Obama's numbers look good in new NBC/WSJ Poll

[MadBadger]

I was looking at the comparisons to the 2000 election to what the NBC poll shows, and things look very good.

First of all, Gore lost white men by 24 points. In this poll, Obama loses by 20 points. Gore lost White females by 1 point, while Obama is up by 7.

Gore won Hispanics 62-35, while Obama is leading 62-28. Gore lost Independents by 2, and Obama leads them by 5. Among women, Gore won by 11, Obama wins by 19.

So in comparison to 2000, when Gore got more votes, Obama is doing very well in certain groups, and I expect him to improve on these numbers as time goes on, especially women.

[madaboutharry]

1. The GE is a thousand years away.

n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

4. While true, the Democrats in the past two elections have played from behind.

In 2004, Kerry fell down 10+ points to Bush in the late summer, only to creep back into it because of the debates in October. Gore was down big to Bush until basically the final two weeks of the campaign, when he stormed back to take the lead in some polls, or to get within a point or two of Bush.

ABC News and The Washington Post both have daily tracking polls today putting the race at 48 percent for Bush and 45 percent for Gore. The latest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll has the contest at 45 percent for Gore and 43 percent for Bush.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/cnntime.poll/index.html

[MadBadger]

5. Obama will give his best speech yet at the Convention

I think he will get a nice size bump out of there, and McCain cant read off of a teleprompter. So I think Obama will get a much nicer bump out of the convention than McCain will out of his.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I expect Obama to lead most of the summer.

If he goes into the convention up 5, he'll leave Denver up 15, in my opinion. That lead will be sustained, in some form, for the rest of the campaign. McCain isn't a good campaigner and I don't think he'll do extremely well playing from behind.

[MadBadger]

7. I think hes decent on the stump, but awful in front of a camera.

[woolldog]

2. Good analysis.

But there's a lot of time between now and the GE.

What I think doesn't get enough focus is on how to get young people to the polls in November. If that happens Obama will win handily.

[applegrove]

3. Thanks for the intel. It made my day!! Keep it up.