THE MATH Daily Widget – Tuesday, June 3 – Wigand +0.00 – Total -2.50

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Tuesday, June 3 – Wigand +0.00 – Total -2.50








A new Connecticut poll shows McCain gaining on both Obama and Clinton there. This poll replaces an outdated poll and slightly increases the strength of projection. Iowa trades lower today, but still remains the bluest of our swing states. Coming soon, via the magnificent brainchild of grantcart, we will be tracking "The Arizona Watch" ... the probability that we could sneak in and take Arizona for the Democratic Party! (You know, like they did to us with Gore's Tennessee.)

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ No switches today in polling or trading. Blue is blue, and red is red.



^ Iowa is the only change today. Trading for Iowa dropped 2.50 since yesterday, but Iowa still remains the bluest of our swing states.



^ EV.com's electoral projection stays flat, while 538.com's electoral projection drops a point. My own projection drops five since yesterday, based on the poll weakening of Connecticut and the change in strength of projection.


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^ This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[Aloha Spirit]

1. Wow, I totally missed electoral-vote reporting an Obama advantage. Good effort, dumass.

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks beat! All three (Mercer, lol) are showing Obama wins.

Good morning :hi:

[The Doctor.]

3. Thanks for the work!

[phrigndumass]

4. yw, Doc!

Good morning :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. good morning, phrigndumass!

k&r :hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Good morning, f4m3s! :) Thanks!

Caught you this morning! Hope you have a great day.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. lunch kick

:kick:

[helderheid]

8. K&R I haz teh hope!

[phrigndumass]

10. lol ... and teh nummy nashun!

:toast:

[helderheid]

12. nummy nashun

:rofl: :yourock:

[mod mom]

9. Glad to be the vote that gets you on the greatest page on this important day!

[phrigndumass]

11. Happy V-day!

:toast: :party: :bounce: :hi: