Today's Polls: The Bounce hits the Badger State

[babylonsister]

:wow:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/12/today-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx

Today's Polls: The Bounce hits the Badger State


snip//

In Wisconsin, Obama leads John McCain by 13 points in a University of Wisconsin / WisPolitics.com poll. Strictly speaking, this is the debut edition of this poll, and so we have no trendlines against which to compare. But the poll is conducted by Charles Franklin of pollster.com and his colleague Ken Goldstein, and so should be pretty solid. The continuum of Midwestern states goes something like Michigan- Ohio- Pennsylvania- Wisconsin- Iowa- Minnesota in order of most competitive to least competitive (one can argue that the order of Michigan and Ohio should be inverted). In each of these states, the Democrats have a pretty strong advantage in terms of party identification, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two that might come off John McCain's board if Obama's bounce has some legs.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen shows Obama with an 18-point lead in Washington. We have gotten used to seeing double-digit leads for Obama on the West Coast, but this is nevertheless an improvement from his 11-point lead in Rasmussen's May poll. We now show Obama as having a 98 percent chance of winning Washington. For the sake of comparison, Obama is roughly as likely to win Mississippi or Wyoming as he is to lose Washington.

In Massachusetts, a Suffolk University poll shows Obama with a 23-point lead. While it's not intrinsically surprising to see a Democrat with a large lead in Massachusetts, the state had not been polled that much, and one of the two pollsters who had polled it (SurveyUSA) was showing a relatively close race. Massachusetts has a lot of Hillary Clinton supporters, so it should not be surprising to see Obama's numbers improve there as he consolidates their support.

The modest exception to all of this is in New Jersey, where Quinnipiac shows Obama with a relatively tepid 6-point lead; Obama had led by 7 points in Quinnipiac's February poll of the Garden State. Other New Jersey polling has shown Obama with a somewhat larger lead. Whether the state becomes a fall battleground may depend as much on the Senate race, where some polling has shown Frank Lautenberg surprisingly vulnerable, as anything that takes place at the Presidential level.

Overall, our simulations give Obama a 54.9 percent chance of winning the election; this is his highest figure since March 18. As new polling begins to roll in from states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, that lead is likely to get larger before it gets smaller.

UPDATE: More late-bouncing developments in Iowa, where Rasmussen has Obama ahead 45-38. That 7-point lead is an improvement from the 2-point lead that Obama held in Rasmussen's prior Iowa poll.

--Nate Silver

[Barack_America]

1. Wow. Another poll like that and Wisconsin might just be declared 'noncompetitive'.

And, FYI, the Wisconsin poll bodes well for MI too.

This just made my day.

[still_one]

2. Polls really don't mean much at this stage. Don't get me wrong, I would rather

be ahead at this stage, but the rovian and repuke hate machine hasn't even started

Hopefully, the people will be much wiser this time with lies

[DenverDem23]

3. I have to agree with your post completely! eom

[babylonsister]

4. I hear you, but it's still nice to see stuff like this, even this early. It

counters all the talking heads' dire predictions they spout just to fill time.

[speedoo]

5. On the other hand, McCain's weakness as a candidate is still...

not widely recognized.

There are still many voters whose awareness of McCain is extremely superficial. As those voters begin to see the real McCain. Obama's chances magnify.

[Barack_America]

6. Exactly. This poll suggests that Midwestern independents are looking at McCain...

...and saying, "um, no'.

[On the Road]

7. That's What I'm Hoping Too

a blue midwest could be the key to an Obama victory.

I also agree about McCain -- he has not handled himself well so far. My opinion of him has dropped recently, but not everyone sees the same things.

[speedoo]

8. At this point, it seems to me the key states will be:

Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania. Plus Virginia.

Obama leads in all these MW states, but only by 5 points or less. And Virginia is tied.

Obama needs two of these five states to assure victory.

And I would like to see Obama put Florida into play. He currently trails by 10 there.

[On the Road]

13. Florida is Going to Be Very Difficult

Fortunately, it not essential for Obama. It is essential for McCain.

[speedoo]

14. I agree. And because it's essential for McCain, putting it in play is desirable.

Obama can afford to run some ads there focusing on the seniors. Show them "the real McCain" and his positions on healthcare and social security.

Force McCain to commit some resources there, see what happens.

[Alter Ego]

9. To all those who said Obama would have trouble with traditionally blue states:

Chew on this.

[Bucky]

10. Obama hasn't had his "bounce" yet. All we've seen so far is a post primary correction.

The bounce comes after a big speech and a successful convention. An victory speech following a tiresome wind-down from an overly long primary season is not a "big speech." We will see what a bounce is soon enough. What's happened in the last two weeks has not been a bounce. It's just a matter of the current opinion polls using candidates' names starting to line up a little bit better with the opinion polls that only mention party labels.

[babylonsister]

11. You say potato, they say po-ta-to. I've seen several stories on this

supposed bounce, including this one. Whatever it is, I'll take it!

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

12. I like badgers

http://www.badgerbadgerbadger.com/

[thoughtcrime1984]

15. They're tougher and meaner than they look! nt