THE MATH Daily Widget – Thursday, June 5 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +10.50

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Thursday, June 5 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +10.50








We see lots of movement in the Intrade markets, but there are no new polls today. Iowa crosses the 80.00 mark today to become the first of our swing states to do so this year. Can we still call it a swing state if it is trading over 80.00? Time will tell.

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What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ Although there was a lot of movement in the markets since yesterday, blue stayed blue and red stayed red.



^ Is this just another spike? There were gains since yesterday in Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Missouri and South Carolina. But at the same time, Michigan dropped 4.50 and North Carolina dropped 0.50.



^ All indices continue to show Obama winning. The projected electoral votes from 538.com and EV.com both stayed put, while my own projection jumped three to 299. Will it cross 300 by this time tomorrow?


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^ This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[fight4my3sons]

1. good morning!

:)

I'm a math dummy and trying hard to follow all of this, but the Iowa thing is kinda big right?

[phrigndumass]

3. Good morning! Yes, it's kinda big ...

A trade of 80.00 means that 4 out of 5 people (willing to bet money on it) now believe Obama will win in Iowa. Only 1 out of 5 people believe he won't win in Iowa.

Think of it like 80%. :D

Four out of five dentists in Iowa choose Obama!

Have a great day, fight4my3sons! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Well when you put it that way I can understand it.

My dad loves OTB. I have to think of it like race horses :D

These math things hang me up (and I'm a teacher) so you have to walk me through sometimes. Thanks!

:hi:

[Kukesa]

2. And Good Morning from me, as well. Nice post. n/t

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks Kukesa!

Good morning! :hi:

[mod mom]

6. On the way to victory! rec'd

[phrigndumass]

7. One more to 300!

:hi:

[Apollo11]

8. Too much math. My head hurts!

I think the main point to take from this is that we are looking at a close race right now.

Remembering what happened in 2000 and in 2004, I don't think we should be paying too much attention to day-by-day poll movements 5 months before the general election.

[phrigndumass]

9. You're right, it is close. :)

Polls should begin to have more meaning near the end of August. In the meantime, it's mostly for tracking purposes. The Intrade markets are interesting to watch, for the swing states at least.

:hi: