Mason Dixon: Nevada - McInsane (44) Obama (42)

[malik flavors]

NEW R-J NEVADA POLL: McCain 44%, Obama 42%

McCain, Obama split vote, with many still undecided

As the presidential candidates square off for the general election, Nevadans are closely divided between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, according to a statewide poll.

If the election were held today, 44 percent would vote for McCain, 42 percent for Obama, while 14 percent of likely voters remain undecided, according to the poll of 625 likely voters, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com.

The presidential contest is well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It confirms the conventional wisdom that Nevada is a swing state that might throw its electoral votes to either candidate in November.

"It's a statistical tie. It's a toss-up," said pollster Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon. "Nevada is a battleground. It's clearly a state both candidates, both campaigns, both parties are going to pay a lot of attention to.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/19954494.html

I was hoping to see Obama pulling ahead in Nevada, but I think he will in time. It's a dead heat right now. I'm really hoping he'll win Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.

[saltpoint]

1. I bet you're right on Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.

It's encouraging that the Nevada numbers are close this early and agree with your prediction that it may turn in Obama's favor later on.

[anonymous171]

2. I hope we can turn the west into a democratic stronghold like the south is for repugs.

[nsd]

3. We need the South too.

Especially Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. Remember that Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada have fewer electoral votes than Florida has by itself.

ETA: Oops. Actually I was wrong about Florida -- it has 27 compared to 29 for those four Western states. Still, I think the point stands that there are a lot of electoral votes in the South that we can't afford just to give up on.

[yardwork]

5. The South is not necessarily a Republican stronghold.

In fact, many southerners still consider themselves to be staunch Democrats, and many southern states have Democratic governors and Democratic-majority state legislatures. The problem in the south is that their social values are conservative. Democrats need to break through the Republican dirty tricks and media lies to show the wide gap between what Republicans "say" they'll do and what they actually do.

Most of the south voted for Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 and I believe that much of the south will support Obama in 2008.

[Thrill]

4. Another state where the turnout can flip it to the Dems. TURNOUT TURNOUT TUNROUT

[Carrieyazel]

6. The fact that Obama hasn't pulled ahead in Nevada by now is not encouraging.

He's had a big organization there since last summer, and still lost to Hillary in the popular vote in the caucuses there. McCain had little organization there until recently and still leads Obama in the polls after the primary bump. Not good news.

Colorado and New Mexico are much easier to turn blue.

[BluegrassDem]

8. Nevada is a big time Republican state...chill out

It'll come around by November. The GE campaign just started. Obama is right where he needs to be.

[Carlinni_22]

13. Nevada is not a "big time" republican state

Kerry lost there by just 3%. Gore lost by 4%. Clinton won there twice , in 96 and '92.

[MadBadger]

12. With all these recent tombstones, its nice there is still somebody to be concerned for us all.

[CanonRay]

7. Did that poll take into account Bob Barr running as a Libertarian?

A huge percentage of the Nevada Rethugs are Libertarian, as evidenced by the Ron Paul takeover of the State Rethug convention in April. In addition, I think the Independents will break for Obama around 60-40 or better.

[Carlinni_22]

14. Good question

Barr will upset McCain in many states, IMO.

[27inCali]

9. A good strong voter registration drive

around the Carson, Reno area as well as Vegas could probably swing that state.

gotta go in and get those first time voters registered and pumped up.

[nsd]

10. John Kerry lost Nevada by only about 3 points.

We should do better this year -- it'll be very close.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

11. Yeah I just looked it up, it was about a 20,000 vote difference.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NV/P/00/

I don't know how the polling was leading up to the election, but it looks like a good chance for a pickup.