This is how we lose:

[weezy2736]

Give Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virginia to McCain, and assume Obama takes Colorado and New Mexico. An electoral 269-269 tie arises.

If this were to happen, there would be a 41-day waiting period where both candidates have a chance to try to sway individual delegates (which has happened 10 times ever), which would be followed by a vote in the House of Representatives where each state's delegation only gets one vote, with a total of 50 (maybe 51? I'm not sure if they count D.C. in this or not.) votes. Republicans control well more than 25 states.

Is this scenario possible? I say yes- Ohio isn't going to be easy, and if there is a sudden change in momentum among voters there and in New Hampshire, who knows what could happen?

Edited once: Damn clipboard

Edited twice: Frantic typing errors.

[cbayer]

1. Your OP is all messed up. nt.

[weezy2736]

3. When my computer starts to overheat, all kinds of fun things happen. Thanks, though.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Yeah, if we run it that way.

[terrya]

4. We're not going to lose New Hampshire.

And I think we have a superb chance of winning Ohio.

Relax.

[weezy2736]

8. I'd agree that we have a good chance, but anything can happen with these dickweeds.

And living in Ohio, sometimes I question whether we can win it or not. There are very many people who are afraid of Obama, for whatever reason.

[dsomuah]

56. It would take a lot to turn NH red at this point.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. That bracket makes a big diference.

[book_worm]

6. Whose giving Ohio, NH and VA to McCain. I think Obama can take all three

and can also take CO and NM. The mistake is to only concentrate on Ohio. We have to expand and Obama is doing that.

[weezy2736]

11. We definetly can take those, and it is leaning that way, but nothing's ever certain.

Sorry, I always prepare for the worst case scenarios.

[Blue-Jay]

7. .

[CreekDog]

36. LOL!

:rofl:

[Bok_Tukalo]

9. I thought a majority of the States' delegations were Democratic

It would take some research, though.

[weezy2736]

10. As of 2004, it was 30-15 republican with 5 split.

I know we made ground in 2006, but I'm pretty sure we didn't make that much.

[Bok_Tukalo]

13. Here is a wiki image

R - 21
D - 27
U - 2

[weezy2736]

17. Huh... well good!

That still makes me worry about the 41-day period in which McCain could get a delegate in his pocket, though. There isn't really a precedent for it, as it's only happened once forever ago when the rules were not quite the same as they are now.

[Bok_Tukalo]

18. The 12th Amendment deals with it easily

The issue may be the Senate and how Lieberman would vote.

McCain's VP choice might be made Vice President. :p



The 12th

... if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;

... The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Nope the New Senate gets to pick the VP and we are almost certain to pick up seats

[fujiyama]

50. Dems will have a larger Senate and House majority in the fall

Lieberman will be irrelevant and hopefully (if Reid has any balls) be kicked out of the party!

[RoyGBiv]

35. You worry too much ...

And, yes, I saw you up-thread talking about preparing for worst-case.

This is not preparation. This is premature moping. Preparation would be pointing out potential problems and then offering a solution to face them.

Self-fulling prophecies and all ...

Now get out there and do something positive and cut it with the negativity.

Thanks.

[weezy2736]

38. I do worry too much, but I work for the positive.

It's my in my nature to see the negative side of things, I try to analyze them to fix them, and I use DU to post those things that I personally can't fix.

Self fulfilling prophecies are merely predictions that aren't acted on. I've already bet somebody around here that Obama would win Ohio, and I'm 95% confident that he will, but part of the preparing for the worst case is trying to figure out what could happen. Not looking at the worst possible outcomes is being ignorant, and as much as it is unpopular, it's necessary.

I intend to act on this to help Obama, and I am weighing my options, however limited they may be. To completely shrug something off isn't the best course of action, either.

[Zynx]

20. Some people forget that 2006 was a landslide.

We flipped, as I recall, about 11 state delegations.

[weezy2736]

22. There's still the chance that a delegate could switch from November, when the elctions are held,

and when the Electoral College convenes, I believe it's 41 days.

[Zynx]

52. We are picking up, at a minimum, ten more house seats.

More likely than not, we are looking at gains that may eclipse 2006.

[Cant trust em]

12. What about Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Pennsylvania

and a whole host of other swing states?

[weezy2736]

15. I counted all Iowa, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania as Democratic,

and counted Missouri as Republican. Basically, I gave Obama the three Pacific States, Hawaii, Colorado and New Mexico, New England (minus New Hampshire), and Michigan/Illinois to Obama.

[Cant trust em]

24. 270towin.com

Good times.

[FrenchieCat]

14. I'm curious......

How do you think we could win?

Am asking because your headline is such a downer. I logged in and wanted to hide your thread without reading it as soon as I read it. In understanding that you have decided to initiate the 1/2 empty glass vision of the upcoming election, your approach reminds me of pessimist without facts to back his grey analysis.

Why are you giving Ohio to McCain? What is it about McCain that makes you think that he would win Ohio after 8 years of Bush, and of war and economic woes. Please provide your insight as to how you figure this. Also inform me as to why the increased registration of African-Americans, new voters and Independents will not change the equation that you are figuring on.

Giving up on Ohio simply because another Democrat won it is supposed to mean that a Republican will now win it? How does that happen?

Thank you for your answers in advance.

[weezy2736]

16. Oh, I fully expect that we will win by winning all the states I had listed, and picking up

Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virginia, with North Carolina, Louisiana, Missouri, Georgia, and Nevada being in play. I was just thinking that if some major event were to happen, I don't want to speculate what that may be, this is one scenario that I'd have to prepare for. It looks like, in a post above, I got debunked, but anything is possible.

[Hippo_Tron]

21. People who are chosen to be electors are fiercely loyal party activists

The party screens these people very carefully to make sure that there are no faithless electors.

And we control the majority of state congressional delegations and we are likely to pick up seats in 2008.

[weezy2736]

23. If it's happened before, I'm sure it could happen again.

I don't see it as likely, but then again, I don't see this situation as likely, either, so... just preparing for stupid shit.

[Hippo_Tron]

26. That was before the party screened these people

[Vinca]

25. If Ohio goes into McCain's column, you can be sure the voters

in some areas will have been disenfranchised, the same way they were in 2004. The difference will be the candidate. I don't think Obama would shut it down the next day without a thorough investigation.

[weezy2736]

27. It really depends. There's a lot of people that I've talked to have serious issues in voting for

Obama. I can only assume that they will begin to slide towards him, but there's the small chance they will not. Ohio is definitely not as blue as it should be; a lot of people blame the Clintons for absolutely every problem in the state.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

31. Utter Bullshit....

Ohio just got done tossing out every statewide elected Republican (except Voinovich, who wasn't on the ballot). Clinton won Ohio (twice) and Kerry won in 2004 - only a series of felonies committed by the disgraced Ohio Secretary of State kept the state for Bush. What's more, the most recent Rasmussen poll has Obama up by nine points and RCP Rolling Average has his lead increasing.

So sell this crap somewhere else, sonny.

[weezy2736]

32. I believe that I live here. Assuming you live in Wisconsin, I have to ask why your opinion on my

state is more valid than mine. I'm not saying that this WILL happen, merely that it has the potential to happen. If things unfold as they appear to be, then yes, Ohio will be blue, and I've said as much in this post.

Also, calling me "sonny" and citing polling data from five months before the election sends mixed messages. If you have some superior experience than I, you would surely know that these polls are useless except to show trends after the election.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

46. I lived in Ohio for twenty years, sonny

where I was an organizer, a Ward Chairman, and congressional campaign staff. Your post was utter bullshit and anybody who know Ohio politics knows that.

The Republican Party in SW Ohio is in complete disarray with no signs of pulling itself together much before August. And the political calculus for a Republican in Ohio is to run up the score in SW Ohio enough to offset the Democratic votes in the Northeast.

Barring a cataclysmic turn of events, Obama is going to win Ohio pretty handily, possibly creating coat tails that will send Jean Schmidt back to wherever in the hell she came from.

[weezy2736]

49. And I've lived in Ohio for 20 years as well.

Anyone can see the trends, I'm not objecting to that. But there is a strong undercurrent that people here will be holding their nose while the vote for Obama, which creates an atmosphere where that could get turned around. The vast majority of my family on both sides have always voted democratic and are considering to not vote at all or to vote for John McCain. There are still some issues that need to be addressed, and to completely ignore them isn't that good of an idea, in my opinion.

I don't mean to discredit you, but you aren't living in Ohio now, so I still feel that I communicate with more Ohioans than you. I have an aunt and uncle in Cyahoga Falls that I visit regularly, an aunt and uncle in Dayton who we spend holidays with, and I spend the majority of my time in Columbus. My family originally came from the Perry County cesspool, if that helps you understand some of the negativity.

And please don't call me sonny, it really feels derogatory.

God, it would feel wonderful to know that piece of trash didn't represent anyone in my state. It would take big coattails to make that happen, but if the people here become convinced of that... that's something I can drink to.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

51. It's meant to be derogatory, sonny

You polled your family, did you? Both sides of your family? And you've been in constant communication with your aunt and uncle? The ones who live in the town that you can't spell?

Well, shit. With exhaustive research like that, it's no wonder you've come to such profound and nuanced conclusions.

I"m going to give you the benefit of the doubt, because at first I assumed you were just a "Concern Troll." Based on what you've told me, I'll just assume that you really don't know much about politics.

[weezy2736]

53. And Co-workers, college friends, former class-mates, the mayors of a few small towns,

a few judges from around the area, as well as dozens of people I've never even met, just talking on the street. No, I don't base my conclusions on 5 or 10 people, there is a strong sentiment from nearly everybody I've talked to.

Both my grandfather and father held public office for an extended period; my uncle ran for governor a few years ago (and lost.) I'm not saying we won't win, I'm saying we need to make sure we win. Why is it so hard for you to concede that it's a good idea to spend effort in Ohio? Do you really believe that polling won't change in 5 months, or do I need to start listing off all the times that it has?

Oh, and I'm so sorry I forgot a "u" at fucking 2:00 in the morning. If you want to judge my intelligence on that, it says a good deal about you, too.

Look, if you want to live in your happy little bubble where Ohio will be an automatic this year after it's voted republican for 6 years, go for it, but don't pester me from the sidelines and try to undercut the effort. Leave me to my devices, gramps, and I'll leave you to yours.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

54. Learn something

Read a book. Live a little longer.

You'd be amazed at how fast your ignorance will just melt away.

[weezy2736]

55. Everything I say below I say seriously.

I'd really like to know what books you'd recommend.

Also, I'd like to know how you came to the conclusion that I'm ignorant. I'd prefer you'd PM me, I'd rather this thread die as fast as it can, but I want to understand where you're coming from here.

[roseBudd]

28. A politically savvy & connected OH GOP judge of over 20 years told me Obama gets 300 electoral votes

so who am I going to believe?

He gave McCain money in 2000, saw him speak. In 2008 he gave money to Ron Paul & Obama. Says McCain has lost whatever he may have had 8 years ago..

[Phx_Dem]

29. Obama isn't conceding anything

to McCain.

[depakid]

30. A popular vote victory/electoral vote loss is more likely

but this scenario is an intriguing possibility for a constitutional crisis.

[JVS]

33. let it sink

[lojasmo]

34. Not only is Obama going to WIN OH, NH, and VA

He's going to win AZ too.

That being said, I'll be working my ass off to make sure he wins MN.

[CreekDog]

37. i'm pretty sure they are not strategizing to achieve the result you worry about

:rofl:

[weezy2736]

39. It's not a result anyone would plan for, but preparing for it gives you an advantage

should it happen. Do you disagree?

[CreekDog]

40. all their planning is undoubtedly towards 270 or more

not 269.

why are you worrying about this? do you think they aren't going to try to win Ohio, New Hampshire and Virginia? isn't that "preparing" as you suggest?

it's just weird to worry about this one specific scenario.

i think you can assume that all the scenarios they are trying to avoid *include* this one because it's a losing one.

so why are you worrying that they haven't thought of it?

:crazy:

[weezy2736]

41. Simply trying to win a state dosen't ensure that you will win it.

That also goes to say that trying to avoid a scenario doesn't mean that it won't happen. It's hard to conceive after all the amazing things that have already been accomplished this year, but failure is still possible, they don't hand the presidency out without an election.

"so why are you worrying that they haven't thought of it? "

I'm not. I'm simply pointing out a scenario that could happen to try to inform people who hadn't thought of this scenario yet. It is abstract, but it is plausible, no one can argue that it isn't if you look at how leads change in polling data from five months before an election.

I'm talking about what would happen on the day after the election. I'm not content to just wake up and have to come up with a brand new strategy on November 5th without any thought of it before hand.

[CreekDog]

42. this is like worrying about being hit by a blue Volkwagen

:rofl:

[weezy2736]

43. In case you're wondering,

70,000 pedestrian crashes/year
85,775,000,000 potential chances per year
= about 0.000000816 chance of being hit by a car

247,431,120 total cars on the road
25,000,000 (close to) active Volkswagens with a total of 7 colors
3,500,000 (close to) blue Volkswagens

70,000/247,431,120 = x/3,500,000
x=990 number of blue Volkswagen pedestrian crashes
So, there's about a 0.000000012 chance of being hit by a blue Volkswagen, or a 0.0000012% chance.

I figure that my scenario, however unlikely, has a much greater chance than 0.0000012% probability.

If those numbers don't sway you, I'd just ask you to just open your mind in the future to other possibilities that you haven't considered.

[CreekDog]

44. ...

:banghead:

[Honeycombe8]

45. How do you have the rest of the states divied up? What about MI? Oregon? There's no problem....

unless the other parts of the strategy fail.

Cough up the remainder of the states, as you figure them.

[weezy2736]

47. As Obama's states, I had:

Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Maine, D.C., and Massachusetts for a total of 269.

Notable exclusions would be Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida, all states that we at the worst have a shot in, and, at best, are currently leading in. That means that the only scenario could only unfold if there is some movement backwards, which can't really be forecasted.

I figured this scenario was the most likely way to end up with a 269-269 split, which in and of itself is very unlikely. My official projection would be to flip Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Nevada, for a total of 322.

[iconicgnom]

48. Days before the GE Reagan's famed "space aliens" might finally arrive and beam down rays

befuddling everyone in the US, causing even level-headed people to vote in absurd ways, causing McCain to win.

Yah, it's possible. Hell, it's much more likely than McCain winning without help from aforementioned "space aliens".