The Daily Widget – Monday, June 16 – Obama 316-222

[phrigndumass]

Obama has moved up another four electoral votes since Friday. He now stands at 316 electoral votes to McCain's 222.

FiveThirtyEight.com (Poblano) made two major changes to their methodology over the weekend, and then two adjustments to the changes this morning. After doing so, their electoral vote projection comes more in line with my own projection and that of Electoral-Vote.com. They made good decisions on this, and I'm happy they made these changes. They now show Obama's electoral vote projection slightly above 300. (Notice the difference on the first tracking chart below.)

Our big spike on Friday with our swing states on Intrade has held steadfast over the weekend (check out my new 3-D chart below!) and has only slightly fallen from Friday. The twelve states we've designated as swing states to watch on Intrade are trading as a group about 22 points above the majority of 600.00. Missouri has moved further into "the zone" (between 40 and 60) and is now trading at 45.00. Ohio has stepped back from the zone with a reinvigorating jump to 62.00.

Several new polls were released over the weekend, but nothing changed sides. The most revealing poll released was for Arkansas, where Obama is now within single digits of McCain. McCain was leading by 24 points a month ago, but now his lead has diminished to 9 points.








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH


* * * * * * *


TRACKING



^ All indices are over 300 for Obama for the first time!



^ Real Clear Politics' national poll average for Obama is decreasing, but so is McCain's national poll average. The number of undecideds in the national polls has leaped almost to 12% nationwide.



^ Hope you have a pair of 3-D glasses! Our WEA Total stays well above the majority line of 600.00, after the huge jump it took on Friday.



^ Intrade's price has moved up 1.5 points for Obama since yesterday. Rasmussen Markets' price stays put.


* * * * * * *






^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction.
It is a map of the states which are currently
either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

.
(edit: title change)

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good morning, phrigndumass!

I like the new chart :)

k&r

[phrigndumass]

2. I'm learning all about the three-dimensional charts, lol

The 3-D pie charts especially are looking uber chic.

:donut: Good morning, fight4my3sons! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. my little boy thought the 3-D pie chart

was really cool last week :D I have to get him on the bus.

Have a good day at work!

[tekisui]

4. The Electoral College Map looks great.

It is an Obama win, to use as a base. NC and GA could swing. As could AK and FL.

[phrigndumass]

5. Wouldn't winning Alaska be funny as hell? lol ...

What with ANWR and how it might affect Alaskans' state rebate checks. But they are seeing more of the damages from global warming than we are down here in the lower 48.

I agree also with NC, GA and FL.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day :D

[grantcart]

7. Excellent news

Very interesting about Arkansas and also Ohio


The more the state polls come in the more that it appears that the national polls are off.


Two polls in NY show Obama up by 18% (and one of them shows declining support in NY for Clinton on the ticket)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/06/16/nyt_poll_obama_holds_big_lead_in_new_york.html

[phrigndumass]

8. I really see the national polls as good only for the popular vote total

Obama is leading by 4.4 million projected votes right now, or 3% of the total projected popular vote. That 3% is more in line with the RCP Average, Gallup national poll, and Rasmussen national poll. (As well as our own WEA Index)

It's how and where he's leading that has his electoral votes skyrocketing. His campaign is playing the electoral game in the same manner they strategized the primaries :D

[grantcart]

16. It doesn't add up though

if you were to take all of the aggregate totals of the various states and formulate it to a national average it would be a much larger lead than what the Gallup poll shows. NY/CA/IL/MA are all showing 20 point leads and if you go to McCain's states like Arizona he has a 11 point lead. It doesn't correlate.

[phrigndumass]

17. One would think so, and it would be logical to think that, but ...

The aggregate totals of polls from the various states come to a 2-3% difference when averaged. My aggregate popular vote projections so far this year have shown a 2-4% difference. It's quite similar. Obama's popular vote is staying about one percentage point ahead of his poll average, while McCain's popular vote is staying about one percentage point behind his poll average. Notice the flatlines for the past presidential candidates, and how their lines are near where their lines are on the other chart. Weird, huh?

[grantcart]

18. Interesting of course the big difference between Obama/McCain numbers

and those of past elections are that in the past elections there are no 'undecideds' as everyone votes for somebody - although '92 and '96 had Perot.

[mod mom]

9. k & r

[phrigndumass]

10. Tks mod mom

:hi:

[mod mom]

11. my pleasure.

If I miss some rec's for you it's because I'm busy working to register voters for Obama fulfilling the Poblano Model pathway to a win in November.

Organized a Juneteenth Festival Voter Reg this weekend and although we competed for registrations with other groups, we add 87 new voters in Cols. and signed up many new volunteers. Wonder how McCain is doing. ;)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

12. I hear McCain is bringing back people from the dead to vote

It's their only chance, lol

Gotta get new voters, and I'm thankful to hear you're doing tons of work for Obama! I'll be helping a few weekends over the summer in St. Louis. Pride Weekend is coming up there, and it's a good time to register voters.

:yourock:

[mod mom]

13. We have a pride event coming up in our neck of the woods, although

I will not be working as my brother coming to town for a visit-thanks to Tom Waits appearing in concert.

[Ysabel]

14. thanks k and r...

:)

[phrigndumass]

15. yw Ysabel

thanks back atcha! :hi: