Gallup, 6/15: Obama-McCain Race Reverts to Virtual Tie (15% undecided, highest of year)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107854/Gallup-Daily-ObamaMcCain-Race-Reverts-Virtual-Tie.aspx

Voters are closely divided between Barack Obama and John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted June 12-14, with 44% of national registered voters favoring Obama for president and 42% backing McCain.

Obama had led by as many as seven percentage points in the first few days following Hillary Clinton's departure from the race. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) Although the margin between Obama and McCain is now similar to what it was in the last few weeks of the Democratic primary race, the structure of the race looks slightly different than at any other time this year as a result of the relatively high percentage of voters -- 15% -- not favoring either major-party candidate. This includes 7% of voters who say they are undecided and 8% who say they will not vote for either candidate (including 1% who volunteer they will vote for another specific candidate).

As a result, the percentages of Americans now supporting Obama and McCain are near the lowest seen for either candidate since Gallup Poll Daily tracking on the Obama-McCain matchup started in early March, and well below the high of 48% achieved by each at them at various times.

I posted about Rasmussen yesterday -- and so did others here -- but I didn't notice anyone post yesterday's Gallup poll, and I like to follow both.

This is of particular interest to me because of suggestions I've seen that if Obama isn't leading McCain by a wide enough margin, it's more likely that he'll ask Hillary Clinton to be his running mate.

[FrenchieCat]

1. You've got a couple of months to go.....

But thank you for the poll.

I trust polls like I trust car salesmen and News reporters.

[Cali_Democrat]

2. Obama always polled poorly Friday-Sunday against Clinton

This trend appears to be continuing. For the life of me I can't understand why. Maybe Obama supporters like to have fun and go out on the weekends? :shrug:

[lurky]

8. Interesting...

Younger voters less likely to be around a phone on weekends? I know it's true for most young people I know.

[still_one]

3. If women really care about gender rights and the Supreme Court, Obama will win by a landslide /nt

[HowHasItComeToThis]

4. THE MEDIA ARE SETTING UP AN ELECTION THEFT

THEY CAN'T STAND DEMOCRACY. HURTS THEIR OBSCENE PROFITS.

[still_one]

5. It won't happen this time. Too many people are hurting, and the prospect of a third term bush

presidency through mccain is one that won't happen

For those that care about the Supreme Court, gender rights, civil rights, the environment, the Iraq War, the economy, jobs, healthcare, social security, mccain doesn't stand a chance

This election has never been clearer, and the stakes never higher

The republicans are going to be very unhappy

[Median Democrat]

6. It Will Change - But The Difficulty Is Television Networks

How do you combat Disney/ABC amd News Corp/Fox? These networks have a direct interest in controlling the make-up of the FCC, and they have a history of smearing the Democratics shortly before the election. In 2004, ABC ran "Stolen Honor" a smear of John Kerry. In 2006 before the elections, ABC ran "Path to 9/11," which was a smear of Bill Clinton. Already, Nightline has run a smear of Barack Obama called "10 Worst Vice-President Choices."

Just for comparison purposes, how much television coverage has there been of Clayton Williams who raised $300,000 for John McCain, and was about to host a fundraiser tommorrow. Clayton Williams, of course, is a former GOP candidate for governor of Texas who said that rape victims should just sit back and enjoy it, and who also bragged about frequenting prosititutes in Mexico as a kid. Yet, even though this story is available over the internet, nothing is being said on television on the major networks. Is McCain getting a free ride? I'd say yes.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Well the story on Clayton Williams broke on Friday, right?

That's the day Saint Russert died. I think apart from doing polite reporting on the Midwest Floods, not much has been said about anything else.

and now I hear that Saint Russert will be having two funerals.....so I guess that means no real reporting for another 2 or 3 days.

Till then, no scandals are allowed to break.

[Median Democrat]

26. Was it on the network news or just the internet?

nm

[anonymous171]

7. Picking Hillary would only hurt his numbers. Plus the drama would be too overwhelming.

[highplainsdem]

12. Last week's NBC/WSJ poll showed he'd do better with HRC on the ticket:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25096620/

[AmericanUnity]

9. BY MISSING CELL PHONE USERS THEY'RE WAY UNDERPOLLING OBAMA VOTERS

[musicblind]

13. I hope that you are right, but the article says

"Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only)."

I do not know how much adding Hillary to the ticket will help his numbers. Edwards polls the best out of all the choices right now. But I do not think that adding Hillary will lose him more votes than he will gain. By that, I mean, I don't think adding her will hurt him. Polls show show it helping him. Though Edwards is leading in those particular polls. Biden is also a good choice.

I don't particularly think the choice will be Richardson or Clark. If I had to take a stab in the dark at this point I'd say he'll probably pick Biden (though please don't hold me to that). Biden will probably make these numbers go up at least some in the short term if not perminently.

[AmericanUnity]

11. And with Democrats holding a double digint lead in party identity these polls mean little

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

14. I DO NOT believe these polls are that close, and NO TO HILLARY CLINTON!

I don't understand why people who support Clinton for VP fail to see how divisive she is. Why don't you realize that she is too polarizing and will galvanize the Republicans to come out and vote against that ticket. Can someone please explain to me why people keep pushing for Clinton as VP and do not understand how destructive that decision would be?

[ima_sinnic]

17. I think they are DLCers who know their ship has sunk

but are flailing nevertheless. That, and Operation KKKaos still making a desperate effort, along with Republicons who hope that Hillary on the ticket will bring out repuke voters in huge numbers to vote against her.

She has way too much baggage for VP, too divisive, and too "establishment." No more status-quo, same old, same old rule by Bush-Clinton dynasty.

[Beacool]

20. We keep pushing because we still think that she's the better candidate.

We are waiting to see how Obama deals with the VP spot. If he doesn't even offer it to her, then we have other options.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. If she's a better candidate then why did she allow some upstart to defeat her?

She is NOT a better candidate. End of story. She should be more concerned about her debt and less concerned about pushing herself onto Obama's ticket. He's doing just fine without her!

[Beacool]

25. She allowed it?

Please, let's not go over the selection process of the Democratic (in name only) primaries.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

27. Yes, *allowed* it!

She allowed herself to be outmanuevered after Super Tuesday by failing not to plan properly or have a strategy for competiting in caucus states.

She allowed herself to be mismanaged and misguided by her campaign advisors, namely Mark Penn.

She allowed herself to be outspent, when she had the advantage in the very beginning of the primary season.

Bottom line: she should have won this primary, hands down. As the "better candidate," she should have managed her finances better, since she had the advantage. She was the better debater and had a slightly thicker resume. She should have won outright. She *allowed* herself to lose to a lesser-known, less-experienced political neophyte.

[dsomuah]

15. Ramussen Poll taken same day seems to disagree

There's a Ramussen poll also taken 6/15 that shows Obama leading 49-43 . Also a Ramussen poll for the state of Michigan is showing that Obama is climbing there again. It's a statistical tie there now 45-43 for Obama, and the number of undecided voters is increasing. I figure that with Obama starting to creep into the lead in Colorado, and Missouri, McCain needs Florida, Ohio AND Michigan if he wants to win, so the news coming out of Michigan is good.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. I believe that O has more of a chance to win OH than Kerry did.

If Strickland can put his differences with Obama aside and help him win this thing, I think he'll have an even greater shot. I cannot understand why Ohioans, who have been most hurt by this economy, would support John McSame. It's baffling to me. Is their hatred for black men greater than their love of country? It makes me wonder why they continue to vote against their own interests. The "tax and spend liberal" thing is simply an excuse used to justify their vote against any Democrat. If Democrats hope to win anything this year, they need to address the issue of taxes and squash those false beliefs once and for all.

[Carrieyazel]

21. Even Strickland said that he would give Obama's chances a 5 out of 10 to win

in Ohio. He implied that Obama could definitely win the state, but it would be an uphill battle even with strong support from Dem leaders. Rural Ohio looks espeically tough for him. It looks like bigotry outweighs their economic needs.

[Doctor_J]

16. The media onslaught is working

Once again, Big Media is virtually a McSame campaign loop. It remains to be seen whether Obamania can overcome the fascist media.

[bluedawg12]

19. Obama +3.3 as average of all polls.

Why not track RCP? 06/02 - 06/15 shows +3.3 lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[seasat]

23. It's a registered voter poll while Ras is a likely voter poll.

Rasmussen also polls leaners and Obama is pretty steady in the likely votes with leaners. While Gallup apparently does not include leaners. So Obama is holding pretty steady with those most likely to vote.

The Gallup poll had shown some pretty good leads for Obama and has some interesting data in his poll. There are 15% undecided between http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002216444_bush23.html">McCain and Obama. It means that the group with the biggest Get Out The Vote effort can pull in some of those undecided. Obama would definitely win under those cases. The bad news is that the neither/others seems to have risen along with the truly undecided. It appears that some of Obama's decline among registered voters is from 2% in the neither and 3% in the undecided. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002216444_bush23.html">McCain is keeping the same low numbers.

IMHO, we need to promote http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002216444_bush23.html">McCain's negatives. He needs a higher score among the very unfavorable opinion group. We're part way there since http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002216444_bush23.html">McCain has already lost his maverick status among the electorate. Now if we can just convince the media of that too.

[Nye Bevan]

24. Polls mean nothing at this early stage

In June 1988 Dukakis had a 15% lead over Bush:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE4DF1F3DF934A25755C0A96E948260

Obama will win in a landslide.