The Wall Street Journal
Republicans Gird for Big Losses in Congress
By SARAH LUECK
June 11, 2008; Page A5
WASHINGTON -- Republicans are bracing for double-digit losses in the House and the prospect of four or five losses in the Senate, as they fight to hold a wide range of districts and states normally seen as safe for them, from Alaska and Colorado to Mississippi and North Carolina. The feared setback for Republicans, coming two years after their 2006 drubbing, is unusual for several reasons. It is rare for a party to lose two election cycles in a row. And many expect losses even if their presidential candidate, John McCain, captures the White House.
Democrats already hold majorities in the Senate and House. Democrats hold 49 seats in the Senate, and they often have the votes of the chamber's two independents. In the House, Democrats have 235 seats compared with 199 for Republicans. But a wider margin of control in both chambers would give the party a more workable majority, a change that would let it push more ambitious agendas on health care, energy policy and tax issues. While Democrats are already able to pass much of their agenda through the House, many of those bills currently get stuck in the Senate. A handful more seats in that chamber would give Democrats a better chance of overcoming filibusters, which require 60 votes to break.
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Already this year, Republicans have lost three House seats in special elections in Republican-leaning districts, an alarm bell for many in the party as they strategize for campaign season. The dynamics at work: voters' sharply negative views of President Bush and dismal feelings about the direction of the country, including rising oil and gas prices, a weak economy and fallout from the housing crisis. Even though Congress continues to register low approval ratings, voters overall appear to prefer putting Democrats in charge. Much remains fluid in the five months that remain until Election Day, and the presidential contest between Barack Obama and Sen. McCain might sway the outcomes of House and Senate races. Republicans are hoping Sen. McCain will aid their appeal to independents and the white, working-class voters who remain leery of Sen. Obama. Sen. McCain also will deflect attention from Mr. Bush.
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But, many Republicans say privately that, barring a huge gaffe by Sen. Obama, they have little hope of holding their current numbers, much less gaining ground. Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, who is heading Senate Republicans' re-election effort, recently told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that it would be "a great night" if his party can hold Democratic pickups in the Senate to three or four seats in November.
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Beyond the political dynamics, Senate Republicans have the handicap of far more seats to defend than Democrats do, because they won far more seats in 2002, when the climate was more favorable to the party. And they have more incumbents retiring. "There are 23 states that we're defending compared to their 12," said Rebecca Fisher, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "We're in a defensive crouch."
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