Kerry
337 51.80 99.90
Bush
201 48.20 0.10
Undecided Voter Allocation %
BaseCase
Kerry
60% 67% 75% 80% 87%
Trial Wins
4901 4972 4995 4997 4999
Projected 2-party %
Kerry
51.02 51.38 51.80 52.07 52.43
Bush
48.98 48.62 48.20 47.93 47.57
Win Prob %
Kerry
98.02 99.44 99.90 99.94 99.98
Bush
1.98 0.56 0.10 0.06 0.02
Electoral Vote
Average
320 328 337 343 352
Median
322 329 338 345 353
Maximum
379 388 399 405 412
Minimum
211 237 223 243 254
95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
361 368 376 382 389
Lower Limit
278 288 298 305 315
National 18-Polls
Vote%
50.73 51.15 74.77 51.92 52.34
Prob%
97.55 99.90 100.00 100.00 100.00
States Won
24 25 26 26 27
2004 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS State Pre-Election polls, Projections, Exit polls and Recorded vote
Pre-Election Polls
(Pre Undecided Voter Alloc)
Recorded Vote( Official Vote Count )
SEP – Proj
SEP – Vote
Exit Poll
Projected
EV
SEP
EV
Proj – SEP
Proj – Vote
SEP – Vote
State
Wtd Avg
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Kerry
47.7 %
39
30
45
46
49
47
52
78
45
50
42
45
30
54
39
50
37
39
40
50
54
64
52
52
42
44
36
32
49
47
50
49
57
47
35
50
28
50
50
56
42
42
47
37
24
53
47
52
45
51
29
Bush
47.0 %
57
57
50
48
42
48
42
11
38
47
52
45
59
42
58
44
60
56
48
39
43
27
45
44
51
49
57
61
49
47
42
49
39
50
55
47
61
44
45
36
55
52
50
59
69
40
51
44
49
44
65
Kerry
51.0 %
41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0
50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5
45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5
53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5
55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5
48.5
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8
55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8
51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3
43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5
57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
Kerry
51.8 %
42.5
40.3
46.7
44.8
59.8
50.1
62.2
90.9
61.3
50.9
42.5
56.4
30.8
57.0
40.0
50.7
37.5
39.6
44.1
55.5
60.0
64.8
54.4
55.7
45.8
49.0
37.7
36.7
52.9
57.0
57.8
52.9
64.1
49.2
32.9
54.2
33.5
53.0
55.3
61.8
45.9
36.3
42.8
40.6
29.2
66.4
49.4
57.0
40.3
52.0
31.2
Kerry
48.3 %
36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3
47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1
41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3
49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6
55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
40.2
46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2
52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5
48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4
40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0
58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
Bush
50.7 %
62.5
61.1
54.9
54.3
44.4
51.7
43.9
9.3
45.8
52.1
58.0
45.3
68.4
44.5
59.9
49.9
62.0
59.6
56.7
44.6
42.9
36.8
47.8
47.6
59.0
53.3
59.1
65.9
50.5
48.9
46.2
49.8
40.1
56.0
62.9
50.8
65.6
47.2
48.4
38.7
58.0
59.9
56.8
61.1
71.5
38.8
53.7
45.6
56.1
49.3
68.9
Diff
0.8 %
1.2
1.3
(1.3)
(5.0)
4.8
0.1
6.4
5.4
4.3
(0.6)
(3.3)
4.6
(6.7)
0.8
(0.5)
(3.0)
(1.0)
(2.4)
(4.1)
(2.0)
4.5
(5.2)
0.9
1.5
(0.7)
0.5
(2.8)
0.2
3.2
6.3
2.5
3.2
4.8
0.7
(8.9)
2.7
(2.0)
(0.8)
2.3
0.5
2.4
(9.4)
(5.7)
1.4
0.7
8.9
1.7
2.8
(8.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
Diff
3.6 %
5.7
4.8
2.3
0.3
5.5
3.1
7.9
1.7
8.0
3.8
1.1
2.4
0.5
2.2
0.8
1.5
0.9
(0.0)
1.9
1.9
4.1
2.9
3.2
4.7
5.7
2.9
(0.9)
4.1
5.1
6.8
4.9
3.9
5.7
5.7
(2.6)
5.5
(1.0)
1.7
4.4
2.4
5.0
(2.1)
0.3
2.4
3.2
7.5
4.0
4.2
(2.9)
2.4
2.2
WPE 7.1 % 11.3
9.6
4.6
0.5
10.9
6.1
15.7
3.4
15.9
7.6
2.2
4.7
1.0
4.4
1.5
3.0
1.7
(0.1)3.8
3.8
8.1
5.8
6.3
9.3
11.3
5.8
(1.8)8.1
10.1
13.6
9.7
7.8
11.4
11.3
(5.2) 10.9
(1.9)1.8
8.8
4.7
10.0
(4.2)0.5
4.8
6.4
15.0
7.9
8.4
(5.8)4.7
4.3
Kerry
331
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
4
21
7
4
10
12
17
10
5
4
15
5
31
20
7
21
4
3
11
10
Kerry
325
55
9
7
3
3
27
4
21
7
4
10
12
17
10
5
4
15
5
31
20
7
21
4
3
11
10
< 2.5%
26
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
> 2.5%
26
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
> 2.5%
27
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes