The Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 11 – WEA 53.72% 598.90 Obama 308-230

[phrigndumass]

(Reposted for new forum)

The Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 11 – WEA 53.72% 598.90 Obama 308-230








Lots of activity today. Survey USA released a poll today showing Obama now winning in Washington state by double digits (56-39). In addition, Rasmussen has released three new polls which show Obama continuing to lead in New Jersey and McCain continuing to lead in Texas and Georgia. All four polls replace outdated polls with high undecideds, thus increasing our strength of projection by 10% in one day.

Due mainly to the jump in strength, my projection for electoral votes leaps over 300 today for Obama. We flirted with 300 over the weekend, but this morning I am seeing 308 electoral votes for Obama to 230 for McCain. Boo-yah!

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

* * * * * * *

TRACKING



^ EV.com stays flat again today, while my projection and 538.com's projection increases.



^ No changes for either WEA or RCP Average today.



^ Ohio and Pennsylvania increase on Intrade since yesterday, while both Carolinas drop slightly.



^ Overall trading shows a decrease today, following the delayed affect of yesterday's drops.


* * * * * * *






^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls





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[Jane Austin]

1. Where do these great graphs reside?

Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

4. They are in a monster spreadsheet on my 'puter. :)

Just for you, I uploaded the spreadsheet to a place you can download. Feel free to download the spreadsheet and have fun with it:

http://www.box.net/shared/i9e64p20c4

(anyone can download this, if they are interested)

:hi:

[Jane Austin]

10. My Goodness!

You are a wizard!

Thanks for all that.

I'd love to have that widget for our little private blog. (hint, hint)

L)

[phrigndumass]

11. Feel free to save it and use it on your blog. :)

These charts and widgets are for anyone to use, as long as they are not altered in any way. You have my permission to use them. That would make me proud.

Share the link, and I'll be happy to visit your blog!

[Jane Austin]

27. Is the widget "live"?

Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

2. Responses to f4m3s, jefferson_dem, DavidD ...

Looks like we have a new forum! I didn't get to respond to posters before the switch ...

fight4my3sons: Looks like my post did disappear in some strange poof of the old GDP. :D

jefferson_dem: I appreciate your kind words, and back atcha! :hi:

DavidD: Trading or trending, it's very similar. I use the term "trading" because I am referring to Intrade and Rasmussen Markets, where trading actually takes place. But "trending" is also correct. :7 (p.s., thanks for the excel lesson!)

[fight4my3sons]

23. didn't see this before replying below

:D

[grantcart]

3. You do realize that GD Presidential has been waiting patiently for this?

I hope you have a reasonable excuse for missing the opening.

We can't have an intelligent conversation without our Daily Widget.

[phrigndumass]

5. If I only owned a goat .... :)

I was off dawdling in the yard. Had to mow my acre. Does anyone have a billygoat they could lend me? It would save on gas for my mower, hehe ...

Warning: If I had a goat, I'd probably become bored with it and want something else, like a brain or a heart or courage or a vacation home near the ski slopes of the Kansas mountains.

[EarlG]

6. k&r

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

9. I'm honored, sir.

:hi:

[MadBadger]

7. Looks like I'm a little more optomistic today. I have Obama up 318-220

I have him moving picking up from 2004, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and New Mexico. I also have Obama moving ahead in Michigan. Finally I still have Obama taking 1 out of Nebraska to McCain's 4.

[phrigndumass]

8. Nice! I hope the polls will be split up by district for Nebraska

It'll be interesting to see if we can win in District 2.

Let's go with your math ... I like 318 for Obama better than 308! :D

[phrigndumass]

12. Early-bird dinner special kick

:kick:

[Zhade]

13. K/R

NT!

[helderheid]

14. rec 4 of 1000!

:woohoo:

[phrigndumass]

15. ooga booga smooga wooga!

[helderheid]

16. Thank you SO MUCH for these. MORE RECS!

[Systematic Chaos]

17. Sweet. I put it on the Greatest Page.

Thank you. I'm here every week. Try the fish! :P

[helderheid]

18. YOU ROCK!

[phrigndumass]

19. Helderheid, you are a Rec MAGNET! :)

:loveya: :yourock: :hi:

[PylesMalfunction]

20. K&R

:)

[Greyskye]

21. Now that's some real Widget Wuv!

[fight4my3sons]

22. Good evening, phrigndumass!

glad you reposted :)

I was right about the *poof* post was gone thing

k&r

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

24. K&R, Nice Job!

[grantcart]

25. Virginia is trading at 51 for both Dem and Rep and McCain lost 10 points from the

same polling service. This is the state where Obama had the biggest unity bounce or rather McCain had the greatest Unity slide.

[me b zola]

26. K&R!

:kick: