Gallup, 6/16: Americans Predict Obama Will Be Next U.S. President (52% to 41%)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107995/Americans-Predict-Obama-Will-Next-US-President.aspx

Barack Obama and John McCain are now about tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, nevertheless, in a June 9-12 Gallup Poll, Obama leads McCain 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in November.

Democrats are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee will prevail in November -- 76% say Obama will win -- than Republicans are about McCain's chances (67%). What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Obama is that, by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Democrats in believing Obama is likely to win.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the presidential election over the same period as the June 9-12 Gallup Poll shows Obama beating McCain among registered voters in the East and West, while he roughly ties McCain in the Midwest and trails McCain by a substantial margin in the South. Nevertheless, roughly half of voters in all four regions believe Obama is the more likely of the two to win.

-snip-

While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing Obama and McCain as the likely winner: 48% predict an Obama win vs. 45% for McCain. By contrast, the majority of Americans 55 and older say Obama will win.

[NoodleBoy]

1. this perception actually means alot, because big-dollar R donors pay out for who they think can win

The more this perception persists, the less money they'll get.