Axelrod: We're Working With Dean to Redraw Political Map

[babylonsister]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/05/obama-and-dean-team-up-to_n_105419.html

Obama And Dean Team Up To Recast The Political Map
Sam Stein

June 5, 2008 12:43 PM


Sixteen months after he launched his campaign for the White House, Sen. Barack Obama may, just now, be entering his campaign's most perilous stage. Facing a rift of sorts within the Democratic Party and concerns over the scope of his political base, the Illinois Democrat is pursuing an unconventional path to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave: unlike those before him, he has pledged to redraw the electoral map by putting new, traditionally Republican states in play.

A slew of political factors will determine Obama's success in turning red states blue. But the Senator, in no small measure, will be aided in his task by reforms that preceded his run for the presidency. For all of the hoopla surrounding the candidates, the 2008 presidential election will be the first truly national test of the viability and prescience of Howard Dean's 50-state strategy.

snip//

In early May, the Senator took the first step down that road by launching a country-wide voter registration drive, with the hopes of playing off of his primary successes. The campaign would not discuss how and where Obama would look to open offices, spend advertising dollars, or coordinate resources. Since securing the nomination, however, the Senator is tightening his control over the party. News circulated this week that Obama will persuade the DNC to refuse any lobbyist funding, a stance in line with his own campaign. And a high-ranking Obama official, Paul Tewes, is slated to help oversee fundraising efforts at the committee.

The potential beneficiaries of the Obama-Dean alliance could be numerous. Down-ticket Democrats are not only banking on an influx of resources into their races, but are hoping that a synthesized effort between the presidential candidate and campaign committees provides a political boost even in traditionally hostile locales. The environment is certainly ripe. Already Democrats have ripped three congressional seats away from the GOP in special elections. The Cook Political Report list 27 seats GOP House seats that will be in play, in addition to seven in the Senate.

"It is not that Obama needs what the DNC under what Dean has done," said Thomas Mann, a scholar at the Brookings Institute. "It is that the Obama nominating campaign has reinforced what the DNC was doing. And all of this will be primarily helpful down ticket. It gives Democrats some opportunities to win Senate, House and other legislative contests and over time puts them in the position of turning around some truly red states."

[DevonRex]

1. Let's turn those red states BLUE!!!! nt

[Avalux]

2. I absolutely love this. Democrats are now calling the shots!

Dean and Obama working together is fantastic. :bounce:

[babylonsister]

5. I love it, too, and there's no grass growing under their feet. Talk about

having and implementing a plan ASAP! This portends well for the future!

[underpants]

7. Exactly-shake hands, get face to face, don't write off anyone

you know...run a political party

[MindMatter]

33. Play offense in 50 states

Make McCain fight like hell just to be in the running in Montana, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, and Texas.

We will know we are winning when we see McCain spending at least 30% of his time in these traditionally safe states.

[polichick]

3. I LOVE how beautifully Dean's work and Barack's work fits together now!

[Skidmore]

9. And I love how we are playing an active part in that work

and not being manipulated. We are being told what is going on and bein informed with respect. They are formulating their strategies with us in mind and we need to continue to support them in word and deed. That means campaign efforst, GOTV, voting, donating, contributing ideas, and when the man is in office, helping him to carry out a people-friendly agenda. We are the change we have been waiting for.

[polichick]

11. PA's Obama teams have never stopped working, but...

...this is especially meaningful to me because I worked hard for Dean, knew in my heart that he was on the right track, and was devastated when the powers that be took him down ~ THIS IS SO WONDERFUL!!!

[Skidmore]

16. We caucused for Dean. We left both our Dean and Kerry signs

up and only took them down during this caucus because we believe Obama will win. I'm so proud of both Dean and Obama. They stepped up and took on hard tasks when many of the political establishment on our side were cowering in fear. They did it without selling out on principle. They have worked with intelligence and heart. And, they have my undying gratitude and support.

[polichick]

18. "they have my undying gratitude and support"

Mine too! :toast:

[mopinko]

27. mine too.

:toast:

[polichick]

30. ~~~

:toast:

[Barack_America]

19. Staffers are pouring back into Philly, I can tell you that much.

But that's certainly no big surprise as PA is a perennial swing state.

[polichick]

21. Here in the burbs too - though we kept it going without staff...

...since the primary. I have no doubt that PA will go for Obama in a big way!

[Skidmore]

24. The power of community organization....eh?

We will divert that energy into rebuilding the nation after the inauguration.

[polichick]

26. So true - because now we're fully invested in OUR country!

[mzmolly]

23. As do I. "Yes they can!"

;)

[polichick]

28. All the pieces are fitting together in a way we could never have predicted!

[AtomicKitten]

4. OK, now THAT makes me tingly! Go get 'em Dems!!!!

[Tatiana]

6. Awwwwwwwwwwws

I :loveya: this team!

[BlooInBloo]

8. Using Dean's awesome 50-state strategy as the base, add in Obama's tactical genius....

along with him being the best campaign-runner most of us have ever seen, and you've got a recipe for FOR THE WIN!

[Alter Ego]

10. A year where Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are no longer the only keys

to victory.

Obama can cast a wide net--and Gramps cannot.

[bunnies]

12. I love this. My '04 choice and my '08 choice working in tandem...

Its chokes me up. :loveya:

[Avalux]

14. Extra plus good isn't it?

:toast:

[bunnies]

39. Extra plus super mega massive good!

:toast: I've never been so thrilled to be a Democrat! :bounce:

[polichick]

15. Same here - this is a dream come true!!!

[bunnies]

38. Its our good Karma... for 8 years of shithead.

We are finally getting our due!! :bounce: :toast:

[SoCalDem]

13. It's precisely why republicans ruled the roost for so long..

For decades we kept focusing on two or three must-have states, that ALLOWED for voting chicanery to snatch them away on election night..

By broadening our reach, and helping downticket STATE elections turn blue, we are preserving FUTURE elections for dems too...and we are making it infinitely MORE difficult for republicans to run against us in EVERY state..

Small numbers add up to large amounts..republicans knew this..dems forgot for a while, until Obama reminded them all this primary season :evilgrin:..

and it takes a LOT less money to flip Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, a smidgeon of Nebraska... It also FORCES republicans to spend money they don;t really have anymore, in places they may have not had to spend money before..

[Barack_America]

17. Man do I love that statement! And they've got to be focusing on VA, NC, CO and NM, for starters.

But I do hope they give Texas, SC and GA a serious shot.

[polichick]

22. Which makes that veep spot pretty interesting!

[Barack_America]

31. That's why I like Kaine so much.

His and Barack's mothers are from the same town in KS (great narrative).

He grew up in MO.

He's the Governor of VA.

He was the first national figure to endorse Barack.


I think that makes for a pretty powerful argument.

[polichick]

32. That does make a nice story - plus we wouldn't risk a Congressional seat!

[Barack_America]

41. There's one downside...

The Republican lieutenant governor would take over the last year of his term.

[Drunken Irishman]

35. And he's Catholic.

[Barack_America]

40. That too!

And a former missionary at that!

Which brings me to his only main drawback, he's philosophically pro-life. However, that doesn't seem to have affected his governance much at all.

[WA98296]

20. Dean and Obama - Wow, this is so GREAT!

[BklynChick]

25. I loved that they started the campaign in Virginia today... this is going to be an exciting contest.

Great team!

[suffragette]

29. They make a a positive and powerful pair

Looking forward to a sweep in November

[BenDavid]

34. Lets be real here about the so called Obama effect. Let's take

the state of Ms. for example. Back in the day democrats held everything in this state, but a funny thing happened. Along came the Civil Rights Bill and the so called bigots, racist, semi-bigots all left the democratic party and became republicans. All because of living up to "all men(women) are created equal.

A great day in this state began when blacks began running for office and were elected because not only were they more qualified, folks began voting for all the right reasons. Being Jewish in a state that is as anti-Jew as it is anti-black, it was truly a remarkable time.

But, I write this to say, there is a lot of buzz in Ms. political circles about the supposed Obama effect on our state's election in November. The story is that having Obama on the top of the Democrats ticket will generate a huge voter turnout that will rebound to the benefit of other Democrats on the ballot.

I have no doubt Obama will have a huge draw from the black community and his vote totals will boost the vote results for other Democrats on the ticket, in the House races and the Senate race. Ex Govenor Musgrove is banking on this to un seat Roger Wicker who was the 1st District representative for 12 years before the govenor chose him to serve for the remaining term of Trent Lott.

The problem I see and it is historical in nature, whenever voter spikes upward for Democrats, it spikes upward even more for Republicans candidates. Looking at the state's presidential and gubernatorial elections between 1976 and 2007 leads to only one conclusion that higher turnouts are better for Democrats than for Republicans is just flat wrong.

In 1992 and 96 presidential elections, turnout was low compared to other elections, and Bush 41 and Dole won Ms. by modest margins. In 2000 and 04 voters blew the doors off and came out in huge numbers for Bush 43 and he won by wide margins.

There will be an Obama effect in this state come November and voter turnout could be the highest in the states' history, but if the trends continue as they have, neither Mr Musgrove or Obama are going to like it very much.

But, blacks in Mississippi already come close to voting their percentage of the population. The suggested gains, while they may be welcome, would not be large enough to turn the tide in this red state..Obama, who says his AA heritage changes the game in 2008. What if blacks did vote their percentage of the population in the states he mentions?

Say he gets every black Mississippi vote that Kerry got in 2004. (about 352,500). Then say he gets the Mississippi white voters who supported Kerry (105,200). Then give him all of the 72,600 black voters who would turn out if Mississippi blacks voted their percentage of the population in 2008.That’s about 530,300 total votes for Obama — still short of the 685,000 Mississippi votes that went to George W. Bush in 2004.In sum, he falls short by more than 150,000 votes in Mississippi, about 300,000 votes in Georgia and more than 200,000 votes in South Carolina - even using the most favorable estimates.

Could obama pick up enough white voters in Ms? Anything is possible, but before folks start saying he is going to carry Ms.Ga, etc then one needs to look carefully at the figures. The repubs have a weak candidate in McCain and if this were the time for a democrat to win the state, 2008 would be it.

Plus, this would be a slap in the face to all those so called dems that left the party to become republicans because they did not want to be a part of a party that was for civil rights for all Americans, and the new democratic party DID.

Ben David

[Tatiana]

37. Don't forget about the Barr effect.

Which will help in areas like Georgia and North Carolina.

Personally I don't think we can win Alabama, South Carolina, etc. But I think we have a very decent shot at Mississippi and we will win in Virginia.

[madrchsod]

36. david and howard has the prefect candidate to work with

young,intelligent, has a vision of the future,and millions of young voters.

[ellisonz]

42. If Hill wants to make amends, she can raise money for the DNC...

[Califooyah Operative]

43. I couldn't Ask For Two Better Party Leaders. nt

[bvar22]

44. Obama wasn't lying. This IS change.

Goodbye to the authoritarian, Corporate financed, top down, Clinton DLC.
Hello grass roots, 50 state, Populism!

:woohoo:


"There are forces within the Democratic Party who want us to sound like kinder, gentler Republicans. I want us to compete for that great mass of voters that want a party that will stand up for working Americans, family farmers, and people who haven't felt the benefits of the economic upturn."---Paul Wellstone

[Allyoop]

45. Buy a Democracy Bond

If you haven't already. I increased mine yesterday in gratitude to Dr. Dean and in approval of Obama's direction not to accept tainted money.

The end of the DLC I hope!