Swing states jump for Obama - largest one day swing on intrade

[grantcart]

6 out of the 12 states that have been identified for phrgndumas's WEA indicator moved for Obama yesterday.


For full details go here -

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6356260

Swing states that are close to flipping for Obama -

http://nmindependent.mypublicsquare.com/view/nader-is-riding-high
New Mexico shows Obama pulling away - but also shows 6% for Nader

Nader is riding high, poll says

If a new poll is any indication, independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader could be a factor in this year’s race.
Nader, who chose to start his campaign earlier this year by gathering signatures to qualify for the ballot in New Mexico, is at 6 percent in a new national CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll. Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Barack Obama leads in the poll with 47 percent to Republican nominee John McCain’s 43 percent.
The poll, conducted June 4 and 5, surveyed 921 registered voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
As a presidential candidate, Nader received 2.74 percent of the popular vote in 2000. After many Democrats blamed him for Al Gore’s loss that year, he received only 0.38 percent in 2004.
So why, in a year when both major-party nominees are popular among independents, would Nader have significant support?
It doesn’t appear to be coming at the expense of one candidate. Take Nader out of the poll and Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent. But it’s significant that Nader’s support was twice the margin of error in the poll. Assuming the poll is correct, it means that, at the very least, Nader has the potential to be as much a factor in 2008 as he was in 2000.

North Carolina is now within 2 points - Rasmussen and PPP have put the race in NC to 3 points for McCain.
There is no realistic electoral college scenario that shows McCain winning without North Carolina.





Iowa: Obama lead increases Rasmussen and Survey showing Obama +7

Wisconsin poll shows Obama pulling ahead by 13 points
http://www.news.wisc.edu/15313

Obama leads McCain in new poll directed by UW-Madison political scientists

In the inaugural UW-Madison Department of Political Science/WisPolitics.com survey taken immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign, Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 13-percentage point margin in the Badger state.

The survey of 506 randomly selected probable voters was conducted by phone from June 8-10 and was directed by UW-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Fifty percent of respondents said that if the election were held today they would vote for Obama, to 37 percent for McCain. Ten percent were undecided, and 3 percent refused to answer.

Consistent with evidence from other national surveys, the study paints a picture of a hostile political environment in the swing state of Wisconsin for Republicans in 2008.

Eight in 10 Wisconsin voters think the country is going in the wrong direction; President George W. Bush has a favorability rating of only 30 percent; 66 percent believe that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting; and the top two issue concerns are the economy and getting U.S. soldiers out of Iraq.

Missouri continues as the state that is virtually tied. It should see a lot of candidate activity from both sides.

[mamalone]

1. I loathe Nader.

Otherwise, wonderful news!:D

[grantcart]

2. I am suspicious of that number but I also think that what ever people Nader has

Obama will be able to draw people away during the GE campaign.

In any case I think the key number in that poll is that in a neighboring state to his home McCain is only getting 43%

[muryan]

3. I would think there is more of a niche

for Barr this year, as opposed to Nader.

[grantcart]

4. Barr has picked up 6% in NC.

Barr's impact will be directly related to his ability to raise money.

If the Paul phenomnena transfers to Barr then he could have a significant impact.

[Barack_America]

6. Where do I donate?

Just kidding.

Actually, no. I'm seriously going to consider this.

[phrigndumass]

5. That last graph (national poll) leaves an impression on me ...

It seems McScrewed reached his peak shortly after reaching nomination, and he's gone downhill since, while Obama is the highest he has ever been. Let's hope this isn't just a post-nomination bump. I don't think it is, but I'll be watching.

Nader should take another 1 or 2 percent this year. I need to add a separate column for Nader, lol! (already have a column for Barr)

K/R :D

[fight4my3sons]

7. Ugh, I had forgotten about Nader.

k&r

[grantcart]

8. so has everyone else