THE MATH Weekly – Friday, June 13 – Obama 314, McCain 224

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Current Projections
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Popular Vote
5. Probabilities and Potentials
6. Poll Averages Comparison
7. Projected Win Index
8. Links


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1. Current Projections


Obama continues to expand his electoral college lead over McCain this week. His electoral vote count has jumped 14 since last Friday, by my projection. Polls also show Obama gaining another 500,000 votes since last Friday, climbing above 58 million for the first time in my projection, despite the entry into the race of Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. The strength of projection, or the percentage of electoral votes from good polls (those released within the last 35 days and showing less than 10% undecideds), increases 12.1% this week. This increase tells us that pollsters are catching up on polls and replacing old ones with updated ones.


Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 314
McCain – 224
Barr – 0
Nader – 0
Needed to Win – 270


Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,063,275 ... (45.7%)
McCain – 54,027,993 ... (42.6%)
Barr – 225,876 ... (0.2%)
Nader – 47,800 ... (0.0%)
Undecided/Other – 14,581,931 ... (11.5%)


Strength of Projection – 35.9%


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2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

With only 270 electoral votes needed to win, Obama is currently projected to receive 277 electoral votes beyond the margin of error. If all of the swing states voted for McCain at this point, Obama would still have enough electoral votes to win the election. All three sources tracked (538.com, EV.com, and my own projection) show significant increases in Obama's electoral votes this week.












^ PLEASE NOTE: This is not a prediction map. It is a map showing the states that are currently either polling or trading blue for Obama.


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3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The only real change in the strength of electoral votes this week is a small reduction of states within the margin of error and a slight increase of weak states leaning toward McCain.








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4. Popular Vote

Ralph Nader marks his entry into this year's popular vote count this week with a 6% projection in New Mexico. That comes to about 48,000 votes in New Mexico alone for Nader.

Both Obama and McCain show small increases in the popular vote projection this week, while the number of Undecideds fell one-half of one percent. It's interesting to see that Nader and Barr aren't affecting Obama's popular vote projection at all, while McCain's popular vote projection has fallen about 1.5% in the past few weeks.








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5. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage this week is 67.8%, while McCain’s potential advantage is only 48.5% (less than a majority). The difference in potential advantages this week is Obama +19.3% (down from +21.8% last week).


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 178 (33.1%)
McCain – 115 (21.4%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 277 (51.5%)
McCain – 173 (32.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 365 (67.8%)
McCain – 173 (32.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 277 (51.5%)
McCain – 261 (48.5%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 423 (78.6%)
McCain – 115 (21.4%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 178 (33.1%)
McCain – 360 (66.9%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.


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6. Poll Averages Comparison

Poll Averages are good to use to compare our current candidate’s national standings with past Presidential campaigns. Keep in mind that a strong third-party candidate can throw a wrench in the mix (1992 and 1996).


Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 45.1%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)





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7. Obama Projected Win Index (greater than zero is a projected win for Obama)








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8. Links

Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget


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Donate today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du


.


Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.


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[fight4my3sons]

1. damn, this is just outstanding!

I think I have to go back through and read a few more times to let it all sink in, but really, nice work. :thumbsup:

[demosincebirth]

2. I second it.

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks augie

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. Feel free to ask me anything :)

Every week after I post this, it always takes me some time to let it sink in to figure out what all the changes mean. You might ask me a question that helps me see something in a new way!

Thanks! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

7. yeah and we might be here all night

:rofl:

I had totally forgotten about Nader until I read grantcart's post before. I'll have to come back after the boys go to bed. It's too hard to try to read through when they are running around here and playing Mario Kart next me. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

8. LOL!

This is my whole-weekend post, so it'll be here for ya, lol ...

That reminds me of the commercial where the insurance guy shows up to a busy house and the mother answers the door ... and behind her the kids are all running around and throwing pillows and pulling the curtains down. As he's walking away, there's a loud SNAP! and he ducks by instinct.

I bet you have those instincts as well! :rofl:

:7

[L0oniX]

3. Nice n/t

[phrigndumass]

(pssst ... hi!)

:hi: :loveya:

[stop the bleeding]

6. awesome

:beer:

[phrigndumass]

17. Thanks stb

:hi:

[Blue-Jay]

9. I don't like that MOE.

This Moe, however, I adore:

[phrigndumass]

10. LMAO! Nyuk Nyuk Nyuk ...

:rofl:

[phrigndumass]

11. Morning kickers

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

12. gcomeau has a VERY useful chart in another thread about Obama and taxes

It's extremely useful in helping us compare what Obama is proposing and what McCain is proposing. It's so helpful, I bookmarked it. I recommend it for reading!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6359885

:thumbsup:

[Zachstar]

13. Obama is looking good and this is just in the early stages.

After summer ends and the young start to come home and start to get informed again. I think there is going to be another shift towards Obama.

[phrigndumass]

14. That would be great!

I'll bet there are college students working for Obama's campaign this summer. They'll have stories to tell their classmates when they go back to school in the fall!

[davidpdx]

15. Great Stuff

[phrigndumass]

18. Thanks David!

:hi:

[Douglas Carpenter]

16. Recommended!! thanks for the regular updates!!

[phrigndumass]

19. Happy to do it :)

Thanks Douglas!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

20. Afternoon kick ... I'm open to answering questions if anybody has one

:kick:

[4themind]

21. Thanks for all of the work you put into this

definitely appreciated!

[phrigndumass]

23. yw 4themind!

I love it when others find this useful or when it sets people's minds at ease!

:hi:

[SaveAmerica]

22. Thanks for the numbers (with charts!!), tell your SO you are safe, now I see

'in before the lock' everywhere. The wasted is a terrible thing to mind, share ee. Later, Pepe!!

[phrigndumass]

24. S.O. wants Obama to win so badly! (of course so do I)

He reads over my shoulder a lot when I'm compiling these posts, lol ... I get tons of encouragement. He got a kick out of your post (you know which one, lol).

- Pepe :7

[SaveAmerica]

25. !! Got a DUzy and all! Woo hoo!! My life (with an Obama win) is complete

I eat, drink, and sleep Obama winning. I just need to tell my husband to stop waking me up when I'm dreaming about the phrign numbers!! Have a good weekend!

[phrigndumass]

26. LOL! Back atcha! :)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

27. * * * Common FAQ's about THE MATH General Election edition * * *

What does the "strength of projection" mean? Isn't 35.9% kinda weak?


A strength of projection of 35.9% is weak.

Here's how I arrive at 35.9%, perhaps it will help you see what you are already suspecting ...

Of all the states, only 15 of them have what I call good, useful polls (useful for accurate projections). To be good and useful, a poll needs to be current (dated within the last 35 days) AND have less than 10% undecideds.

Here's an example of three of them, for illustration:

1. Alaska has a poll showing McCain leading Obama by 50% to 41%. That leaves 9% undecided, so it is useful. The poll was taken on May 14, or 31 days ago, which is within our 35-day span. Alaska has 3 electoral votes.

2. Minnesota has a poll showing Obama leading McCain by 52% to 39%. That leaves 9% undecided, so it is useful. The poll was taken on June 10, or 4 days ago, which is within our 35-day span. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes.

3. California has a poll showing Obama leading McCain by 54% to 37%. That leaves 9% undecided, so it is useful. The poll was taken on May 20, or 25 days ago, which is within our 35-day span. California has 55 electoral votes.

Since these three polls are good and useful, we add their electoral votes together: 3 + 10 + 55 = 68.

If these were the only three states with good and useful polls, we would stop there and calculate the strength of projection: 68 electoral votes from the good and useful states, divided by 538 total electoral votes possible. 68 / 538 = 12.63% strength of projection.

However, the fifteen states with good and useful polls have 193 electoral votes total: 193 / 538 = 35.87% strength of projection. The remaining states with 345 electoral votes have useless polls for projecting, or 64.12%.

The bad polls outweigh the good polls by 64% to 36%, so it is weak. This means we could be as much as 4% off our projection: I show Obama with 314 electoral votes. A weak projection would mean he could really be as low as 301 electoral votes or as high as 327 electoral votes (4% swing either way). BUT, 301 is above the 270 needed to win, and my Wigand Electoral Average Index shown in my Daily Widget covers that low end (53.72% out of 100%). If the Wigand number stays above 50%, it's an assured win in all projections.


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Why do the polls have to have less than 10% undecided to be considered "good"?


The 10% undecided figure as a cutoff for usefulness is an opinion of mine. It may very well be wrong. :)

I believe it's difficult to project (or even guess) which way the undecideds will break in each state. So if there are a high number of undecideds in a poll, I believe it tells me that a significant portion of the population isn't ready to pick a candidate yet. The undecideds could very well change the outcome of a state's poll.

But over the next few months the percentage of these undecideds will slowly decrease in the polls, and it will make it much easier to project an outcome. If the strength of projection is higher and the race is closer, we need to know that so we can figure out how to win. On the other hand, if the strength of projection is higher and the race isn't even close, we can begin campaigning in areas outside the swing states and try to win big.

I still use all the state polls in calculating electoral votes, but I adjust it up or down based on the strength of projection.


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Can you explain further what you mean by "Probabilities" and "Potentials"?


There are five categories of poll results:
- Strong Obama
- Weak Obama
- Margin of Error
- Weak McCain
- Strong McCain

Strong Obama is when a poll shows Obama leading McCain in a state poll by 10 points or better. An example would be California, where Obama leads McCain 54% to 37%, or Obama +17. California is a Strong Obama state, and its 55 electoral votes go under the Strong Obama column.

Weak Obama is when a poll shows Obama leading McCain in a state poll by between 5 points and 9 points. An example would be New Jersey, where Obama leads McCain 45% to 39%, or Obama +6. New Jersey is a Weak Obama state, and its 15 electoral votes go under the Weak Obama column.

Margin of Error (MOE) is when a state poll shows a tie or shows one candidate leading the other by 4 points or less. An example would be Michigan, where Obama leads McCain 45% to 42%, or Obama +3. Michigan is a Margin of Error state, and its 15 electoral votes go under the MOE column. (These are considered "swing states.")

Weak McCain is just like Weak Obama, except McCain would be leading Obama in a state poll by between 5 points and 9 points. An example would be Indiana, where McCain leads Obama 47% to 38%, or McCain +9. Indiana is a Weak McCain state, and its 11 electoral votes go under the Weak McCain column.

Strong McCain is just like Strong Obama, except McCain would be leading Obama in a state poll by 10 points or better. An example would be Oklahoma, where McCain leads Obama 52% to 38%, or McCain +14. Oklahoma is a Strong Obama state, and its 7 electoral votes go under the Strong McCain column.

Now, add up all the electoral votes in all five columns, and we're ready to deal with probabilities ...

All the electoral votes under the Strong Obama column, where he leads in these states by 10 points are better, are considered "Highly Probable" for Obama to win.

All the electoral votes under the Weak Obama column AND the Strong Obama column (added together), where he leads in these states by 5 points or better, are considered "Probable" for Obama to win. (These are all the states where he leads by a margin greater than the margin of error.)

"Potential" goes one step further: If one candidate wins their Strong and Weak electoral votes, and also wins all of the electoral votes from states polling within the margin of error (swing states), this would give us their "Potential" electoral votes. I show it both ways for the two candidates: how many electoral votes if Obama won all the swing states, and how many electoral votes if McCain won all the swing states. These would include their own strong and weak states. Whichever candidate I'm showing in a calculation winning all the swing states, that candidate is given the "Advantage" in that particular calculation.

"Blowout" electoral votes. If one candidate begins approaching the electoral vote count shown next to his "Blowout" total, it will most likely end up being a blowout (or landslide) election for that candidate.

The numbers shown next to each category are the actual electoral votes in that category. The percentage amount shown next to each category's number is the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes in that category.


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Is it bad that Obama's poll average is lower than Kerry & Gore's or do you expect it to go up since it is early in the game right now?


There's another way to look at Obama's poll average. It's surprisingly high for this early in the contest! It's just below Kerry and Gore's final November results, and that tells us that Obama already has very good name recognition. The long primary fight was good for his profile and publicity.

If we see Obama's poll averages go above Gore and Kerry, that's a sign that Obama is gaining a wider appeal among independents. If Obama's poll averages go above Clinton's 1996 level (48%), this could be a landslide year for Democrats everywhere!


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Feel free to ask me questions, because others may be wondering the same thing!

B-)

[Ysabel]

28. thanks phrigndumass...

k and r...

[phrigndumass]

29. yw Ysabel

Thanks! :hi: