Rasmussen, 6/15: Obama 46%, McCain 39%

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 39%. When “leaners” are included, Obama holds a six-point advantage, 49% to 43%. This is the eighth straight day that Obama has enjoyed a lead of five-to-seven points (see recent daily results). Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-one percent (31%) are that certain to vote for McCain.

-snip-

Obama is now viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 43%. The numbers for McCain are 52% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Opinions are held more strongly about Obama--32% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while 27% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those numbers are 16% Very Favorable and 19% Very Unfavorable.

-snip-

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.

Rasmussen also found that the majority of voters believe it's impossible to run a presidential campaign without ties to lobbyists and special interests, and most voters expect both Obama and McCain to be influenced by them, but they "still consider both men at least as ethical as most politicians."

[Teaser]

1. McCain has foallen below 40%?

yowch.

[democrattotheend]

14. That has to be his lowest of the year.

And I like that 36% of voters are certain to vote for Obama. The question is whether he can get the other 15%.

[Crunchy Frog]

2. Remember all the hysterical posts you used to see on here

about how "Obama *can't* win!!!11!". I wonder what they have to say now. :shrug:

[Hope And Change]

5. Let-It-Sink.

:)

[highplainsdem]

7. I still expect it to be a close election. I still believe the GOP attack machine is holding back,

waiting till after the convention to go after Obama. But I'm glad to see that Obama's lead over McCain has widened, even though he didn't get the 10-15 point bounce some people were expecting after the primary race ended.

As Rasmussen pointed out, this election is going to be very partisan. Both candidates are viewed favorably by about 80% of voters in their own party, but so far McCain has a slight edge over Obama among independents.

I've pointed out elsewhere that Rasmussen's data on political self-identification and perception of the candidates

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/public_perceptions_of_obama_and_mccain_shifting_rapidly

also suggests this is likely to be a close election. It's good news that more people identify themselves as liberal than was the case four years ago, but with 3/4 of voters still identifying themselves as either moderate or conservative (pretty evenly divided between the two), this election is going to be about winning moderates.

I'd feel more comfortable with Obama's current lead if there wasn't such a large group of undecided voters.

[anonymous171]

9. I think it will be close too, especially after the GOP fear machine starts up.

But I still have hope.

[Colobo]

3. Take that, McShit! Gobama!

[Oleladylib]

4. How many months until November? Cockiness..loses...remember that.

[cali]

6. Care to explain what's cocky about the OP? It's simply a post

of the Rasmussen poll and commentary. Not ONE cocky word in, olelady. And please, I haven't forgotten YOUR many posts about how Obama can't possibly win.

[highplainsdem]

8. I'm not cocky at all, as I explained elsewhere here.

[Colobo]

10. I'm not cocky. I'm confident and ready to work hard to get Obama elected.

[Forkboy]

11. You'd know. You were convinced Hillary would beat Obama.

[chascarrillo]

12. Is that a threat?

[Occam Bandage]

13. "Hillary will win if she runs."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2862070#2862413

[FrenchieCat]

15. Are you just jealous that McCain is not doing as well right now?

If so, your slip is showing. Too bad that you must be our dark cloud....for whatever your reasons, bankrupt as they may be. Pity you that a majority's happiness is your dismay.

[Jazzgirl]

16. You always have some nasty dig about Obama.

Why do you bother to post at all? Why are you here?

[polichick]

17. Looks good, but we still have work to do when it comes to...

...differentiating the political habits of McLobbyist from those of Obama.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. sounds like we need to spend 80% of our time at colleges.