The Daily Widget – Tuesday, June 10 – WEA 53.72% 597.00 Obama 295-243

[phrigndumass]

The Daily Widget – Tuesday, June 10 – WEA 53.72% 597.00 Obama 295-243








Indices are slipping back a bit today, as trading speculation increases. After watching the trading over the past month, it seems that the markets have a slightly delayed affect compared to the polls. This makes sense. Polls will go up, and a day or two later the speculation will go up as well.

Missouri is now trading above 40 on Intrade, several days after a new poll shows Obama leading there by one point. The range between 40 and 60 on Intrade is the zone to watch, since this means people willing to bet money on it either aren't very confident or are extremely ballsy.

One new poll today in Wisconsin (Rasmussen) shows Obama's lead there shrinking. The poll shows Obama leading by 2 (45-43) with 12% undecideds. Obama had a six-point lead there in the previous poll.

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ Two of the three projections tracked lose ground today. My own projection falls three from yesterday to 295. 538.com's projection is still hovering around the majority mark of 270.



^ Our WEA Index stays put, while RCP's Poll Average crosses back above the 47 mark, where it hasn't been for a few weeks.



^ After hovering above 600.00 the past couple days, our WEA Total falls back below the majority mark, thanks to speculation in Pennsylvania dropping 5 points since yesterday.



^ This chart shows the delayed affect of the trading markets. Obama's indices on both Intrade and Rasmussen Markets increased today, as other non-market indices drop back from their highs.


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls





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[phrigndumass]

1. Off to work kick

Good morning, fight4my3sons! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good morning!

sorry I'm late :)

Catch ya later!

[grantcart]

2. There seem to be some good buys there in NC SC and IN

even if you think McCain will win there they seem to be way underpriced.

[phrigndumass]

4. It might be good to buy soon, considering Missouri moved up into the 40's today

Those three states you mention could easily follow suit.

[Demeter]

5. Impressive Map You Got There

shows how empty the empty quarter really is!

So near 300, I can taste it! Smells like hot crow!

[phrigndumass]

6. Someone spilled blue paint all over the map :)

We had a crow cookout this past weekend. Obama was at 300 both days! :D

[phrigndumass]

7. Evening kick

:kick: