David Plouffe on which states will be the battlegrounds

[madfloridian]

Interesting blog post I just ran across. About the targeted states and which ones are dispensable this time. Big changes.

The coming battleground states

I'm on my way home from a fundraiser with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe at the Capitol City Brewery, site of some of my most memorable political inebriation. (Among other things, it was there that I celebrated the 2006 Democratic victory with my old boss Howard Dean.)

Plouffe mostly talked about which states will be decisive for the
November election. He started off by saying that Michigan, New
Hampshire, and Pennsylvania will be the key battlegrounds. Then he
mentioned a long list of others, in no particular order, New Mexico,
Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa,
Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi. Louisiana, and of
course Florida and Ohio. He said he's happy that he can look at the
map and see 12 ways Obama can win, even without considering Ohio and
Florida. He confirmed what I'd heard informally from the campaign:
Obama will use his money, his broad appeal, and his superior ground
organization to force McCain to spread himself thin and campaign in
states that the Republican nominee would usually take for granted.

Posted by donpedro at 5:19 PM

I like that idea of making the Republicans spread themselves very thin. That was an aspect of the 50 State plan. Dean said he wanted to force Republicans to spend money on safe races.

I think they are wise not to depend too much on Florida right now. I was reading more about the delegate situation today with the JJ Dinner coming up on Saturday. There are still some causing dissension and not willing to just let things settle.

Dems delegate fight turns ugly

Jon Ausman who petitioned the DNC for the settlement, who endorsed Clinton the night before Obama became the nominee...has been sharing some very personal emails with the media. He should be ashamed of himself.

So much for party unity: As Florida Dems prepare for Saturday's Jefferson-Jackson dinner aimed at bringing the party "together once and for all," a spat over the Obama campaign's decision to replace some already-designated Florida delegates with Obama backers has intensified.

And how. DNC member Jon Ausman late Thursday e-mailed Dems (and reporters) choice sections of what he says were e-mails from Obama's Florida finance chair Kirk Wagar -- in which Wagar curses Ausman out and criticizes Sen. Bill Nelson and party director Leonard Joseph.

The highlights: "You (Jon Ausman) f&^%ed us. We are dealing with it. You need to accept the fact that you f*&^ed us."

And of Nelson: "I am getting very sick of (Senator) Nelson making a bad situation worse."

Said Ausman to Wagar: "We are at a point in time when we need to heal and come together. Help me understand how these messages, which you have sent to me in writing, help Senator Obama's campaign."

Wagar sent out an e-mail shortly after, apologizing for the profanity, but suggesting Ausman had used "out of context snippets from some ongoing and sometimes heated arguments we have had over the course of this campaign.

Ausman won't let things heal. Wagar and the Obama campaign should scrutinize thoroughly every single delegate in this state. The state was asked to wait to pick them until the DNC decision but they refused. Jon has no business taking this stuff so public.

So they are wise not to depend on Florida that much. And after hearing the TN Democrats who think Obama might be tied to terrorists....I am glad I don't see them listed either.

[Bullet1987]

1. Florida is beginning to look like a long shot...

[Abacus]

12. Yeah,

#%$#%^%^^**$

*channeling Frank Costanza* "unity now!"

[cultfree]

38. Florida is definitely a long shot

I don't agree with a campaign replacing delegates. Just my personal opinion. State's have a right to run independent of the wishes of political parties and presidential campaigns. Florida is still pretty heated and the demographics don't work in Sen. Obama's favor. His money would be better spent on Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. They all look promising.

[madfloridian]

22. I agree. Obama is liked by many here. but so many undercurrents.

Things beyond his control especially left over from the vote to push the primary forward.

[jerryster]

37. I'm curious.

We all know that if nader had kept out of it FL would have put Gore in The White House. What happened in the last 8 years to push FL pretty firmly in the Repub column?

[That Is Quite Enough]

2. There's no way Obama can even come close here in South Dakota...

But I'm still gonna be campaigning for him! :)

[Cha]

5. Thanks! So the South Dakotans have been

doing so well under bush that they want another four years with the bush toady mccain at the helm?

[That Is Quite Enough]

17. Pretty much.

Not all South Dakotans, though. Just the old, rural folks, who unfortunately make up a lot of our population. The city-dweller, youth and Native American groups are really pro-Obama, from what I've seen.

But who knows. There's a lot of small-government Republicans out here, and a *ton* of religious fundamentalists...so Bob Barr could do some serious damage in a state like this. (Will South Dakota turn blue? Hell no. But it could actually be a close race.)

[Cha]

19. Here's to a sea change in South Dakota.

:toast:

[That Is Quite Enough]

24. I can toast to that

Let's see just how far our big blue style can go!

:toast:

[progressive_realist]

30. Yeah, I think he meant North Dakota

Where Obama is polling rather well against McCain.

[Cha]

3. I like the idea of us not having to

sweat Florida and the Florida politicians(dinos and repukes)can fight amongst themselves.

There's some really good people down there in Florida but the bad ones are in power. I love that state for it's beauty, diversity, and the good peeps but Florida needs to be purged of its cancerous greed.

Was it good when Lawton Childs was Gov, mad?

[madfloridian]

8. I agree, zidzi. Especially this year. Too many are not what they seem.

Just when I think I have someone figured out...then I find out I don't.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. It'd be nice if Bob Graham campaigned with him. Bob was a very popular governor! n/t

[Cha]

11. Yeah, Bob Graham would be great for

a swing through the state with Obama. Wonder what bill nelson will do? I hope not pout.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

13. I don't trust DLC scum! He was awful and deceitful during the whole FL debacle...

He can stay away as far as I'm concerned.

[Cha]

14. Yeah, you're right..

he can go pout in corner for all the good he'd do otherwise.

[madfloridian]

15. Nelson has endorsed Obama, but still causing undercurrents I think.

Mostly about the delegates. I don't think Graham has endorsed anyone yet.

[Cha]

18. Thanks for the update, mad.

We'll stay tuned to what the Florida dinos can think of next. Their little primary push ahead date didn't work out so well.

[madfloridian]

25. Well, the JJ dinner is tonight.

I hope unity abounds. :eyes: Doubt it though.

[Cha]

28. Yeah, we'll see..please

keep us posted if you can:)

[stillcool]

16. I couldn't agree more..

I've had my fill of Florida debacles when it comes to national elections.

[GreenInNC]

4. North Carolina WOOHOO!!!!

Obama is strong down here and with Kay Hagen leading Liddy Dole in the polls, we may make history in these parts

[Cha]

6. Such a sweet history

that would be.

[Labors of Hercules]

9. Heeeeeeeeel yes we will!

[RedLetterRev]

29. It's really cool

that Tarheel voters matter again. I think our Dems have always had good intentions; just not a whole lot of inspiration. Sen and Mrs Obama made a really good impression every time they came through. (I tried to get tickets twice; you had to be ON it to see them.) It's good to see neighbor-folks all fired up. And to Biddy "where you been for six years?" Dole, good riddance. Door/Ass/BuhBYE. (I need to get back to BlueNC quickly...)

Mad, I wish FL could get its act back together. I was living in Ft Laud during the 2000 election (I'd commented on one of your posts a WAY long back) and remember the shock and horror. It seems that there's been little chance of healing ever since then, with the repug legislature rubbing every manner of salt in wounds. I'm still in touch with a lot of good folk in SoFla and St Augustine who still think healing would start with redress. I don't envy your chore and I'm wishing you and all my friends back there a lot of strength.

[anonymous171]

7. 50 state strategy on steroids. GOBAMA!

:woohoo::kick:

[democrat2thecore]

21. That's basically it! Paint it blue, Obama, Paint It Blue!! -nt

[ShadowLiberal]

20. Even better, the lower estimates of Obama's GE money is $300 million to spend in the last 2 months

In that same time period McCain will have only $84 million (well out of the money he can technically raise himself, the RNC and it's state committees can spend money on him, but still $220 million is a big advantage).

That $300 million dollar estimate of Obama's haul gives him a small portion of the estimated money Clinton would have raised from her supporters in a general election.

[ps1074]

27. McCain will have much more than just 80 million

I read yesterday that Rove is behind a new 527 that will have 200 million to swiftboat Obama.

[truedelphi]

33. And since M$M does nothing but promote an anti-Obama atmosphere

McCain doesn't need as much money.

[madfloridian]

23. Really glad to see this...the campaign stands solidly with Wagar.

Considering what is at stake here, I am really glad they took this stand. Jon Ausman shared personal emails with the media, and still supports Clinton instead of Obama. This whole thing reeks. Jon got his press time at the DNC rules committee meeting. He is getting too pushy.

When I first starting using email, the first thing that I learned was that you do NOT forward the mail from other people without their permission, you do not make public what others wrote you in private. Jon broke that rule.

Ausman airs private emails.

I believe the Obama campaign has every right to replace those delegates, down to only about half a dozen...especially considering how this state tried to sabotage things.

"At every turn, Jon Ausman demanded his pound of flesh," Wagar's e-mail said. "This was about Jon's ego and his view that control over party rules was his only power."

With respect to Nelson, Wagar said that he and the senator also disagreed about the process for selecting the delegates. But Wagar insisted that he didn't "malign in private nor in the excerpts Jon blasted out."

Friday, Wagar said, "I wish I'd kept my cool."

Despite the blow-up, Wagar's spot with the campaign is "absolutely" safe, Obama spokesman Josh Earnest said.

"My sense," he said, "is that by the time November rolls around people will realize the stakes are much higher" than "who gets a few hotel rooms."

Yes, the stakes are much higher.

[georgecolombo]

26. 50 State Strategy Is DEFINITELY The Way To Go

I've long believed that Dean does not get enough credit for pushing a 50 state strategy. It was a critical component of Democratic success in 2006 and Obama is smart to reprise the theme in 2008.

[jerryster]

36. I agree with the strategy, but...

... what usually happens is each side comes to a realization that there are certain states that are in the other's column no matter what. Those states are abandoned and efforts shift to the "battleground states".

I realize that this year the electoral map may undergo a profound change and to our benefit. So I absolutely agree with 50 state strategy. We'll see how it goes.

[IndianaGreen]

31. I think Indiana is in play, if Obama fights for it

There is a lot of unhappiness with the GOP here, and the ones most unhappy are people that voted for Bush in '04. They don't much care for McCain either!

Lots of new voters flooded to the polls in the Democratic primary. Lots of excitement about putting a Democrat in the White House, and some of it from people that haven't voted Democratic.

[Faygo Kid]

32. Gotta believe Michigan will go Obama; Sen. Levin also on the ballot.

Granholm is not popular, and there are parts of Michigan where race will be a factor (sadly), but no crap on the ballot like the ugly and disastrous "gay marriage" initiative of a few years ago, and Carl Levin is a shoo-in by a wide margin.

Granholm may not be popular, but except in the Grand Rapids area, Bush is DESPISED.

[Divine Discontent]

34. Florida could be won

if most Obama supporters would group together after the convention and do mass marches every couple weeks for change, passed out flyers, stood on corners with Obama signs, and we spoke up about how such a wonderful feeling this nation has to it right now - and how we'd love EIGHT YEARS MORE OF GOP RULE WITH MCCAIN AND HIS LOVE OF WAR, IN THE WHITE HOUSE!

I spit up a little...

Every commercial made for Obama by other non-campaign entities should constantly talk about how messed up the world and the US are under the debacle of the "worst president in American history" and how McCain aligns right up with B*sh...


One other point - Obama, I believe, will have this won with the massive turnout of the black, youth, and other minority voters who truly feel the energy and change he will bring - McSame just does NOT that big of a young force working for him on the streets.


New Obama & Anti-MCSAME Items Weekly!
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[John Gauger]

35. What was his reasoning on saying that NH will be important?

They only have 4 votes.