And Then There Was ONE.......What Happened?

[Segami]

A few days after this picture was taken in late September, the Washington Post released a poll showing Hillary Clinton with the support of 53% of Democrats, Barack Obama with 20%, and John Edwards with 13%.

And now, eight months later, he's won the nomination. Incredible.


In a nutshell, does anyone have an opinion as to WHAT HAPPENED to Hillary sporting such a commanding lead over all in September only to lose it ALL in the end? Where did she go wrong?

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http://www.jedreport.com/

[jgraz]

1. He ran a great campaign.

I gotta hand it to him. I'd much rather see Edwards in his spot, but the guy kicks ass as a campaigner. No matter what Hillary says, this race was never close.

[Segami]

10. I agree. He did run a great campaign considering what was thrown at him he dealt with controversies

brewing quickly and without hesitation, he put those fires out.

[Spider Jerusalem]

2. She believed in her own inevitability.

She thought it would all be over on Super Tuesday. She had no backup plan. She failed to campaign effectively in states where it mattered. What happened, in a word: hubris.

[Poll_Blind]

4. In a nutshell- YEP! n/t

PB

[MrsT]

3. Her advisers were awful

she lost because of them, in my opinion.

[BlooInBloo]

5. Like a lot of "favorites", she thought that just showing up would be sufficient...

And like a lot of favorites, she was wrong.

[Patsy Stone]

6. Mark Penn and Harold Ickes happened.

Poor Hill. Bad, bad advice bought and paid (too much) for.

[mudesi]

7. She made the rookie mistake

She underestimated her opponent.

Arrogance, ladies and gentlemen. You can sum it up with that one word.

[SteppingRazor]

8. I actually predicted an Obama win back in Dec. 2006:

http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/2007/01/your_choice_for_08_mike_huckab.html


Of course, in that same blog entry, I predicted a Mike Huckabee win on the GOP side. I give myself points for predicting the last-minute rise of the Huckster, but the fact remains that I somewhat overestimated his abilities.

In any case, as for Obama, it's a snowball effect. Clinton started out equally loathed on the far left and the far right. With the primary base often more-left than the Democratic voting base of the general election, Clinton's initial support for the war proved disastrous. Primary voters wanted an alternative, and Obama filled a niche, and did so quite well.

Combined with a frontrunning candidate that was weaker than most people realized, Obama's well-run campaign (in terms of image, fundraising and organizing) picked up initial support and then created a snowball effect that made him the viable alternative to Clinton. After the Iowa win, which spelled the end of Edwards' campaign, that effect only increased. Organization in the caucus states (something that Clinton, in perhaps the worst mistake of her campaign, failed to achieve) allowed Obama to rack up early pledged delegates, weather the tougher states to come, and eventually achieve the victory.

[reflection]

22. That's a pretty impressive call

Notwithstanding the Huckabee call. You could have made some serious jack at InTrade or whatever that site is.

[Orsino]

9. He campaigned better and more efficiently.

Just that much better to be able to come from behind and take a slim lead. He looks more like change than she does, and her "thirty-five years of change" slogan was just a tad self-contradictory.

The differences between them aren't that great, on paper, but hope is winning the nomination this year, and the same old faces don't have quite the appeal they once did. I'm betting on hope, though I could vote for either of these candidates--or any of the ones pictured above.

[Bright Eyes]

11. She didn't plan ahead at all.

To her, this was a coronation, not a primary. It was all just a formality, so she never planned past Super-Tuesday.

And Obama did.

[SlipperySlope]

12. Awful advisors, believed her own spin, didn't plan for the long term.

[JVS]

13. In national polling she hasn't netted any support since October. Everyone who wanted her to be...

the nominee had already chosen her 7 months ago. Peaked too soon and not high enough.

[Segami]

20. Yes. Peaked to soon and didn't plan for the loooong haul. Like a heavyweight boxer who takes their

opponent too lightly by not pacing themselves and burns out after the first 4 rounds. Politics is all about timing and pacing.

[ContinentalOp]

14. I think your choice of headline is a little unfortunate

given the history of that nursery rhyme

[Segami]

23. Actually ContinentalOp, the header is from Jed Report , nothing more to it., but I see where you're

with the nursery imagery as it pertains to this campaign.

[TexasObserver]

15. Remember when the debates started, and she acted like she WAS president?!

That's the closest she'll ever come to being president.

[Segami]

25. May not. Its not over till the fat lady in the pant suit sings. She has a lot to still salvage

and make the history books as the first woman V.P.....

If Obama wins the presidency and serves the maximum 8 years, she'll automatically be in line for the democratic nomination in 2016. In the meantime, she can practice playing president and go galloping around the globe giving speeches & exhibiting unconditional loyalty and support for president Obama. I still think this arrangement won't pan out, maybe I'm wrong.

[lojasmo]

16. Great campaign v. crappy campaign.

Yup, that's it.

[TheDonkey]

17. YES WE CAN! Don't let anyone tell you that you CANNOT or IT IS NOT YOUR TIME!

Obama has showed America what can be accomplished with integrity and skill. Not entitlement or circumstance.

[Segami]

26. Its amazing what one can accomplish when they stay the course and

true to the virtues that got them there in the first place.

[Dervill Crow]

18. She and her husband behaved despicably.

That's pretty much how she lost my support.

Obama remained classy.

[Segami]

27. Agreed. They are who they are and will continue to behave as such.

[cottonseed]

19. She was never going to win.

She ran as an incumbent during a change election.
She ignored the small states and didn't understand the primary process.
She was punished for voting for the war (and never apologizing).
She was the target for everyone opposed to Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.
She campaigned with slogans. Obama talked to us.
She had to overcome years of derision and the final days of Bills years (I'll agree with Hill supporters here).
She was a victim of history. This was the absolute worst time/year for her to run.

[Segami]

28. I always felt I was listening to someone recite speeches memorized and rehearsed. I never felt she

made a REAL attempt to sit down to listen and share a personal dialog with the people to best understand the concerns of the many from state to state.

[Diamonique]

21. I agree with everyone here, and I'll just sum it up.

She was looking for states and popular votes. She was a bad candidate, and she ran a bad campaign.

He was looking for delegates. He is a very good candidate, and he ran an awesome campaign.

[Segami]

29. But there was something else about Obama also. I believe many truly saw Obama as representing a

REAL choice for change and giving hope that all is possible if we truly want it to happen.

[trekbiker]

24. the orange pantsuit did her in....

[Segami]

30. I think its a state issued jumpsuit.