Has McCain Already Given Up on Iowa?

[Barack_America]

Campaign pulls staffers, fearing an uphill battle against Obama's established ground organization.

Edited to note: It is not certain whether the article below is referencing a recent pulling of staffers or a pulling during the caucus campaign. Thanks.

From the AP:

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — A political infrastructure that pushed Barack Obama to victory in the Iowa caucuses and an increase in Democratic voter registration make him the favorite in the state in November, but an intense catch-up effort could put Republican John McCain back in the game, veteran political strategists in both parties say.

"John McCain's problem in Iowa is Obama already has an infrastructure here and McCain doesn't. He pulled his staff out, he pulled his people out," said Iowa House Minority Leader Chris Rants, a Republican. "He has to decide if Iowa is part of his strategy, is Iowa going to be a battleground or not."

Des Moines lawyer and Republican National Committee member Stephen Roberts was equally candid.

"It's a really tough state for (McCain)," he said. "It's possible but it's going to be a long, long road to Tipperary."

Democrats can barely contain their eagerness to start the fall campaign with a candidate who is familiar to the electorate because of the town hall meetings and rallies he held in virtually every corner of the state beginning in February 2007.

Iowa swung both ways in recent elections, going for Democrat Al Gore by just over 4,000 votes in 2000 and favoring President Bush by 12,000 votes in 2004. The state has seven electoral votes to award.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iNxTApa2sQRu0Xx99P3jt2bEXw7gD917U6480


This bodes well for Obama. Very well.

[democrattotheend]

1. That would be nice

And Obama could even make an issue of McCain's decision to snub Iowa during the primaries.

Before I get the predictable response, let me remind people that this isn't GD:Primaries anymore. And not showing up in a state because you are forbidden to campaign is not the same thing as deciding to blow it off.

[Rambis]

2. he should

It is different this time round, no one is going to buy the same old tax and spend liberal, we can keep you safer, gay marriage is a threat load of crap this time!

[Pirate Smile]

3. I hope McCain does decide to put $$$ into contesting Iowa. Waste all the $$$ you want, Johnny, in

your losing effort in Iowa.

[geek tragedy]

4. McCan't skipping a state that Bush won in 2004.

Bodes well, indeed.

[madrchsod]

5. "........long, long road to Tipperary."

jesus h christ who in the hell uses that other than really old people....

god these people are old

[ninja8590]

6. What about religious conservatives in IA?

How is Obama going to swing the ultra conservatives in IA? I mean I'm all for the above being true....GoooooBama! But.....I used to live in Iowa and when I was there it was super religious....are those voters going for Obama too? (I hope so. :))

[Barack_America]

8. 1. They don't particularly like McCain either

2. Obama's choice of a running mate could make huge inroads into that group, nationwide.

My choice, Tim Kaine (Gov. of VA) is originally from the Midwest (MO) and once served as a missionary. McCain's glaring weakness as a Repub. is with the evangelicals. I say, exploit that.

[Pirate Smile]

10. McCain doesn't motivate the religious conservatives. He'll get most of them but there probably wont

be the huge turnout that Bush got in 2004. They don't trust McCain.

[grantcart]

7. Latest poll shows McCain at 38 in Iowa

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=34d61abd-3c0a-441c-b337-262ffcf3489a

Oddly it shows McCain/Huckabee defeating Obama/Sebilius, but these early polls on VP picks are not very reliable.



Iowa: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 21-22 by SurveyUSA. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama and McCain run evenly among men voters but Obama has a big 18 point advantage among women. Among the age groups, the only big lead is the one Obama has among voters under 34. Obama also beats McCain among white voters and independents. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 13 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.

[Barack_America]

9. Then why did he pull his staffers?

Also, Sebelius is consistently weak in those head-to-heads.

I'm starting to think that this is not a name recognition issue, but rather a "If not Hillary, then no woman" issue. She does no better than Hagel or Rendell amongst women in that poll.

[Pirate Smile]

13. I believe they are talking about the caucus. McCain didn't really contest Iowa in the caucuses. He

focused on New Hampshire. Huckabee won the Iowa Caucus. The staffers were yanked in the nomination race. Now the McCain camp doesn't have the built in structure that Obama established when running for the Democratic nomination.

[Barack_America]

16. Ah. That makes more sense.

To be honest, I stumbled across this topic while trolling over at FR. I was curious to see if any of them were planning a last-minute GD-P storm.

In any case, they were discussing this topic and had concluded that the pulling of staffers was recent. I personally was wondering if it had something to do with the flooding.

Anyway, I am shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, that they were wrong! ;)

[Pirate Smile]

19. Obama canceled a Cedar Rapids townhall because of the flooding.

McCain has been running ads in Iowa already.

Plus, the entire state of Iowa has been put on the Clinton enemies list. I believe we are the only state to make it onto the "list". :) http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=152&topic_id=23131&mesg_id=23131

That is Iowa's current status as far as I can tell - along with FLOODED and it is still raining!!!

[progressoid]

11. Jeez, I dunno. Maybe this is the problem....

[ninja8590]

12. lol...where is that from? nt

[progressoid]

14. At a rally in Iowa!

Actually, I remember reading that Haggee was leading them in prayer - but it's still a pathetic display of support.

[grantcart]

15. This article outlines McCain's organizational problems

http://news.findlaw.com/ap_stories/a/p/1131/06-06-2008/20080606155003_20.html

He has only opened 10 regional offices - hopes to have 17 state offices opened by end of the month.

Obama probably had 12 offices in Ohio openned.

[Pirate Smile]

17. Obama never closed his Iowa offices.

Obama's Iowa Offices Are Still Open
By: Steve Nicoles, Reporter

Story Updated: Jan 10, 2008

IOWA CITY - The Iowa caucuses are over, and many campaigns have left the state, but one candidate does not want to lose that Iowa feeling. Barack Obama is keeping his offices open in Des Moines, Cedar Falls and Iowa City. Volunteers are calling people in other states that have upcoming primaries and caucuses. Obama took Iowa by storm a week ago, and the campaign wants to keep that energy. Volunteer Coordinator Nicole Stickel said, “We just want to make sure that energy travels into other states so we figure what better use of an office then to phone bank other states and capture that Iowa energy."

Obama won the Iowa caucuses convincingly with about 38 percent of the outcome.

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/13687812.html

[Barack_America]

18. Sounds like he's going for the heavy advertising/low groundgame approach...

That a certain *other* Democratic candidate tried, with little success. Not to mention the high cost of this strategy and that *other* Democratic candidate fundraised the pants off McCain and still ended up in the hole.

So yeah, we'll see how well this strategy works out for him. ;)