Can Obama WIN North Carolina? Yes or No? Feel free to chime in!

[musicblind]

Okay, okay, I know it's waaaaay too early to accurately predict anything... which is what makes this so much FUN!

So here's the question. Will Obama WIN in North Carolina and shock the country by turning this red state blue? ... Take a guess. Makes a crazy prediction! Answer YES or NO, and maybe give a brief explanation why you feel that way.

I am FROM North Carolina and I will start this off by saying......


YES!

YES WE CAN!

Why? NC's population is made up of 21% African Americans (http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/what_percentage_of_north_carolinas_population_is.html) and you better believe they are ALL going to come out and vote for Obama. This will be historic.

PLUS, look at the number of Universities and Colleges in NC. 52! (http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/library/univers.htm)

PLUS, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, and probably Sen Webb will all make campaign stops in NC to support Obama. I can't imagine that they would not. These are people who are liked in this state.

PLUS, Mike Easley is our governor (a democrat) who will be able to help with Obama's campaign and help organize a great drive to get out the vote using the machines he already has in place from his own campaigns.

There is SOOOOO much more, but I really think Obama has a chance in this state!



So now it's your turn! What do you think? YES or NO! Give it a try, post an answer, it's so much fun!

[angee_is_mad]

1. Yes We Can!!!

This North Carolinian strongly believe this and I'm going to work my heart out for him.

[ccharles000]

2. It will be hard but I think Obama can win here in NC.

[angee_is_mad]

7. Surprise voters

I come in contact with many immigrants who will be voting their first election and it is Obama all the way. Unfortunately, they think once Obama is elected gas will be under $3.00 the day after the election.
I also work in a rural, conservative county which Obama only lost by 4% to hillary. This is impressive, because every other pick up truck has a confederate bumper sticker and tags. I have had white rural men tell me that Obama had they vote, because bush had to go. bush and mccain is the same thing to these men.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. Another hopeful, confident North Carolina checking in. Yes We Can!!! NT

[JimGinPA]

4. According To My Source...

[Thrill]

5. Yes. If he's not afraid to show he is a Christain

That will play big here in NC

[BlooInBloo]

38. Yah, because he TOTALLY runs away from that....

[RazBerryBeret]

6. I think he can

win NC. I don't think it will be an ordinary election. People are ready for this.

[DuaneBidoux]

8. NO. But...'Repukes will panic so much that other marginal places WILL go blue.

For example, Virginia just above.

[musicblind]

21. I hope it makes the republicans panic! And have to spend resources here!

But I do think he has a good chance. The polls for VA and NC look almost identitical. Very different than polls in states like Georgia where McCain has a 9 or 10 point lead.

I will be doing what I can to get to the word out, to get my friends out to vote. (sadly my family will be voting for McCain... but I have plenty of gay friends here who will make up for that fact if I can just get them to the polls!)

[tyedyeto]

9. You, yourself, said the operative words

Okay, okay, I know it's waaaaay too early to accurately predict anything

So why try? It is way too early and all this second guessing is worth.... the paper or webpage (as the case may be) it is printed on.

Focus instead on grassroot campaigning in NC and the reality will happen. Some campaign stops there between convention and election day will help, but the best support will come from those on the ground in ALL states.

[musicblind]

23. You are right

But, personally, I think it is fun to ask the question because I am excited. I really believe we will win. I do think Obama campaigning here is necessary to the cause... but rest assured I will be doing what I can.

I have many gay friends who have not voted before but are very worked up about Bush. I need to make sure that each and every one of them are registered, know their voting place, and have a ride there.

I do club performing at local gay bars. I juggle, and do other circus tricks. I have my own show that ravels a little around the local area to different clubs and we plan to have a fall edition of it. I think it would be awesome to do a mention at the beginning of the program about registering to vote, and actually have someone to register people at the entrance!

[Hippo_Tron]

10. In an absolute blowout he can definitely win Noth Carolina

[bbinacan]

11. No, I don't see Obama

winning North Carolina. The west and the east of the state will go for McCain. Some of the metro areas may go Democratic. McCain wins North Carolina.

[angee_is_mad]

13. Its gonna be tight

be it is definitely doable. At the very least, Obama will make NC competitive.

[musicblind]

24. hmm. I see you're from NC as well.

I might be overly optimistic, but I think with the polls showing 45 to 43... that it is a good shot. But I completely understand your response! You made good points regarding geographical areas.

What part of NC are you from? How do the attitudes of the people you know in that area seem? :)


Thank you for responding.

[bbinacan]

30. I'm from Raleigh.

Wake, Orange, and Durham counties will go for Obama. The counties surrounding the Triangle area, will go McCain.

[patriotvoice]

12. Better than fair chance.

Latest Rasmussen, according to Fox news tonight, was:
45% McCain
43% Obama

Which is so tantalizingly close. With the remaining 12% (6% of which is undecided), we could very easily see a swing to Obama. The fact that Obama chose to come to NC so quickly, and to bring Mrs. Edwards in, speaks volumes: Obama will woo NC heavily. And that wooing, my friends, will hopefully paint us blue.

[onehandle]

14. McCain will sweep the South down here.

Obama will win with states added in middle America.

Georgia and North Carolina are our best chances down here, but I don't see it happening.

Barr could Nader McCain in Georgia.

[ccharles000]

15. ...

I think Obama will win NC but not Georgia.

[onehandle]

16. We have a LOT of Looneytarians here. Barr who served here will campaign here hard.

Hopefully, he will Nader McCain.

[musicblind]

25. I love how Nader's name has become a verb!

lol, it's great!

Lets hope!

[musicblind]

20. hmmm, interesting point about Barr. Though some polls i have seen

show McCain ahead in Georgia by 9 or 10 points. But they show Obama close in NC. In fact, just as close in NC as in VA. :)

It would interesting to pick up states in middle America. Are you thinking Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada right?

[WorseBeforeBetter]

17. If Webb is on the ticket... I say yes.

Webb could steal much of McCain's military thunder (mostly in the eastern part of the state). Webb might also appeal to those in the western part of the state (Appalachia).

[musicblind]

26. I'm not so hot on Webb as VP, but you make a good point!

I'd prefer Hillary, Edwards, Biden, or Sebelius. But that's just personal opinion/preference.

I understand why people want Webb.

And you made a good point about Appalachia. No matter what, we need to send Webb and Hillary both into the mountains to drum up support. They would both go over well with the voters here. I couldn't believe the positive response that Bill got when he came to my small, dry (we don't even allow alcohol) town. It was the biggest turn out for a democratic event in Asheboro's history! (According to our paper).

[Colobo]

18. Yes, why not?

[musicblind]

27. Exactly!

:)

[MattNC]

19. possible, not likely n/t

[Imagevision]

22. There will be less voting machines available to blacks like in Ohio in 04 election also

they had teams of tow truck drivers who would tow someones car as soon as they parked it, (only if you were black)
They did it once they'll certainly do more this time because they have less to work with in McCain.

[musicblind]

28. That is horrible

What do you think we can do to stop that from happening in NC?

[SaveAmerica]

32. That's why we have to have as many volunteers as possible, we have to have dems stationed in as many

voting stations as possible. Get as much money to Obama's team as possible so they can have people ready to fight anything they throw at us.

[musicblind]

29. Kickin muh own thread for NC to go BLUE this fall!!!!!!!

:kick:

:)

[SaveAmerica]

31. Yes, Music, we can. How do I know this? Because North Carolina has people like you in it,

People who are ready to make it happen. Your passion will help Obama in North Carolina. Here's a list I wrote yesterday, if you know anyone in NC who is as passionate as you about winning in November, C/P this and send it to them. Together we can do it, yes we can.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6350846&mesg_id=6350846

[musicblind]

41. I read your post and left a response.

Tried to rec it but it said the 24 hrs time limit had passed :(

I will try and send pass that around. Those are exactly the things we need to be doing here! We need to make sure every Woman, African American, Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transexual, and every youth are all registered and ready to go this fall.

[PermanentRevolution]

33. Definitely Maybe!

We have a shot at both NC and VA, and we should definitely try to flip those two. I'm still not sure we'll be successful, but we'll put up a good fight!

[Bullet1987]

34. He'll need BIG turnout from Blacks and younger voters

The Black turnout I'm not worried about, it's those young voters who tend to be very wishy-washy and unreliable. The state demographic favors him somewhat amoung other things...I think he can do it.

[MattNC]

39. i don't know stats

off the top of my head, but the Obama did a great job turning out younger voters in the primary, especially when considering they had to get a lot of them to vote early due to final exams going on across the state.

[musicblind]

42. What do you think we can do to motivate the young folks to vote?

Registering them is obvious... but what do you think we can do to actually get them to go out to the polls on election day. I am one of those young people and have been frustrated in the past that (even when I offered them rides to the polls in 2004) I couldn't get many of my friends to vote. They would complain about Bush all election and then were too "tired" or "busy" to go DO something about it. They'd say how their vote didn't matter. They were just one out of the millions in America.

This year I am getting a slightly different vibe from some of them. Some of them I think WILL vote. I just wish I knew that extra thing to motivate them. I even had a party to show Fahrenheit 9/11 in hopes it would be motivating. They sure did get angry at Bush, and then forgot about it by the time Nov rolled around. :(

Sadly you can't make people do things they just aren't motivated to actually do sometimes.

[Blondiegrrl]

35. I would be very surprised if Clinton stumped for Obama.

But I do think that NC is within Obama's reach.

[musicblind]

43. I hope she does. She would go over VERY well in NC.

Obama won here, true. But he had a lot of help from AA populations. Hillary is liked here as well. If she could stump for him in the mountains (Appalachia) that would go a long way. Those people really seem to respond to her. I know people in my county (a very conservative county) really responded to her. I want him to win so bad I can taste and I would think that Hillary feels the same way. I have always liked and supported her. I hope she will find the time to help drum up some of the blue collar works to support Obama in NC. Obama is going to do great in with the youth vote here, and the AA vote here. He should do well here with the intellectual vote too because we have 52 universities. The only place he needs big work is the blue collar and Appalachia voters, and that is possible. I bet you Edwards will also be pushing for him here and I personally think Edwards rocks!

[Blondiegrrl]

52. No offense -- I'm just skeptical after the bruising primary battle. But if she does

end up campaigning for Obama, I'll happily express my gratitude.

And yes, I do think she would help him a bit with some of the Appalachian crowd. Some states, like WV and KY, are likely hopelessly lost, with or without Clinton's help. But I think she'd help him in the rural areas of Virginia and North Carolina.

[lojasmo]

36. Yes. It's going to be competitive, but....

Obama's fundraising and mobilization skills are going to be legendary. I strongly feel that we can win NC.

[musicblind]

44. That's the spirit! I really believe we can as well!

Obama has proven he has the campaign skills. We just need to make sure he uses them here, and that his supporters here work hard too. I think that will happen! I think we can win here! Thank you for the awesome response. :)

[lojasmo]

46. We're going to fight for NC. Count on it. EOM.

[alteredstate]

37. Yes you can!

:headbang:

[musicblind]

45. Right on!

I see you are right next door to my state! Looks like you have the right spirit to rock the vote in SC as well! Yes WE can! :)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

40. HE WILL WIN NC!! The demographics are changing by the day! He WILL win!! n/t

[David Zephyr]

47. I believe he can indeed.

It's one of our opportunites this time.

[grantcart]

48. We are either going to win NC and make McCain pay dearly for it

Or we are going to lose NC and make McCain pay dearly for it.

In either case we are going to make him pay big time for NC.

Your analysis forgot to mention that Barr is polling surprisingly well for NC with 6% already.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_060208.pdf

Raleigh, N.C. – Now that the Libertarian Party is on the ballot in North Carolina, Bob
Barr could have a real impact on the Presidential race in the state, according to the newest
survey from Public Policy Polling.
Barr receives 6% of the vote in possible match ups with both Barack Obama and Hillary
Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Obama trails John McCain 43-40, while Clinton
trails him 39-34.
Barr’s strength is with independent voters, with whom he pulls 9-12%. PPP’s previous
North Carolina survey had found voters describing themselves as independents strongly
inclined toward McCain.
“It’s a long way until the election but the early indication is that Bob Barr’s presence on
the ballot could be a good sign for whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s likely to siphon off more voters
who would otherwise be inclined to vote for McCain than he is from Clinton or Obama.”

[Donkey_Punch_Dubya]

49. It would be a monumental accomplishment if he does

Bush won NC by 56.0-43.6% in 2004, by 56.0-43.2% in 2000. There was a 435,000 vote margin last time that needs to be overcome.

Getting 200,000 more people to vote Obama than Kerry is one thing. Then we need 200,000 people who voted Bush not to vote McCain. Finally, we need another 40,000 people who voted Bush to vote Barr (reasonable, since 3.5 million total voted in 2004, so this is only one percent or so).

I think the chances of Obama winning NC are lower than for other red states like CO, NM, VA, IA, NV, OH or even FL. It would be amazing to turn the tarheel state blue, but it's not crucial and it's not very likely. Getting it down to 2-5% would be a great moral victory.

[WA98070]

50. IF MSM covers the McCain screw-ups honestly Obama can win anywhere.

[speedoo]

51. It's a tossup already.

My answer is YES!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6354755&mesg_id=6354755

[jgraz]

53. By November, Obama will be 10 points up in Idaho.

McCain is a fucking disaster. The only hope the Repugs have is to steal it again.

[Moloch]

54. Yes we can!

I think we can win NC, VA, OH, MO and NV...

but all we really need to do is flip Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. Obama currently leads polls in those states and we get 273 electoral votes and WIN!