Fears grow that Obama can't win

[ensho]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/01/barackobama.uselections2008


Analysts believe white working class Democrats will defect to McCain if Clinton is not the nominee


With senator Barack Obama poised this week to clinch his party's nomination for President, there are growing fears in some quarters that the Democratic party may not be choosing its strongest candidate to beat Republican John McCain.

Senator Hillary Clinton has been making that argument for weeks. Now some recent polls and analysis, looking particularly at vital battleground states and support among white voters, have bolstered her case - even as Obama looks certain to become the nominee.

Obama supporters reject this argument and point to his record of boosting Democratic voter turnout, especially among the young. But sceptics in the party, already nervous about nominating Obama after the furore over outspoken pastor Jeremiah Wright, are growing increasingly concerned. 'There is an element of buyer's remorse in some areas. The question is whether it gets really strong now or in September - or even after the election is over, if he loses,' said Steve Mitchell, head of political consultancy Mitchell Research.

-snip-

Republican analysts, meanwhile, are surprised about how healthy their party's prospects look in a year when almost all indicators suggested they should lose. McCain remains competitive against Obama. He even leads in some key states. Indeed, some research predicts he could romp home against Obama.
-snip-
---------------------------------------


Obama supporters don't scream at me, I didn't write the article

but

I agree with the article. racist america will not vote for Obama. and the majority of americans are racist. and you know that is so.


the point is not to let the neo cons win in Nov. isn't it?

whose hate is the strongest? the racists or the sexists. sexism is the standard, world wide. racism is specific and local.

[Waya]

1. With all due respect.............

......that's rubbish.....

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

82. And a little late, considering events today

[roguevalley]

85. lets see, which dung heap is worse: Sexism or racism. Who cares.

IT is time to step up and vote for the WINNER who FOLLOWED THE RULES and SWEPT the country into a FEVER PITCH OF HOPE AND EXPECTATION.

I'm not worried.

[Owl]

89. Agreed. Rubbish.

[BlueJac]

2. The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.

[Iceburg]

11. ...And the tide of women moving to the McCain camp /nt

[Kittycat]

17. Which is idiotic and counter to any benefit for their own future.

Any woman that does that, deserves what they get. You'd be a fucking moron to vote McSame this time around. It's not just about the war, and stopping the continuation of 4 more years of Bush - but about protecting the SCOTUS. The ONLY entity that has the ability to truly change the lives of women for good and bad.

[Iceburg]

61. Perhaps you should have given your fear-mongering talking points

some consideration 5 months ago, while you bashing Hillary and defending the lunatic misogynist racist homophobes Rev Farrakan, Uncle Wright and brother McClurkin.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

69. Meanwhile, you were giving your Queen a pass on her own homophobes

Hillary's Donnie McClurkins

[chill_wind]

73. Jesus Christ!

When are you going to realize who is running and who isn't?

Talk about attempted fear-mongering talking points.

Even so, Farrakhan is not the problem.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x363329

[The Doctor.]

76. Wow...

You have no evidence to back any of that up. You live in a twisted fantasy world.

You're a loony.

[krispos42]

70. Yet people constantly vote against their best interest

Like poor states continually voting Republican.

Don't Think of an Elephant is an excellent book about his.

[EFerrari]

19. Because he's such a staunch feminist!

'Way to go! :woohoo:

[rurallib]

33. just ask Cindy

[DJ13]

21. ...And the tide of women moving to the McCain camp......

........stupidly supporting a candidate who is known to want to overturn choice and other issues important to women just out of a childish spite that Hillary ran a lousy campaign and lost......

Go for it, I dare you.

[SparkyMac]

44. If Obama is our candidate -- our biggest fear is that ...

...something may happen to McCain. Obama has a slight change of beating him -- but should McCain be forced to drop out, Obama could not beat any replacement the Republicans would put forward.

Clinton could compete with any of the leading Republicans.

[dascientist]

3. If the majority of america is "racist" then america deserves McCain

it's only logical

[Butch350]

38. If the majority of america is "racist" then america deserves McCain

* If the majority of america is "racist" then america deserves McCain

* If the majority of america is "racist" then america deserves McCain

* If the majority of america is "racist" then america deserves McCain

* If the majority of america is "racist" then america deserves McCain


GET THE POINT!

[Oberon]

71. ugh

I'm just too naive in things. I thought the US was truely past this kind of thinking. Sure there are still a few hold-outs in America but the majority, is past this! right?

I guess not. sigh....

[Jersey Devil]

4. Concern trolls

Gotta love em

[ElsewheresDaughter]

9. in the real world outside DU it exists...it is a real concern

[EFerrari]

15. In the real world, people are crossing party lines to vote for Obama.

[Jersey Devil]

18. sure, in Hillaryland

That's about it

[hokies4ever]

27. What does it say about someone who loses to someone who is 'unelectable'

Hillary turned out to be unelectable against Obama. Is your argument that two unelectables make an electable? :rofl:

[Mass]

28. Most often by people who are afraid to say they are racist.\nt

[ElsewheresDaughter]

34. are you calling me a racist?

[Mass]

36. No. I said that those people I know who take this position are also those who are closet racists on

other issues.

Not knowing you, it may simply be that you are following the Clinton talking points, but tell us.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

40. I wouldn't know a single Clinton talking point since I am too busy in real life to find time to ...

visit her site or sit in front of the corporate media TV.

[anigbrowl]

81. So, you're totally ignorant of what her campaign says. Which makes your opinion kind of redundant.

[anigbrowl]

80. Options: 1. Keep posting how 'concerned' you are. 2. Get off ass and do something about it.

Concern trolling is pure passive-aggressive behavior...a demand that everyone stop what they're doing to pay attention to one person's concerns, even though that person offers no solutions or strategies for dealing with these concerns. My response to people who think like that is: grow a spine.

[rodeodance]

62. I posted a Boston Globe article below with the same concerns.

[Tesha]

66. Frankly, I'm "concerned" about their mental health. (NT)

[TheDonkey]

5. TOO LATE. RACIST DEMOCRATS LOST. Now time to get ready for the real fight

no turning back now. Obama is the victor. Support Obama and help combat the racist/necon vote.

[MercutioATC]

6. Do me one favor...watch this video (it's long)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5308196622692748202

Tell me that Brian Schweitzer wouldn't appeal to white rural voters.

[Bleacher Creature]

7. Almost all this crap has been debunked. nt

[EFerrari]

8. They recycle this story every couple of weeks.

The voters they're talking about don't vote for democrats most of the time anyway.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

22. Exactamundo.

:thumbsup: Hey!!!

[FSogol]

10. BS on the article and BS on your analysis. n/t

[papapi]

12. Trolls pilfering through rubbish is not a pleasant sight.

[NYC_SKP]

13. I guess we'll find out soon enough, won't we?!

In the whole universe of web articles, one can find any opinion.
The truth is that Obama has the ability to reach across to many who might not have voted for an AA candidate.
And there are those who never, ever, will, but they are a minority.

I refer you to the Ohio (or was it PA?) gentleman who appeared on 60 minutes who was leaning Obama despite believing he was Muslim.

[AndyA]

14. Of course, the time to have worried about racism and whether or not

America would support a black President came and went long ago.

We had to make history, remember? Instead of keeping our eye on the goal, the media influenced lazy Americans to fall in love with the manufactured idea of "making history."

It's our Wag the Dog moment. And now people are shocked and surprised to discover that bigotry is alive and well in America. Yes, it's wrong, but we should have focused on getting the best person for the job in the White House.

And that person wouldn't be Obama or Clinton. Now we're going to make history, it just won't be beneficial to most Americans. :(

[Skwmom]

16. This is the Clinton meme they've been pushing b/c they don't want

to be blamed if Obama doesn't win. But they've worked so hard in poisoning the well they will be blamed (as well as superdelegates who didn't rally behind the nominee).

[stillcool]

26. It is the argument they have been pimping...

to justify their staying in the race. Part of the "catastrophic event" strategy.

[still_one]

30. If the country is as racist as the OP postulates, then the country deserves mccain

deserves high energy and food

deserves lack of heathcare, and jobs being shipped overseas

However, that is not the reality as will be seen when Obama wins

[BeyondGeography]

20. Obama 283, McCain 255

For an alternative scenario to the Nervous Nellie "analysts."

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/3/1102/08063/782/527059

[BzaDem]

43. Clinton 327 McCain 211

And that's giving all the ties to McCain.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Jun03.html

[stillcool]

23. all race all the time.

Hasn't worked, but still working it. And some wonder why Hillary can not be on the ticket.

[susankh4]

24. Fears "grow?"

This has been on most practical Dems minds since the get go. No "growing" about it. Our fears are being confirmed, maybe.... but "growing?" Not.

[still_one]

25. bullshit, the majority of Americans are not racist. Those that control the medium are

and even taking assuming your premise is right, if that were so, then this country would deserve mccain, because a racist society is immoral, and would deserve to be punished with mccain because of that

However, this is NOT the 50's

[endarkenment]

29. Ah yes - now that this phase is over - on to the next.

The concern, serious concern, hair-rending concern, will be the new form of attack.

[azmouse]

31. ahhhhh.... the electability argument

Gee. Where have we heard that before? :eyes:

[Bread and Circus]

32. Well, he's going to be the nominee. So stop the hand wringing and get to work.

[Kukesa]

84. Poifect; absolutely poifect! n/t

[Annces]

35. I think you are too pessimistic

I think he will win. Racism is not real deep in my opinion. It is more a matter of people wanting everyone to be the same as them. But America has grown up in this regard, especially young people.

[Butch350]

37. Fears grow that Obama can't win

What's your f**king point - this has been out there since his campaign started.

You have the, "Don't Shoot the Messenger mentality" but it sure in the F**K seems
like you enjoy delivering the news!

[Bleacher Creature]

39. Choice terms: "some quarters" "some key states" "some research"

It's just missing "some people" in order to hit the issuendo daily double!!!

[bcoylepa]

41. four things

votes, delegates, money, message
Obama has shown more strength in these areas than McCain has for his party

also anyone who wonders if Obama can beat McCain - they should ask themselves - why hasn't Clinton been able to beat Obama? How has Obama beaten the most powerful Democratic machine for this nomination?? by running a better and more effective campaign - that's how

McCain doesn't even have the strong support of Republicans - that's the real story.

GOBAMA!!

[gcomeau]

42. Suspicion grows...

...that this forum is infested with posters who don't care about the Democrats winning in November and just want to stir up crap... and that they will soon be disappearing.

Let's find out which of our posts turns out to be more correct.

[Mike Daniels]

45. If the majority of America was racist - Obama would be shining shoes or doing manual labor

He sure wouldn't have gotten elected to the US Senate much less even be in a postion to run for president.

There are a lot of reasons for people who aren't beholden to any political party to not vote for Obama outside of race...relative inexperience being one of the foremost.

I'm voting for Obama if only because there needs to be a change of political leadership in DC and I won't throw away my vote on an Ind. candidate.

That said, I'm not going to be that surprised if he ultimately is a disaster either as he's definitely not the best candidate for the office.

[MarjorieG]

46. If you say it enough...The Clinton strategy. Party needs to show guts and wisdom.

Either would be problematic. Her high negatives, and that the map is changing. We are in transition, and she benefits from the Clinton name. Party elders need to go with the future demographics, and not look tentative.

Hillary's only strong moments have been negative, with a whole lot of assumption about her woman movement who are going to Obama. Look at current polls.

Obama has shown presidential mettle with this speech on race, coming back on the gas tax pander to win N Carolina and tie in Indiana, after yet another Wright bomb.

[kevinbgoode]

47. Well, I'm certainly so glad there is no fear that Hillary can't win

I mean, after all, since she has absolutely no negatives and Republicans don't grate at the sound of her name. And because she has such a good record of bringing people together to accomplish things, and has no history of vindictiveness with political enemies. Why, she is such a powerful candidate that her fundraising efforts set records, the crowds coming to see her were monstrous, her ability to stay calm and collected on the campaign trail without any mudslinging so sterling. . .

[Kaylee]

48. Oh noes...we need to find a white man to save us all. *swoon*

[Seabiscuit]

49. I've worried about racist America throughout this primary. And the Wright flap just made it all

a lot worse for Obama.

For the sake of the party and the country I hope beyond hope that I'm wrong, but I also hope beyond hope that we don't have to find out the hard way.

[demokatgurrl]

50. Isn't the Guardian a UK right-wing rag? n/t

[BlooInBloo]

51. (shrug) Maybe white folks can't accept a black President....

even if he's clearly the best for their own interests.

We're about to find out a lot about the character of the American people.

What was that line from Mississippi Burning? Something like: "my uncle wouldn't buy a loaf of bread from a nigger even if he was starving".

[Marrah_G]

52. I do not think he will win- I hope he does, but I just have a feeling he wil lose

I hope, for the sake of my kids, that all of b you are right and that I am wrong.

He has my vote (if he gets the nomination), just not my confidence.

[Kaylee]

54. The man had over 1.5 million individual donors to his campaign..

turned out over 80,000 people in one city to hear him speak. Apolitical friends of mine are calling his campaign offices to volunteer. If we work our asses off for him, instead of cowering in the corner afraid the racist won't like us....he will win.

[Marrah_G]

63. Who said anything about cowering?

That doesn't change the fact that I have very little confidence in him.

Now I had TONS of confidence in Kerry- I think I drank (drinking for me is a very rare thing) and cried for 3 days after he conceded.

Perhaps at some point he will inspire my confidence in him, I hope he does and like I said, I really hope I am wrong.

Just being bluntly honest.

[Abacus]

53. Obama has been fighting a war on two fronts, McCain goes unchallenged and he's still winning

event by modest projections, 276 - 238 & 24 tied. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Jun03.html

My running projection: 307 - 231
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska (1)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

Edit: fixed one.

[Abacus]

55. dupe

[Douglas Carpenter]

56. If you REALLY believe Obama cannot win -- here is your chance to make a whole ton of money

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch /

Actually since this graph was created earlier today - the financial prediction markets are now speculating at a 59% chance that Sen. Obama will win the White House and a 36% chance that Sen. McCain will win the White House.

Just think, if you are genuinely convinced that Sen. Obama will lose, if you are right -- you can more than double your money!!!

$36,000 can be turned into $100,000 by the morning of November 5, 2008!!!

[smoogatz]

57. Obama's BLACK?!?!?!111?!?!?/??!?!?111!

Holy SHIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTT!11!!!11!!11 We're DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cali_Democrat]

58. concern trolls must die

[rodeodance]

59. Boston Globe: Trouble signs as Obama closes in

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/06/03/trouble_signs_as_obama_closes_in?mode=PF

Trouble signs as Obama closes in
Doubts on extent of his appeal; Signals are mixed on Clinton plans

By Scott Helman, Globe Staff | June 3, 2008

Fifty-six contests. Hundreds of millions of dollars raised and spent. More than 35 million votes cast. And, finally, five months later, one apparent winner.

Barely.

As the epic Democratic presidential primary battle finally comes to conclusion today with votes in South Dakota and Montana, Senator Barack Obama is trying to round up enough superdelegate endorsements so he can declare victory by reaching the threshold of 2,118 delegates required to seal the nomination. He was 41.5 short as of last night, with 31 at stake in today's contests.

But even as Hillary Clinton sends mixed signals about her willingness to leave the race, Obama, unlike his counterparts in recent presidential cycles, is not exactly sprinting across the finish line.

Over the last three months, the Illinois senator has won six of 14 contests, one less than the seven Clinton has won. (They essentially tied in Texas as she won the primary and he won the caucus.) A loss to Clinton in either primary today would underscore Obama's relatively weak finish and make his narrow victory over the New York senator slimmer.

"Usually there's this I-want-to-be-with-the-winner mentality, and you're not seeing that this time," said David Johnson, a Republican pollster who heads the firm Stra tegic Vision.

Obama and his supporters contend that victory is victory, and that the nomination contest has always been a race for delegates. But some analysts say his less-than-overwhelming recent showing signals trouble - or at least hurdles - as he begins a general election campaign against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

"To me it indicates he's weaker than people would hope," said Harwood McClerking, a political scientist at Ohio State University. "I was surprised that he's been regularly losing over the last month-and-a-half when people had given him the election."............

[tblue37]

60. Now that Obama is our candidate, we will actively begin to inform the

voters about McCain and his record. Right now he is enjoying the press's cover-up of his record and his comments, but with the primaries over, the Democratic Party can actually begin running against McCain rather than against itself.

Also, those oceans of people who attend Obama's rallies--and the astonishing 1.5 million donors who have ensured that his war chest trumps everyone else's--include many new Dem voters. I think that the small number of Democrats who will switch to McCain or stay home will be counterbalanced by the many new Dem voters, including independents and moderate Dems who are sick to death of the criminal Republican administration.

I also think it is significant that just a few weeks ago running against Obama didn't help the Republicans win three elections in Republican stronghold districts. Obama has coattails.

My only real fear is that the Republicans are adept at stealing elections with voter suppression tactics and hackable electronic machines. I am quite certain that we won more seats in 2006 and by larger margins than we ended up knowing, because I am certain that votes were switched from our column to the Republican column, that Dem voters were unable to vote because of long lines and broken machines, and that good provisional votes were thrown out. It does make me nervous that our party "leaders" are not taking seriously the reality of election fraud.

[BenDavid]

64. With the gop in disarray it says something that mccain is even

close to obama or leading in some key states at this point in time. Maybe by next week after obama is the nominee a poll will come out and give obama a 7 to 9 point lead, but what is amazing obama should be ahead by at least 20 to 30 points.

what I see happening is the dems will pick up about 50 plus members in the House and should pick up about 9 to 12 in the Senate, but the catch will be those same folks that will be voting dem in the congress part will vote McCain for President.

if you obama folks believe the gop is scared of using any means necessary to win the presidency then you are in for a rude awakening. They will not stop when obama says this is racist, or they using the race card. This will not stop the gop.....

Whatever reason white america will not vote for obama cannot be down to the fact they are racist. Hell, it could be they do not trust obama and believe he really does not care about their problems. Look at the exit polls since Wisconsin and it will tell you a lot about why folks will not vote for him. Because he is black is a low percentage. But since Wisconsin HRC has picked up about 500,000 more votes then obama and obama better find out quick how he can get those votes.....

[Goblinmonger]

87. And where do those votes come from?

Are they in states that are going (R) anyway? Are they in states that have no chance of going (R) in the fall? Come on, it is ridiculous to say that you can gauge the general election by the primaries.

[David__77]

65. Possible. Prepare for a big war.

We need to absolutely pulverize McCain. Obama's campaign will not do it. We need to.

[mzmolly]

67. Such bullshit. I come from a "working white class" family and every one supports Obama.

Including former Nader supporters by the way.

[chill_wind]

68. "Senator Hillary Clinton has been making that argument for weeks."

And it's time to let her stop breeding and feeding it. Way past time to show her the door.

[rasputin1952]

72. Almost 75% of the nation is willing to trust a D for change...

there will always be a fringe group of radical RWer's out there...I'm not ready to believe that Obama will lose because of his skin color...McCain will lose because he represents another 4 years of bush, and this nation has had enough. The GOP is bankrupt on ideas, and has banrupted the nation financially and morally...a dirty sock could beat McCain if it had a D after it.

[crankychatter]

74. Even if you're right, you're wrong

too late for ANY Democrats to be vehemently echoing this crap

it's over... get aboard or get left behind

[MindMatter]

75. We make our own history

I have no time or patience for assholes who just want to come here and spread negative bullshit this not based on any facts whatsoever.

Off to the ignore bin with you.

These Hillaryis44 freepers just don't quit, do they?

[gordianot]

77. Racist who clothe themselves with Progressive credentials are the worst of all.

Like Republicans they use those who outwardly wear racism, and they strongly deny their manipulation. America has embraced Fascism Light a path not to follow.

[chill_wind]

79. "racism by proxy"..

I am not directing this at this OP in this case, but it's still a valid conversation:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6230265

[democracy1st]

78. man I'm so tired of all this racist shit,fuck them they can kiss my ass

[iconicgnom]

83. This is 2008, not 1908.

The only people really afraid that Obama will lose because of overwhelming US racism are those who have too much affinity with the racist POV - and can't see how the rest of us are getting on.

The US wants change, the US is gonna get it. And I can't be happier.

[and-justice-for-all]

86. I am discrediting this bullshit...

"Republican analysts, meanwhile, are surprised about how healthy their party's prospects look in a year when almost all indicators suggested they should lose. McCain remains competitive against Obama. He even leads in some key states. Indeed, some research predicts he could romp home against Obama." RRRIIIIGGGHHHHTTTT.

[thoughtcrime1984]

88. He does well with whites, except in APPALACHIA and the deep south

He could just as well win in "racist America" as well as Hillary could win in "misogynist America". Let's give the negative talk a rest, and start accentuating the positives of our candidate, and highlighting the MANY, MANY negatives of McCain.

[Prophet 451]

90. The Guardian is dead wrong here

No Democratic president has won the white working class (WWC here) vote since the early sixties. If he runs a strong campaign, Obama should walk the general election (assuming there is one, I have some dark suspicians about that).

Besides, too late now. Barring some catastrophic event, Obama is the nominee. The die is cast...

EDIT: Also, according to a Gallup poll done over the weekend, either Obama or Hillary beats McCain among likely voters (by 5% for Obama, 4% for Hillary): http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/06/gallup-obama-cl.html

[butterfly77]

91. He can win..

this is Hillary's talking point and some believe this shit...

[MasonJar]

92. It would be very strong if Obama wants to win to ask Hillary to be

his VP. The race is iffy otherwise. It may not be pleasant, but nonetheless there are rumblings that worry me. Even though I have been a Hill supporter, I have known that I would go full bore for whichever candidate became the nominee. However, today I was doing a little political jousting with my veternarian (we always get in a debate since he is quite conservative and I am a yellow dog democrat) and I mentioned that though my daughters were liberal like I that my son was a dieheart GOPer (Libertarian.) The vet told me that his sister has been quite liberal for 30 years and yet told him that she did not want Obama because he might fill all the positions with blacks. He said that he had just found out that his very liberal sister is a racist. A friend of mine has been very disappointed that Hill is losing; I sent her info for a friend leaning toward McCain about the "C--T episode. But now she says she herself doesn't like either one and may not vote. She had said earlier that she was not sure she was ready for a black president.