Here are the top 10 V. P. picks according to Rasmussen Markets and Intrade Prediction Market

[Douglas Carpenter]

Of course this is only the educated guess of market forces.
Rasmussen Markets does not use real money, but relies on a collaborative effort of analysis. Intrade Prediction Market is real speculating with real money:

http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=68206#

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

1. Both Rasmussen Markets and Intrade Prediction Market speculates approximately a 21.0% chance that Sen. James Webb will be the the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee

2. Both Rasmussen Markets and Intrade Prediction Market speculates approximately a 15.4% chance that Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee

3. Intrade Prediction Markets speculates approximately a 7.0% chance that Sen. Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee. While Rasmussen Markets estimates only 5.0% chance that Sen. Biden will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee.

4. Both Rasmussen Markets and Intrade Prediction Market speculates approximately a 6.7% chance that former Virginian Governor Mark Warner will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee

5. Both Rasmussen Markets and Intrade Prediction Market speculates approximately a 6.3% chance that former General Wesley Clark will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee

6. Both Rasmussen Markets and Intrade Prediction Market speculates approximately a 6.2% chance that Sen. Evan Bayh will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee

7. Both Rasmussen Markets and Intrade Prediction Market speculates approximately a 5.9% chance that Arizona Gov. Bill Richardson will be the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee

8. Rasmussen Market speculates approximately a 5.3% change that Al Gore will be the Vice Presidential nominee and Intrade Prediction Market puts the estimate approximately a 5.5% chance.

9. Rasmussen Market speculates approximately a 4.2% chance that former Sen. Sam Nunn will be the Vice Presidential nominee. While Intrade Prediction Market is speculating approximately a 3.9% chance that Sen. Sam Nunn will be the Vice Presidential nominee

10. Rasmussen Market speculates approximately a 2.9% chance that former Sen. John Edwards will be the Vice Presidential nominee. While Intrade Prediction Market is speculating approximately a 3.2% chance that Sen. Edwards will be the Vice Presidential nominee.

[ccharles000]

1. The only people on there that I like for the VP are...

Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Joe Biden , Governor Mark Warner , General Wesley Clark.

[MrSlayer]

2. It makes no sense to have Gore on this list.

We should be celebrating the end of his second term as President. There is no way he'd accept or be offered the Veep position again. It would be insulting. I think Webb is a poor choice. Too many non-issue issues can be raised with him plus we need him in the Senate. Warner isn't a bad choice but he's looking to run for Senate in 2010. Just having the both of them as close surrogates can win Senator Obama the state of Virginia. Biden, Bayh, Edwards and Clinton voted for the war, Nunn carries no real weight and Barack is already taking 67% of the Latino vote without Richardson.

Wes Clark is the guy that brings everything we need to seal the deal.

[wmbrew0206]

15. Wes Clark has baggage from his departure at EUCOM, if we want a former general its Tony Zinni

Wes Clark is very smart and an able leader, but his departure from EUCOM and Gen. Shelton's comment about him, whether fair or not, is a very big issues that the rethugs will use and have their media lapdogs push.

Tony Zinni brings everything to the ticket that Clark does and does not have any issues about his departure from CentCom.

It just doesn't make any sense to pick a guy with baggage, when you can pick someone with all the same positives who doesn't have any baggage.

[KittyWampus]

33. Wes Clark has no 'baggage' and the GOP will make shit up about anyone.

[MrSlayer]

34. What baggage are you referring to?

Zinni is out of the question, he is not even close to the progressive Clark is. I need you to specifically site that which you are calling his baggage.

[RC]

3. Hillary as VP would be the death of Obama.

I don't think he would want that. Besides Hillary is a DINO. Look who she accepted money from for her campaign.

[greguganus]

26. ditto. n/t

[sfam]

4. Intrade markets...WORST. Prediction. Tool. Ever...

All intrade proves is that often, a crowd full of greedy idiots doesn't have a clue what's going to happen, and is willing to lose their money proving how stupid they are.

[scheming daemons]

10. Intrade got most of the primary races right.....

.

[gcomeau]

20. They're alright for projecting elections.

..but a V.P. selection is FAR different than an election. For primaries and the general they can look at the polling and make educated guesses.

For the V.P. choice they're just trying to mind-read Obama. Good luck with that.

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. I have found a combination of Intrade and Rasmussen Markets a very volatile but accurate predictor -

most of the time.

Of course like all derivative markets it responds very rapidly to rumors and buzz as well as accurate data when it is released,

The numbers can and do change very rapidly.

[TexasObserver]

12. They were wrong about Hillary, wrong about Rudy, and they're wrong now.

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. they had predicted for several weeks now that Obama would win the Democratic nomination

in the early stages the markets probably followed the conventional wisdom that Sen. Clinton and Rudy were the front runners.


That shifted rapidly as the situation shifted.

They also have predicted for several weeks that Hillary would drop out of the race in June.

But at this point and time, it probably is too early to make a reliable prediction about who the V.P. nominees will be.

As typical with markets they are responding to buzz, rumors, insider reports and well as insider rumors and glimpses of whatever news and data is available. As the process moves along I am sure their predictions which are determined by market forces will also shift.

[TexasObserver]

16. So, to be clear, they were WRONG for a year and right the last two months.

And Bear Stearns is a great stock to buy ... last year.

[sfam]

23. This is the issue - all they do is tell you the current conventional wisdom. They don't predict...

anything. They predicted Hillary was going to win for a VERY VERY long time. Far longer than they predicted Obama winning. If they had told us back last August that Obama was going to win, I would have been impressed. Telling us after Iowa, or worse, after Missouri - not so impressive.

[shayes51]

6. I hope it's Hillary.

[highplainsdem]

7. I do, too.

[Beacool]

8. Me three.

:D

[Hatchling]

9. Me four.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

21. Me five

[newmajority]

30. Me six.

No, I didn't say that......


<----- he did.

[musicblind]

27. I hope it's Hillary too n/t

[TexasObserver]

11. They wrong, badly wrong.

[SuperTrouper]

14. It will be a Virginian

Mark Warner, Tim Kaine or Jim Webb...

[TexasObserver]

17. it might be a Virginian, but the odds are against it

[greguganus]

25. Wow! I thought those guys were married with kids! n/t

[mystieus]

18. They couldn't be more wrong... Sebelius is in the top 5 and she's not even on the list.

[OmahaBlueDog]

28. I think there's a perception she failed the audition

Her speech after the SOTU was less-than-inspiring. Also, there's a question of what she brings to the table. Having her on the ticket will not, for example, deliver Kansas to the Obama column.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

19. Sam Nunn?

Why does his name keep coming up? The guy's been out of the game for nearly a decade now.

[OmahaBlueDog]

29. He's a Southern pol with defense cred

That said, he's an uninspired choice, and if you were going that route, go get Bob Graham.

[newmajority]

31. At least Bob Graham isn't a homophobe

As far as I know anyway. But I'm a little concerned about the fact that he just happened to be eating breakfast with Pakistani terrorist funder Mahmoud Ahmad and Bush Crime Family/CIA flunkie Porter Goss the morning of 9-11-01, right as the attacks were in progress. Ahmad was later revealed to have personally funded alleged WTC hijacker Mohammad Atta.

That's very troubling. And I think Graham has a piece of cow heart in his chest as well, which doesn't make him the best "backup" for the President.

[OmahaBlueDog]

32. All you say is true

BUT Graham is beloved in Florida, and could help salve some wounded egos.

Mind you, I'm not saying I think he's a good pick.

[ContinentalOp]

22. How is intrade regulated?

At least with an election or a sporting event the outcome is presumably not known by anyone. But a VP pick? Insiders will know beforehand and could potentially make a lot of money. Not that I think Obama himself or any people high up in his campaign would do that but it's still an odd thing to bet on.

[phrigndumass]

24. K/R for interesting stats! :)

I'd like to see Webb as VP, but I'd be happy with quite a few on that list.