The Midwest is where we need to win.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

There is a very interesting map at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:McCainObamaMatchupTWIN.png

It shows is who is leading in each state, with the state's area adjusted to be proportional to number of electoral college votes.

Looking at it, it's clear that nearly all the votes "up for grabs" are in one region of the US

Montana and Illinois are borderline, Michigan and Ohio are only weakly red, and Minnesota and Pennsylvania are only weakly blue.

Between them, those six states make up 92 of the 123 electoral votes not coming from a state that's currently solidly one way or the other (unless I've miscounted, which I may have done).

So my guess is that if one candidate or the other can sweep the "extended Midwest" then they'll win.

[terrya]

1. Illinois is "borderline"?

If Obama can't win his home state, John and Cindy might as well start packing for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue right now.

[Saturday]

2. You took the words right out of my mouth. IL is blue. nt

[40ozDonkey]

3. Right. It's McCain's home state that's "borderline". n/t

[rosesaylavee]

4. I am from Illinois

Barack has been our Senator for a few years now and is very well liked. We have signs NOW in people's yards for Senator Obama for President... against most city ordinances and for some reason, the cops are letting them stay up.

Barack has Illinois. No worries here. The map you posted doesn't show for me but I can tell you that Wisconsin went for Kerry last time and would bet its going DEM this time as well. Minnesota has Franken running - that should turn back to Blue. And Iowa's turnout for Obama in January was phenomenal - would be very surprised if they all didn't return for the GE. Indiana will most likely always be red. Not sure why but that's how it strikes me - perhaps someone from Indiana will weigh in on this thread and give their take on the situation.

[Upfront]

5. Don't worry about Michigan.

It will go Blue.

[sufrommich]

7. I hope you're right.

I live in a very blue collar,mostly white suburb of Detroit.I have no doubt from talking to my neighbors,that my town will go for Obama.I've lost count of how many houses in my neighborhood alone have that hideous orange "foreclosure" sticker on them(I'll bet other Michiganders are seeing the same thing).I have a neighbor who came back from his cottage up north and was absolutely dejected by how many people he talked to who flat out told him they will not vote for Obama because he's black.I worry about our folks in the north,it's very white up there and a lot of them seem unable to to see beyond color.One person asked him if he wanted to see the whole country "run like Detroit",as if Barack Obama is indistinguishable from Kwame Kilpatrick . I hate to pigeonhole whole areas like that and I'm sure he'll get good people voting for him in the north,but I still worry about Michigan.

[dtotire]

6. Need the link n/t