The Daily Widget – Friday, June 13 – WEA 53.72% 625.20 Obama 312-226

[phrigndumass]

Holy crap, talk about a spike! The delayed affect of the traders is definitely in play today. Go ahead, scroll down and take a look at the chart, I'll wait. You'll know which one just by looking at it ...

...

Impressive, huh? Our 12 swing states have jumped a total of 26 points since yesterday morning! Wisconsin becomes the bluest of our swing states, followed closely by Iowa, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But that's nothin' ... did you see North Carolina? It leaped from 22.50 to 29.90, up 7.40 in one single day.

Five new polls have been released since early yesterday morning. Here's a quick summary:
North Carolina: McCain 45, Obama 43, Barr 6 (Rasmussen 6/10)
Indiana: McCain 47, Obama 38 (Indiana Legislative Insight 6/1)
Iowa: Obama 45, McCain 38 (Rasmussen 6/10)
New Jersey: Obama 45, McCain 39 (Quinnipiac University 6/8)
Oklahoma: McCain 52, Obama 38 (Research 2000 6/11)


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ 538.com's projection for electoral votes shows Obama bumping up a few points to 278. My own projection slips back one to 312 from yesterday's high of 313. EV.com stays put at 304 for Obama.



^ RCP's average of polls shows Obama slipping today.



^ Quite a schwing for Obama! This spike is thanks to: NC +7.40, WI +7.00, NM +5.00, IA +4.00, PA +3.00, MI +1.00. That makes it much easier to deal with the blow that South Carolina has slipped back even further for Obama, down 1.50 to 7.00.



^ The overall closing figures for Intrade and Rasmussen Markets fell slightly yesterday, regardless of the jumps for our swing states.


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


Donate today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du





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[phrigndumass]

1. FYI ... The full weekly edition of THE MATH will be posted later today

Check it out :D

[fight4my3sons]

2. Good morning!

That's quite an impressive, eh, chart there.

I'll be sure to check back later for the weekly widget roundup. It's a big crazy round here this morning with the little boys. :D

[phrigndumass]

3. Hope it's not too much of a handful!

Don't forget your energy drink ... :donut:

Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

4. Nah, not too much

;-)

Thanks for the coffee, I live on it!

Have a good day :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day :7

[grantcart]

7. kick back

[grantcart]

6. This is very signifigant thanks for the good news first thing in the morning.

[grantcart]

8. more details on swing states

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6356681&mesg_id=6356681

[phrigndumass]

12. Nice post, gc

That's what I like to see ... someone using the info we scrape up to provide a snapshot of the race, in whole or in part.

:thumbsup:

[myrna minx]

9. I love it. K&R n/t

[Demeter]

10. Let's Try for 350, then. And a few more Blues south of Mason-Dixon Line

(I'm really aiming for a 48 state sweep, but don't want to appear too greedy).

[phrigndumass]

13. Louisiana and Mississippi would be good ...

Or we could give Cuba one of Florida's half-votes and win it 537.5 to 0.5. A few of the Guantanamo prison guards might want to vote for McScrewed. :D

[helderheid]

11. rec 3 of 312!

[phrigndumass]

14. Aw, you can do better than 312

my favorite rec magnet! :loveya:

[helderheid]

15. KIIIICK!

[barack the house]

16. Like I say supporting Hillary each time she stumps good for Obama deserves a contribution...

The more we can encourage every Democrat to work their heart out for Obama the better let's take this by storm. We need to get each congress person fired up and rady to stump for Obama send them inspiring emails to help.