Same poll, different spin: Obama Leads McCain, But Race Is Looking Tight

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: Obama Leads McCain, But Race Is Looking Tight
Edge of Six Points Seems Small Given
GOP's Unpopularity
By JACKIE CALMES
June 12, 2008; Page A8

WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama begins his presidential race against John McCain with a lead in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, but not so great an edge as might be expected, given the gale-force political headwinds against Sen. McCain's Republican Party. Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by 47% to 41%, a spread that is twice the edge he had in the previous poll, in late April. Still, that lead is significantly smaller than the Democratic Party's 16-point advantage, 51% to 35%, when voters are asked, without candidates' names, which party they want to win the White House.

The record unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party, combined with economic worries among voters and a broad desire for change, would normally make this "the single best year for an Obama-type candidacy, and the single worst year for a McCain-type candidacy," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican Neil Newhouse. But Sen. Obama continues to do poorly among white male voters, according to the poll. More ominous is his weakness among white suburban women, who generally are open to Democratic candidates and whose votes could be decisive. While Sen. Obama has a slight lead among white women generally, a plurality of suburbanites prefer Sen. McCain.

Some good news for the likely Democratic nominee: Despite suggestions during the nomination contest that many Hispanics and Hillary Clinton supporters wouldn't support him, the poll shows both groups overwhelmingly do.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Friday through Monday, a "propitious time" for Sen. Obama, Mr. Hart noted, as Sen. Clinton conceded and endorsed her rival Saturday. Despite that timing and an "exceptionally strong" year for Democrats generally, Sens. Obama and McCain are in "a very competitive race for president," he says. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.

White men make up 40% of the electorate, and the Arizona senator has a 20-point lead over Sen. Obama among them, 55% to 35%. The pollsters say race does not explain the gap; recent Democratic nominees, all white men, lost big among white men. The pollsters note that pluralities of white male voters say they don't like Sen. Obama and don't relate to his background and perceived values. In contrast, by a 2-to-1 ratio, they express positive views of Sen. McCain and identify with his background and values. The difference is less stark for voters overall. By 50% to 42%, they identify with Sen. Obama, and by 55% to 37% with Sen. McCain....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121322048693265737.html

[NotThisTime]

1. WTH is wrong with these white men? My white Husband has no problem "identifying" with Obama!!!

What are these people, stupid as hell? That's why they identify with McCain? I'm sure they identified well with Bush too & we see how well that turned out....

[EarlG]

2. Fascinating

First the media spends months telling us how Obama is struggling among certain groups that he absolutely can't win the general election without - women, Hispanics, blue-collar workers, former Clinton supporters, etc.

Then a poll comes out showing Obama leading McCain by:

5 points among blue-collar workers
19 points among women
34 points among Hispanics
42 points among former Clinton supporters

Then the media tells us that, wait a minute, the women and the Hispanics and the blue-collar workers and the Clinton supporters weren't important after all, and this poll - which shows Obama leading McCain by six points nationally, well outside the margin of error, and three points better than a month ago - is an indication of how Obama - America's first black nominee of a major political party, whom hardly anyone had heard of couple of years ago - is struggling.

Fascinating...

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

4. They've had to adjust course...

The MSM party line was the Obama would be damaged goods coming out of the primary battle. Turns out that McCain DID benefit from the long march to the Democratic Nomination -- mostly in that the media wasn't paying attention to the jaw-droppingly stupid things he's been saying. Now that he's getting something more like equal time, I expect his number to drop below 40% by the 4th of July.

McCain is the equivalent of an incumbent. He's from the same party and he's pretty much indicated that he's going to stay the course (or do something even more colossally stupid). How often does an incumbent polling at 40% in the summer ever win the General Election in November?

[DeepModem Mom]

6. I think, however, I heard a much more positive spin on the same poll on MSNBC yesterday.

Interesting, indeed!

[ErinBerin84]

9. yep

The MSNBC scroll at the bottom of the screen reads in reference to the poll "Obama is having problems with key constituencies white men, who think that he is too liberal and does not share their values, and suburban women. John McCain's biggest drawback is President Bush."

lol, K...so what "problem constituences" does McCain have?

[last1standing]

11. Right on the mark.

If Obama wins the GE by 10 points the M$M will still be asking why it wasn't by more.

This is all about planting the seeds of doubt.

[AndyTiedye]

3. Perhaps They Only Polled WSJ Subscribers

[DeepModem Mom]

7. It's the same NBC/WSJ poll that broke on MSNBC yesterday...

and has been discussed here. Quite a different take on it, though!

[featherman]

5. Bush lead Kerry wire to wire in this poll, never trailing but never leading

by more than 4%. Obama is already doing better than that 5 months out. Perspective

[DeepModem Mom]

8. True. They're making the point that Obama is running behind the party. But...

I think, for some reason, it's almost always very hard for a Dem to be elected President -- harder than for Dems to be elected Govs, Congress, etc. I think it's somewhat unfair to diminish Obama's numbers in this poll by comparing them to the national party number.

[bullimiami]

10. how about tossing in a dose of sense.

obama is going to blow mccain out in a landslide as big as this country has ever seen.

the ONLY thing that can keep that from happening is massive voter suppression and election fraud.

[Timmy5835]

12. The upcoming election

This presidental election will make Clinton-Dole look like a close race.

[bullimiami]

13. You bet your Bippy.