Wisconsin is Obama country! Obama beating McCain by 13

[Thrill]

http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=128513

[rpannier]

1. That makes more sense to me

There was a poll earlier that had him at a 2-3% lead.
I posted that I was surprised it was so narrow.

[Thrill]

5. Probably Rasmussen, I always add a few points to the Dem with his polls

[democrattotheend]

21. Not with this Dem.

I hate to say it, but my boss said yesterday that we need to subtract at least 3 points from Obama's margin in any poll. So Rasmussen is probably more likely to be right.

[MattNC]

2. I'll guess

the reality is probably somewhere between 2 and 13 points. Still, a solid lead for Obama in a razor-thin state the last two elections.

[rove karl rove]

3. that margin ought to hold up

WI is his, lotsa Obama supporters there.

[Thrill]

7. Will he sweep the Midwest?

Not counting Indiana

[rpannier]

10. You'd have to define midwest

If you include South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Kentucky then no he won't sweep the midwest (except for Indiana)

If you mean upper midwest (ie the Great Lakes States) then that's a strong possibility

[rove karl rove]

11. ya you answered it for me

Upper Midwest, probably sweep - and YES I mean any state bordering the Great Lakes except IN and OH's shaky.

Lower MidWest - nah, MO is an option - Obama's vp choice will tell this tale.

[Thrill]

12. Yeah

I guess I mean upper. Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and OH

[mcctatas]

4. On behalf of America's Dairyland...

you're welcome! :evilgrin:

[KAZ]

6. On behalf of WI's big fat udder (IL), Thank You!

We're gonna do this!

[mcctatas]

9. ....

WI's big fat udder? :rofl: I hereby apologize for every "learn how to drive you freaking FIB" that I have ever uttered....

And thank you for letting the country borrow your Senator! :applause:

[rove karl rove]

13. all but Ohio and maybe even that

things could change. He'll also win with the Western dairyfarmers.

MOO-MOO!!!

[thoughtcrime1984]

17. Another Wisconsinite for O'Bama here!

:toast:

[MadBadger]

8. Ken Goldstein was my Poli Sci professor freshman year.

The man knows his shit and I think this poll is on the high side, but still trustworthy. I think Obama is up by about 7 in Wisco right now.

[Rogerio Thompson]

14. Rasmussen has a 3% lead

odd.

[MadBadger]

15. Why is that odd? Polls often show different things.

[fujiyama]

16. They like independents in the state

and Obama, unlike McCain is capable of independent thought. Feingold won his senate seat last time by 10 points. Kerry won the state by 1.

Obama will likely take it by 5% or so. I see a chance to open up a bigger margin than the last two elections.

[StevieM]

18. I think (in the end) Obama will do 3 points better in WI then his national average (eom)

[democrattotheend]

22. Sounds about right

Wisconsin was one of the closest states in 2004, and it tends to be a classic toss-up state that leans ever-so-slightly more Democratic than the country on average. If it weren't for same day registration we probably wouldn't win it. I think that's the reason Obama did so much better than expected in the primary.

[RNdaSilva]

19. He for sure will win the better coast, the left coast...

California, Oregon and Washington.

Let's go for 48...and hope West Virginia and Florida come to their senses to make it 50.

Optimism!

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

20. What's really interesting about his visit...

Is that he's going to Kaukauna, which is about halfway between Green Bay and Appleton. It's a purple area (they elected Kagen last year to represent them in Congress, throwing out an incumbent Republican), so it's very much the "Battleground of Wisconsin."

What I'm saying here is that he's not playing it safe and going to Madison and Milwaukee, where he can count on throngs of adoring Democrats. He's taking it right to the Republican base -- and helping Kagen in what is sure to be a hotly-contested re-election campaign.