EVEN IF OBAMA REACHES 2209 before the convention, she can still take it all the way there saying she wants to see them actually vote and she believes she can change their minds. Perhaps with the sweet lure of a unity ticket with her at the helm and Obama ready to take over in 8 years - possible 16 straight years with a Democratic president.

Kinda like when they have to poll the jury to see if each member will actually say "Guilty".

I know, it's a gloom and doom scenario - but I'm reminded of the old saying: "Youth and skill are no match for old age and treachery."

:scared:

[XemaSab]

1. I think most of the superdelegates will go to Obama

putting him comfortably over 2209. :)

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Even if so, she could still claim that they can change their minds

and cite MI/FL as her reason to stay in to the convention. Even if she does not end up winning, it will sink us.

[XemaSab]

5. If she does that...

If she "sticks it out" to the convention, especially after Obama gets over 2200 pledged delegates... she will look like the BIGGEST sore loser...

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. Possibly - or she could look like a visionary to some Democrats

Because if she could persuade enough supers that a Unity ticket is the only way to get her supporters back, but that she has to be at the head of it, then we could get 8 years of her followed by 8 years of Obama -- 16 years with a Democratic President.

[XemaSab]

10. I think she holds in her hands the power to split the party, maybe for good

There are some here who argue that the party SHOULD be split, but that's not an argument for today.

Today's discussion is about whether she (and Bill) will support the nominee, or not. And I fear that her holding out for a "unity" ticket will alienate as many people as she brings on board.

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. She's won nearly half the vote

Her supporters are extremely angry and may not get over it. I have been against her nomination from the beginning, and have been for Obama since shortly after Edwards dropped out - but I would vote for Clinton/Obama in a heartbeat no matter how it came about.

[PretzelWarrior]

2. she might have rude awakening when some of her supers go to him

that would be a slap of reality. coupled with majority of undelcared going his way....ouch. I don't REALLLY think she wants to drag this out. It will get ugly for her.

[Gore1FL]

4. if the number is 2209 that means MI and FL have full votes

his totals from doubling the 1/2 delegates from those states puts him well over 2209.

[BlooInBloo]

6. Nothing can kill the zombie

in our minds.

[rebel with a cause]

8. that sums it up nicely.

That is why people like me develop heart problems... or so they tell me.... but how can I trust them that tell me that. :rofl:

[muryan]

11. LOL

[rebel with a cause]

7. I am a gloom and doom person myself

but what is giving me hope is that the MSM is saying that her campaign is bankrupt. If that is so, then that means she cannot raise enough money to keep her going any longer. After saying that, I am still not feeling secure that tomorrow will change anything for the better. That would be too easy for me. I will sit here waiting for the sky to fall until I hear an all clear and see with my own eyes that what they are saying will happen will happen. :shrug:

[billyoc]

13. Worst case?! Pfft. You're the bluebird of happiness compared to me.

I've got feelers out to Halliburton/KBR, et al, in case McCain wins.

:hide:

[FlyingSquirrel]

15. Well, if she drags it out to the convention then McCain wins.

So I guess I'm just right there with ya. I think even a Unity ticket with Clinton on top doesn't beat McCain. It gets out the vote for the Repugs. Obama has a better shot but could still lose quite easily.

[stillcool]

14. I have no doubt...

that she will do anything, I just don't know if there is anything she can do. She has been given free reign to exit gracefully. If she chooses not to, it won't be pretty. People point to those who showed up at the rules committee as reflective of Clinton's support. I do not believe that is true. I'm sure people felt those portrayed in the "Brooks Brothers Riot" reflected Florida voters. People point to the popular vote, when no popular vote number can be calculated. It's all smoke and mirrors, but it will come crashing down around her, as it should, if she does not accept defeat.

[Solon]

16. My worst case scenario already happened, the left was defanged again...

and again, it happened well before the General Election. What could be worse than that?