When Hillary endorses Obama, will her supporters also get behind Obama?

[rox63]

Just wondering. There are some passionate Hillary supporters who have said they would never vote for Obama. Some have even threatened to vote for McCain if Hillary isn't the nominee. Do you think that will that change if Hillary endorses Obama and starts campaigning for him?

[rucky]

1. There aren't enough who won't...

to sway an election.

Our energy is better spent registering new voters.

[Ikonoklast]

8. Exactly.

If they can't vote for the nominee, then they are removing themselves from the Democratic Party.

The ones that supported Hillary for one reason, and one reason only are very few indeed.

New voters signing up as Democrats will vastly outnumber those that decide not to vote for the Democratic nominee because their candidate didn't win in the primaries.

[saltpoint]

2. I think real Democrats will support the ticket.

There may be a few of the pseudo-feminists who will stomp their collective feet and refuse to support Obama because he has male genitalia and they wanted Hillary Clinton's female genitalia to be the lone criterion for the presidency this cycle.

Life's a bitch, and then you lose the nomination.

[JKaiser]

3. No, not for me. I am not voting this year.

[John Q. Citizen]

17. Our phone bankers run into you Operation Chaos folks occationally. Good luck with that.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Window]

34. Your prerogative.

[snooper2]

36. Bitter are we

:rofl:






GOBAMA!

[Tesha]

4. Most will. A few won't.

And some of her "supporters" were just Republican
disrupters anyway.

Tesha

[CanonRay]

5. 95% of them. The other 5% have lost their minds.

See: Harriet Christian :mad:

[WeDidIt]

11. The other 5% were never Hillary supporters to begin with

They were OpErAtIoN KAAAAAAAOOOOOOOOOS goons.

[NJmaverick]

14. I think the split may be variable

more like 80-20 in the beginning. In time many of the 20% will come to their senses and hopefully we end up shrinking to 5%

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

6. Yes, Hillary will ask them to support the Dem ticket

and almost all will do that.

Maybe not Harriet Christian, but the rest, yes.

[Boz]

7. 29% of her supporters will not get behind Obama, 12% of them likely to vote McCain, not including

Repubs that crossed just for the primary.

Fiduciary statistics, not new, not outlier, and not specific to Hillary, but this is the way the numbers always break, wont be different this time either.

Obama has already offset that loss with gotv in his ground game.

Margin of error 3%

[LiberalAndProud]

10. And you can say that with certainty in early June?

A snapshot in time. 12% voting for McCain will be an overstatement by November, I have no doubt.

[BlooInBloo]

12. The poster is just making shit up.

[Boz]

24. Care to post a wager, its odds calculation, no different than life insurance,or european bet market

It is a calculation, not making shit up, it is based on a large number of pieces but I guarantee you barring an act of god, that will be the number.

In every business there are "magic" numbers, statistics that are a "given" or constant, thats how Las vegas survives and its no different in any other field, they are just like a tide you can either ride them or get washed over by them.

The numbers I site are based on just such fiduciaries with some massaging for outside influences and current inputs.

You will find it interesting to know, the tables have been right all year with one anomaly and it is that anomaly that has resulted with where we are today.

Hillary should have won, they set her whole campaign on these statistic bases and they had it dead bang, she was right when she said she would have it wrapped up by February 5th, every parliamentary move Ickes has made for the last 25 years in laying out the superdelegates and all of the other support structure made the odds of a chosen candidate nearly 60% advantage and shes a good candidate too which raised that. It has been strictly a statistics game. She should have won.

Obama is not winning because he is the better candidate, and I say that as an Obama supporter, Obama is winning because he caught the streak created by the anomaly.

That anomaly was Florida. Not Michigan it had no impact. But not getting Florida put the outcome of this contest to a statistical even game to how Hillary had campaigned. I dont mean the loss of Florida this last weekend, but the "not win" of Florida earlier into the game.

She never got to actually count it as a win, even though she did verbally, but people started to question it, which resulted in numbers softening across the board.

This wasn't a mistake by Hillary, Ickes tried to control the situation last August when he voted and lead others with their goals to strip Florida 100%, it was to force them to come in play at the right time, no one ever thought first that they would defy a flatout loss of everything and second that it wouldnt be fixed in time to matter for the math, and that is why her ground game was off after February 5th, it was supposed to be a cascade not an even battle.

That is the only reason we are here today and why she knows she still could have won it until recently, statistics are like death and taxes they are very rarely beat. She should have won.

We like to think we have a choice in alot of our life and while we do to some extent, their are alot more numbers patterns underlying those choices making them for us then some would care to realize.

Those numbers cited earlier were just such patterns and barring acts of god they have been right for 50 years.

No act of god is going to change a Hillary Supporters mind. So all things being equal, If McCain is the candidate and Obama is the Candidate Those statistics will be the result of the division.

[Name removed]

25. Deleted message

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[Boz]

26. Self Deleted Response

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Boz]

32. What does this have to do with me?

[BlooInBloo]

33. Not a damn thing.

[Boz]

35. Its the spite vote, Im going to vote for x because I wanted y and got z

It has always hovered around 12-15%, there will be a higher than normal non participating which is about 17% which is about 8% higher than previous averages with the exception of 1968

ON EDIT: write in is included in McCain/Spite vote

[LiberalAndProud]

9. There is time for passions to cool and

more pragmatic considerations to take the forefront. I suspect that some in "safe" states will feel free to withhold their votes. The next few weeks are going to be interesting.

[John Q. Citizen]

13. I'm not sure how many doors you knocked on during the campaign, but I knocked on plenty. All

the Clinton supporters I talk to say they will vote Obama in the general.

They just like Clinton better than Obama for whatever reason, and are voting that way in the primary.

I think people are far too swayed by what they read on anonymous discussion boards.

The poster who claims to be a Clinton supporter who will never vote for Obama is just as likely to be a Republican who would never vote for Clinton in the GE.

There are also Clinton surrogates (Like Ferraro) who have attempted to make the "electability argument" for Hillary by suggesting her supporters will welcome an end to Roe v Wade and 100 years of war in Iraq. I don't buy it.

No, the people at the doors who are voting for Hillary in the primary will vote for Obama in the GE.

[CatnHat]

15. Nope

Many Hillary supporters have already switched to independents.

Unlike Obama supporters--we do have minds of our own--and not be told by the "leader" how to vote.

We will vote (write-in)--or not vote at all. It's that simple.

[NatBurner]

18. lol

[John Q. Citizen]

20. Operation Chaos marches on! Good luck with that.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

27. McCain/Spite '08!

[bowens43]

31. simpletons love simple answers......

You are a lemming. You have no mind of your own. You aren't quite bright enough to understand the issues.

[Window]

39. Again, your prerogative.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. There are two kinds of Hillary supporters

1) Normal people who agree with her policies, did relatively well during the Clinton years, and/or would like to see a woman win the Presidency.

2) Rabid fanboys and girls who have plugged their emotional being directly into a the Hillary candidacy, and thereby behave like vicious little fanatical nuts.

In the general population, the proportion is 90% for #1, 10% for #2. On DU, the proportion is 10% for #1, and 90% for #2. So I wouldn't worry about it. The utter stupidity emanating from the Hillary supporters on this board does not translate well into the general public. Most people know a crazed fanboy/fangirl when they see one.

[John Q. Citizen]

21. Every Hillary supporter I know in the real world plans on voting Obama in the GE.

They are Democrats though, not Operation Chaos members.

[CatnHat]

22. wrong again

Hillary was not my first choice.

Must be easy to lump Hillary into two groups, seems that what Obama and his supporters do best. Put groups in categories; and insult them.

Stop and think--it's not about "fanatical" Hillary supporters--it's about Obama and his supporters.

[papapi]

23. Truer words have never been spoken. (er,__typen)

[Arkansas Granny]

28. If I was an Obama supporter, I would be careful about making statements

about rabid fans. That being said, every Hillary supporter I know has said since the primary race began that they will vote for the Democratic nominee this fall, regardless who it is. I don't know a single Democrat who will vote for McCain.

[LWolf]

29. Some will. Some won't.

The same answer you'd get if HRC were the nominee and Obama supporters had to make that choice.

I can't speak for the HRC supporters. For myself, if I don't support a candidate, I don't support a candidate. Others deciding to do so doesn't affect my own choices, no matter how much I respect them.

[Beacool]

38. Exactly, some will and some won't.

Same as if it had been the other way around and Hillary was the nominee.

:shrug:

[TexasObserver]

37. The 10% that are Republicans won't. The 10% that are Dixiecrats won't.

Of the 80% of Hillary's voters beyond that, most will vote for Obama. He might lose up to 5% of her voters among that 80%. In total, perhaps as many as 25% of her primary votes will go to McCain, but keep in mind that 80% of those were never going to vote Democratic in the fall, anyway.

[Owl]

40. Yes.