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This is the first time I've had a thread's worth of things to say.
I don’t like at all how HRDC ran the campaign against Obama – I think she chose to go very negative with the kitchen sink strategy, she kept running long after the result was clear and both weakened Obama and made him expend money, time and energy fending off her instead of McCain. But politics makes strange bedfellows, so I want to think about hard about the prospect of HRC as the VP nominee.
The first question is practical – would she help or hurt the ticket at this point?
Hillary as a campaigner.
On her own merits, she’s a pretty good campaigner – though not such a great campaign strategist. She has great discipline – I think everything was according to calculations (even Shame On You), even if the calculations were bad. She would strengthen the Obama message. She could also give greater credibility on some of his potential vulnerabilities – health care, tough on bad guys. She is willing to and comfortable in the traditional VP role of attack dog –she might not be able to do it so well with a smile, but no good attack dog can and I think she has clearly demonstrated what she can do here. So, if she were VP nominee and did her best, on paper and in a vacuum, she would be pretty good.
Unifying the party and bringing Clinton supporters into the tent.
It’s pretty clear that HRC as VP would be a great way to go for this. I can’t imagine Obama supporters staying home with this ticket. I think most of the HRC (real) supporters who had been against Obama would come around in this scenario, and maybe even with energy. In practical terms, this means great turnout among the Democratic base. Obama’s negatives would drop to a much lower level. As for independents, it’s complicated. Obama attracted quite a few – and many of them may dislike HRC. But HRC attracted some too. So does McCain. So could other VP prospects. Maybe a wash as far as independents. I think if the ticket was smart about it, they could do fine with independents. She may also help with moderate Republican women.
Too much change?
Would many voters feel uncomfortable with a black man and a woman on the Democratic ticket? Maybe would lose some white males (hunting dads, military) this way. Probably lose a few this way, not that many who aren’t already inclined toward McCain.
The Clinton baggage.
This is a problem everyone knows about. HRC has the high negatives that won’t go away. The big question is how much it would energize Republican fundraising and turnout. They already have the oppo research, the memes, etc. Would Clinton stories dominate the campaign (including potential new bimbo eruptions). The biggest question is whether this would outweigh the increased energy on the moderate democratic side. Other concern: does Bill outshine Barack, and can Bill be muzzled enough? My theory: He hasn’t lost it, everything is calculated. But it’s a real risk (with some upside too – he can be an effective surrogate) – this all would have to be handled skillfully and with complete internal coordination.
Will she be running for 2008 or 2012?
All the above assumes she would do her best. Should Obama fear that she would really run with him only to position herself for 2012? It’s a real risk. On the other hand, if she is going to try to sabotage him, she can probably do it successfully even if she’s not running for VP. She would have to tread such a fine line here, that she’s probably best off just trying to win.
What about other potential VP candidates?
Webb looks really good. Gore has strengths. Edwards too. So does Richardson, so does Biden, and Sebelius and others. But we can’t combine all their attributes into one person. To be fair, let’s just compare HRC against one of them. According to Intrade, Webb is the second most likely pick, so the strongest one to compare her against. He brings gravitas and military credibility, neutralizes the war hero issue (read his bio – damn!), has folksiness, would appeal to independents, would appeal to white men. Really would add a lot. Again, on paper and in a vacuum, I think he’d add more than Hillary. But this leads to the next question.
If HRC wasn’t VP, what would she do to unify the party, get her supporters to support Obama, and how successful would she be?
Multiple risk factors here. I think she’d at least go through the motions. 50% chance she’d really put her heart into it, and if she did, the number of Democratic defectors would drop by ½ to 2/3. But she might really not go through the motions, or signal that she doesn’t really support him. Then there will be a lot of defectors, and there’s a good chance of throwing the election to McCain. Her choice.
What about after the election?
Maybe HRC and Bill would be distractions in the White House, but who really cares. The difference between winning and losing is huge. VP’s can only do as much as the president allows. She actually could be effective if given the right direction and limited to the right kind of tasks. She has similar policy positions to Obama, so that makes her better than someone who’s close to the Republican dividing line. The key thing is maximizing the chance of winning. My probabilities for each scenario follow:
1. Obama-Webb (Hillary sabotaging) – 40% chance of winning
2. Obama-Clinton (Hillary really gunning for 2012) – 35% chance of winning.
3. Obama-Clinton – 75% chance of winning.
4. Obama-Webb (Hillary campaigns her heart out) – 80% chance of winning
The main factor is whether HRC is on board or not. If the price to pay for doing that is really making her VP, I guess I’ve convinced myself that I can live with it. Then the choice boils down to: how likely is HRC to be on-board if she is or isn’t VP. If 100% both ways, Webb is better. If 0% both ways, Webb is better. If 100% when she’s VP and 0% when she isn’t, HRC is better. My numbers are maybe 90% if she is VP and 50% if not and if she’s promised nothing. Then the question is how high can Obama get the chance of HRC being on board with a promise of a cabinet position or something. The breakeven number would be: 77.5% (and we have to raise that a bit because she might not be able to quite deliver).
Very close to a wash, so I guess I can live with it. Time to heal. What do you all think?
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