Many historians see little chance for McCain

[Duder]

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080615/pl_politico/11090

[skooooo]

1. ..

:toast:
:bounce:
:kick:
:applause:
:patriot:

[bluestateguy]

2. All the final political science models will be out in late August

They are usually presented at the APSA convention, which is covered by the national media.

[wvbygod]

3. No matter the outcome, some history will be made

From the fact that no Democrat has won without WV since Einstein was a bad student to all the
other outstanding stakes in the ground, there has never been a situation like we have now.

History has a date with itself and its dance card is full.

[tokenlib]

4. Yeah, and I remember after convention Dukakis was way ahead too....

This is going to be a wicked fight, we're going to need extra votes to counter the racist idiots, the GOP and their allies will be flinging the crap, ---no one better get complacent..

[nancyr]

5. I won't hold my breath just yet....

This is, after all, the same country that elected Bush to two terms.

[nuxvomica]

7. Lichtman's model predicted a Gore win in 2000; Bush in 2004

Remember that the model only predicts the popular vote and doesn't account for the Supreme Court stepping in. His model has so many "keys" against the Republicans this year that the election is likely to be a blowout.

[Colobo]

8. It will. Obama will win the popular vote something like 54% to 46%.

[dtotire]

9. True

American voters aren't noted for choosing highly intelligent candidates.

[tekisui]

11. He was not elected in 2000.

And, he was likely not elected in 2004.

He cheated and stole two elections.

[Colobo]

6. McCain won't win. He simply won't. The guy sucks so bad

that many Republicans will vote Democrat or stay home.

[nuxvomica]

12. I suspect that Bush is very happy McCain's such a bad candidate

Because when the Republicans lose badly, he thinks it will look like McCain was the reason instead of Bush's legacy. I think for Bush it's all about preserving his legacy now. That's all he has to hope for and since he's not much of a student of history he actually thinks history will be kind to him.

[WillyWonton]

10. I think Obama is a good candidate...

but what will help Obama the most is that McCain is just a horrible candidate. I really don't follow much of what the repugs are doing, but I was shocked that McCain was the best they could come up with. Obama should win by a landslide.

[Hieronymus]

13. The GOP is offering McCain up as a sacrificial lamb [mercy f**k] if you

will. They know that no Republican has a chance, and it's McCain's "turn".:eyes:

[saltpoint]

14. The Pukes have had 8 years and have negative outcomes to show for those

8 years, pretty much across the board.

The one true accomplishment has been the addition of the t-ball court on the White House lawn.

Everything else has been a disaster.

McCain's time has passed, and his presidential viability likely ended in the ahses of the 2000 South Carolina primary.

He's toast.