MSNBC Really Pumping New Poll

[Bullet1987]

This new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll looks very favorable to Obama. He's beating McCain soundly amoung Hispanics and looks very good with women and working-class voters. These were all groups that Obama SHOULD be struggling with according to the MSM and he's not. Obama leading by that much amoung women this early is damn good news...because I don't think that's his ceiling, that percentage will increase with time. Once women voters hear about McCain's stances on their issues and the wounds of Clinton's concession ease, it will definently become easier for Obama (who I think can come close to winning 70% of the women vote if he plays his cards right).

Another issue that could effect the Women vote is how hard the Right goes after Michelle Obama. I have a feeling that if they overplay their hand...many people will be making charges of sexism.

[rsmith6621]

1. I am so Impressed with Obamas ability...

......to immediately and articulately disassemble any attack that McLame trys to launch.....this is one thing that will certainly add confidence about Obamas ability to lead this country out of its current mess.

[Adelante]

2. It's an interesting poll, for sure

In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain among African Americans (83-7 percent), Hispanics (62-28), women (52-33), Catholics (47-40), independents (41-36) and even blue-collar workers (47-42). Obama is also ahead among those who said they voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries (61-19).

Yet among white men — who made up 36 percent of the electorate in the 2004 presidential election — Obama trails McCain by 20 points, 55-35 percent. “That is the reason why this election is close,” Hart notes.

In addition, McCain leads Obama among white suburban women (44-38), group which makes up about 10 percent of all voters that Hart calls “absolutely critical” for both candidates in the fall.

However, Obama has a seven-point advantage (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? Newhouse explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it is white women that usually decide the race. “If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election,” he says, noting that George W. Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25096620

[democrattotheend]

4. Kerry lost white men by 25 points

So if Obama loses them by only 20, he will probably win, assuming Kerry's margin among other groups holds.

[gcomeau]

3. 70% of the female vote...

...would mean a 50 state sweep, or damn close. As much as that should happen, it won't, barring something catastrophic out of the McCain camp.

[Bullet1987]

6. Maybe a bit optimistic yea...lol

[DaveinMD]

5. this poll

was taken before Clinton's speech, so the bounce is likely higher.

[karynnj]

9. That will be interesting to see

I don't think it will - HRC did pretty much what she had to do - and nothing really unexpected. Therefore, I doube it will have much impact. It was in some ways a little late and a little underwhelming. There was nothing I saw done to make up for the hurtful attempt to delegitimize it by creating and pushing the concept of a "popular vote" in the primaries. This seems to still be a problem for some people, but not many. It is also clear that she didn't call off her attack dogs against the Clinton enemies list.

[papau]

7. So this proves the Clinton voters have no where else to go?

[my3boyz]

8. They want to establish him as the leader so they can tear him apart piece by piece. nt