The Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 11 – WEA 53.72% 598.90 Obama 308-230

[phrigndumass]

The Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 11 – WEA 53.72% 598.90 Obama 308-230








Lots of activity today. Survey USA released a poll today showing Obama now winning in Washington state by double digits (56-39). In addition, Rasmussen has released three new polls which show Obama continuing to lead in New Jersey and McCain continuing to lead in Texas and Georgia. All four polls replace outdated polls with high undecideds, thus increasing our strength of projection by 10% in one day.

Due mainly to the jump in strength, my projection for electoral votes leaps over 300 today for Obama. We flirted with 300 over the weekend, but this morning I am seeing 308 electoral votes for Obama to 230 for McCain. Boo-yah!

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ EV.com stays flat again today, while my projection and 538.com's projection increases.



^ No changes for either WEA or RCP Average today.



^ Ohio and Pennsylvania increase on Intrade since yesterday, while both Carolinas drop slightly.



^ Overall trading shows a decrease today, following the delayed affect of yesterday's drops.


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls





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[phrigndumass]

1. 308 to 230, people! :)

Off to work (:hi: f4m3s!)

[fight4my3sons]

4. Boo-yah! is right :)

I didn't know if I would find you in here this morning. Hopefully your post won't disappear in some strange poof of General Discussion: Primaries destruction at noon today. :P

[jefferson_dem]

2. Thanks for the daily widget, phrigndumass!

...always an education.

:kick:

[DavidDvorkin]

3. Woo hoo!

The blue is spreading on that map.

Should the sentence under the map read "It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue" or "It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trending blue"?