Obama-Wexler Strategy for 08

[Asider23]

Obama and Wexler is the real dream ticket, and let me explain why.

Please look at the following map; which contains my predictions of how the election would go with this ticket.

Legend:
Red - Republican
Blue - Democrat
Purple - Swing
Yellow - Democrat with support from Hillary

Let me go state by state and explain my views; starting with the swing states.



Florida: Florida will never be ours unless we have a native on the ticket, It's sad to say but if we win Florida we need to do it by a landslide; or we risk another 2000. With support from Wexler and good campaigning I'm sure we can win Florida.

Pennsylvania: Will be ours and has been for the past several elections; I am not worried in the least about it.

Ohio: Is the second biggest worry, but with support from Kucinich and the way that Obama has been gaining in this state I think we can easily claim it with campaigning and ads.

West Virginia: Should be ares if Hillary agrees to support Obama and campaigns for him in a limited fashion. Otherwise I can see it easily going red.

Arkansas: Would be a swingstate without Hillary campaigning, with her campaigning I see a easy win for us.

Colorado: Is a total unknown; they could go anyways; and will be swayed by public opinion easily. Thats why I predict a Obama win there; but it will be tightly fought.

Missouri: This will be one of the hardest states for Obama to win over, but with enought spending and enought campaign stops we have a small chance of winning it.

Arizona: McCain could possibly lose his home state, because simply; they hate him there. It might take a lot of work that could be put to better use though.

South Carolina: Is typically very republican but the large amount of African American's could cause a swing in favour of Obama.

The 4 midwestern states: These guys can go any which way; but with the state of the economy I expect them to lean Obama, But I promise nothing. It is more likely that Mccain gets them.

Nevada: We were getting it anyways.

The rest of the Red: We were never gonna get them anyways.

The rest of the Blue: We've always had them.

Without a clear win in Florida our campaign becomes a bit risky. Thats why I think it is important that one of the forces on our ticket is Floridian, and someone with experience equally. Wexler is the only one that fits the bill. What do you think?

[LordJFT]

1. image isn't working for me

[anonymous171]

2. It would look way to much like some kind of political favor. imo

[lyonn]

3. Florida is the Big question mark.

Wexler could be the answer. Does he have skeletons in his closet? Otherwise, he comes off well in the media. That always helps.

[AtomicKitten]

4. Wexler blew me away at the RBC meeting.

He was an absolutely amazing surrogate for Obama in that venue.

Wexler and Rush Holt have been out front on election reform since 2000.

[faithfulcitizen]

6. me too, didn't know him before that, but wow.

[faithfulcitizen]

5. whoa, had to do a double take- Indiana won't go blue even if it were Obama/Bayh.

[Asider23]

7. I think it will

Rollover...

[faithfulcitizen]

14. I like your optimism, but this is one of the reddest states in the union, with very low AA's.

Think Alabama, without all the black people.

[Asider23]

8. No one else thinks this is a good idea?

Florida is our most important goal; John Edwards is a close second choice to me but he doesn't help in the most vital state.

[grantcart]

17. Florida is too volatile to place it at the center of any plan.

We could be going fine and a week before the election some incident in Cuba make s the Cubans in Florida go crazy and we lose the election. Plan for a victory without Florida and campaign like hell there to win it as cushion.

[cynatnite]

19. That's why FL and OH have to be treated like conjoined twins...

Blue dog dems and the Clinton's could help deliver either one or both of those states.

If I was Obama I'd have the blue dogs and Clinton's going to every church, gym, and barn in both of those states. I think one of them will go blue...just not sure which at this point.

[grantcart]

20. Ohio is critical but it is also part of a larger set

PA, IN and MI

Florida is too much of a one off thing. Castro dies and people go crazy and Florida could go to Barr lol

[tkmorris]

9. Nice idea, but there are reasons it doesn't work

First of all, the strategy is centered around the premise that Wexler will deliver Florida for us. Wexler is my Rep, and you could not find a bigger fan of him than I am, but I don't think having him on the ticket necessarily carries the state.

The reason is that while Wexler is extremely popular here in his district and in the rest of South Florida, he is about as popular as the flu north of Orlando. We are already going to win big in South Florida, Wexler won't add more than a hatful of votes to the total here. In Northern Florida he is really no help at all, and that is where the more "swing" voters we need to pick up are if we want to win this state. Bob Graham would guarantee a win here, because he is respected statewide; Wexler does not.

Furthermore at the national level Obama's primary weaknesses seem to be a lack of experience as an executive, and ditto in foreign policy. Wexler does not help with that issue at all, he is a relatively unknown Representative who has held no other public office. A lot of people in the "blue collar" areas of the country are not terribly comfortable with Obama, viewing him as something of big-city elitist. A Jewish Rep from Delray Beach Florida is not going to help win over this type of voter.

In short Wexler does not balance Obama at all, appealing to much the same voter bloc Obama already has in his pocket, and may not even deliver Florida.

[Asider23]

10. what would it take to get Graham?

Hmm?

[tkmorris]

15. Not really sure

he ran for pres in '04, but when that didn't pan out he retired. I'm not certain he is energetic enough to take this on, but if he was the pro's would be:

He will carry Florida. As a former Governor and Senator here he is still a very popular and well liked here. Plus he is very well respected in the foreign affairs department. Obama needs someone like that.

The cons are his age. He turns 72 this year and Obama seems to want to present a fresh young face to America.

He has really been away from the limelight since '05, but he was very critical of the war in Iraq from the beginning and remained so until his retirement. Given an opportunity to take a leading role in fixing that fiasco may be just the ticket to pulling him back in, especially if he is feeling restless.

[faithfulcitizen]

13. yep, what you said. Bob Graham is a good choice.

[Thrill]

11. I could see Caroline Kennedy going to bat for someone like Wexler

Its risky taking House Rep. Is he known throughout the state? If so why didn't he challenge Martinez?

[WA98296]

12. Ok, I admit it, I've had a crush on Wexler since last Saturday! LOL

[grantcart]

16. I like Wexler but no strategy should be based on Florida it simply is to volatile place.

whatever strategy is decided it must be based on winning without Florida and working like hell to get Florida on top.

[cynatnite]

18. I think you're optimistic on your swing states, FL, and OH...

We need either FL or OH to win the WH. Hillary and Bill needs to do some hard campaigning in those two states. Get some blue dog dems there, too. Hillary did well enough that I think we could make one of those states blue.

MT, SD and ND will all probably go red. I would put GA blue. I think Obama will carry it.

It'll be FL and OH, though. That's what it'll come down to.