Replacing McCain speculation growing - Huffington Post "When McCain Drops Out"

[grantcart]

From Steve Rosenbaum at the Huffington Post

When McCain Drops Out

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rosenbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.html

I think there is every reason to believe John McCain won't be the nominee. Ok, let me say that again. McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.


Here's how it could happen:

At some point in mid August, John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept his party's nomination for president. The reason will be health-related, and that may turn out to be the truth. Anyone who's seen him on stage these days knows he looks like he's about to keel over. And anyone who's been on a presidential campaign knows the physical demands are grueling and can be a challenge for a young man.

But excuses or facts hardly matters. He won't be accepting his party's nomination.

The reasons are simple. He can't win. Now that Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee -- the polls all show that McCain's pro-war stance and Bush endorsement make him a lost cause in November. That combined with soft stand on litmus test conservative issues make him an unpopular candidate among the base. I know some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out' so that they can hang the democrats with a bad economy and a war that is a morass. But that just isn't how they play. They play to win every hand -- think about 2000 with a popular Democratic president and good economy and a solid VP running for president. Why did they put up Bush? And why did they fight so hard? Because, you don't ever throw a game. And they're not going to throw this one.

clip

Here's a list of names. Some you know, some you don't. But each of them knows their name is in play. Among them --

Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powell (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Governor)
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Governor)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)
MIchael Bloomberg (NYC Mayor)

Is this supposition? Sure, but one grounded with enough history and observation to take it beyond conjecture and into the realm of the possible.

So -- before the Democrats go and game out how to beat McCain, it may be worth thinking about what happens when he says he won't accept the nomination. For the Republicans, a wide open convention would be both good theater and good politics.

The main problem with this scenario is convincing McCain of anything as he doesn't really listen to people.

However the fact that traditional Republican fund raisers are staying away from McCain may be a sign that they are trying to pressure him out.

[loveable liberal]

1. Not going to happen. Exposes reichwing as weak.

It is,but they dont want it exposed.

[grantcart]

6. I agree except if McCain cannot raise funds then it is an even greater exposure for them

You may have seen that only 8% of Bush contributors have given money to McCain. Also in March and April the Dems outraised McCain in Arizona.

The only way that this scenario works, INMHO, is that they money people boycott McCain and he is convinced that it is going to be a disaster. On the other hand he is contrarian enough to simply relish paying the Republican Party back.

In either or any case increased speculation about McCain leaving the ticket is positive, and hurts his fund raising.

[MNDemNY]

2. You forgot one....Jebby!

[Myrina]

7. What a Coinkydink!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3354805


:tinfoilhat: hmmmm ....

[HowHasItComeToThis]

30. JEB IS PNAC FOUNDER

[FatDave]

39. What, for the people who think McCain is too much like Bush?

:rofl:

[MissWaverly]

40. my thoughts exactly /Junior saying don't count Bush out of 08

he just said that in England

[calimary]

3. Most intriguing!

Who knows? I do love the speculation, though, I must admit.

:D

[grantcart]

14. The more speculation the better - just hoping the MSM eventually starts asking

[calimary]

24. Yes. Destabilize the enemy.

In any and all ways. All methods. All tactics. Large and small. Overt and covert.

WHATEVER IT TAKES.

[napi21]

4. Sooo, it's a good thing is the Pubs wasted MONTHS of crucial time

running a campaign for the wrong candidate and it goes to the convention, but it would have been DISASTER if the Dems had not decided before THEIR Convention? What the hell am I missing here?

Sorry Stevem but if the Pubs wait until SEPTEMBER to make a decision on their candidate, THEY'RE GOING TO LOSE THEN TOO! Wasting SIX MONTHS ofcritical campaign time only to change their mind in September...about ONE month before the GE sure is no winning strategy!!!!!!

[Fire_brand]

5. This is dumb, Bloomberg isn't even a republican anymore

[grantcart]

8. He never was - he only took the Republican ticket to run for mayor in NY

the list really isn't the main point of the article or the post.

[smoogatz]

9. No way in hell McCain will drop out.

There's no way the Republicans can re-boot the presidential campaign with a new candidate at this point: they're stuck with McCain, like it or not. Of the above list, only Colin Powell would make the race interesting, but then who would the racist "southern strategy" base vote for? The rest have either zero national name recognition or are universally disliked (Romney), perceived as fundie whackos (Huckabee), or "married" to the despised Bush administration (Rice). Nope, the great white Republican hope this time around was supposed to be Giuliani (failing George Allen); when that didn't work out, McCain was the best of the rest. I actually have every reason to think he'll do what can be done to revive his candidacy in fairly short order. Right now they're hunting for a general election identity that will work for them, and what they've come up with is kind of a cross between the Grinch and Grandpa Simpson. I'm guessing that within the next few weeks they'll settle on Distinguished Elder Statesman and, by administering a series of painful electric shocks, will teach McCain to stick to the talking points and stop telling the truth about his agenda.

[grantcart]

11. If his fund raising collapses (see reply 6 above) then it might motivate him

The point of the OP was actually two fold though - not only does the scenario appear to be within the realm of possibility, speculation about his leaving the ticket is gaining.

[flpoljunkie]

15. McCain did not drop out when his fundraisers abandoned him in the primary. I cannot see his doing

so now.

[grantcart]

21. I agree - he is contrarian enough to simply take the party with him

[smoogatz]

16. Well, I'm happy to fuel the speculation, though I doubt that some post on Huffpo

will make much of a difference for the Republican donor base. I think at this point they're either delusionally convinced that Obama can't possibly win (he's black!1!!) or they're resigned to tossing McCain to the wolves and gearing up early for 2012.

[grantcart]

20. no its kind of a pyramid effort - hopefully at some point somebody in the MSM

starts to ask the question.

[jazzjunkysue]

45. Since when does the Gop lack for funding?

Anyone ever heard of the K Street Project?

[BrklynLib at work]

10. I believe they are capable of doing ANYTHING to hold onto power.

[windbreeze]

34. I agree with you 100%

the only reason I can see that they'd even consider throwing this election would be so that in 2012 they could come back and say, look what the Dems did to you in the last 4 years, (because we all know it's going to be rough trying to straighten out the mess we are currently in, and some are not going to like it)...These guys did NOT get all their ducks in a row...make all the signing statements, exe orders, and laws on the books for NO reason...I don't trust them any further than I can throw them, and that ain't very damned far...and I do believe that Jeb DOES figure into whatever plans they are making...either for now or a little later...wb

[1Hippiechick]

47. Ditto.

www.blackboxvoting.org

[nsd]

12. HuffPo's list of replacements is odd.

Bloomberg's not a Republican anymore, and Hagel is only dubiously one. Lugar is 76 years old. Jindal became LA Governor only five months ago. Crist has been the target of a "whispering" campaign that would likely inflame the GOP bigots. Who the heck is Marilyn Musgrave? Powell is almost as old as McCain and is hardly a committed Republican; of late, he's been given to praising Obama. Condoleezza Rice is just a reminder of Bush -- anything associated with the present regime is tainted.

[Shakespeare]

13. A lot of the same speculation was made about Dole, but he stayed in.

I'll be very surprised if McCain drops out.

[bullimiami]

17. i think they are more likely to cancel the election and keep the power themselves.

[Shakespeare]

19. Nah, I don't think that'll happen. n/t

[Rosemary2205]

18. Snort - this Huff post assumes the Pukes want to win. LOL

Grandpa is a rube. The pukes have screwn the whole dang world so bad they need a Dem to blame it all on come 2012.

[tulsakatz]

22. even if they do replace him.........

....at that late date though, how can effective they be? I mean, McCain and the others have been campaigning for well over a year now.....

[SuperTrouper]

23. Do not forget Newt Gingrich

because the Grinch will mobilize the Conservatives and the Christian Right and at least they'll reason that they could minimize their losses in the House and the Senate compared to the rout they will suffer with McClone at the top of the ticket.

[Imagevision]

25. Oh I hope McCain doesn't drop out, it would be too easy for Obama...

[PoliticalAmazon]

26. It will remain only speculation. Replacing McCain now would be...

political suicide for the GOP.

The only one who might pull it off would be Powell, but he has indicated that he "may" be voting for Obama. IMO, that means he WILL be voting for Obama, but doesn't want to piss off the GOP. That he even raised the idea that he would vote for Obama is a strong indication he is voting for Obama.

But Powell sold his legacy before to the GOP when he lied to the U.N. before the lead-up to the Iraq invasion and occupation, and he may well do it again.

Still, an African-American GOP candidate does not seem a good fit for the xenophobic GOP.

Of course, Powell is a God-Damned War Hero, and that means (for many people) he walks on water.

[phrigndumass]

27. If they had any balls, they'd run Cheney/Bush

Dick Cheney for President, Dubya (or Jeb) for VP. They'd still lose, but they'd go down swinging.

[grantcart]

28. lol

[uponit7771]

29. Something the article didn't mention: NRCC fundraising = 6 million, DNCC = 45.7 million. McSame...

...hurts down ticket and evangelicals are finally going to get smart and not let them us abortion this year.

Possibility is there especially if McSame can't pull in the money.

[Disturbed]

31. Here is the ticket: Mitt/Jebb

This is what the Bush Crime Family wants. They usually get what they want.

[CK_John]

32. I think it will be Jindal/S Palin. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

33. It ain't going to happen and people should stop floating this idea around.

If McCain drops out, it'll be at the convention, which would throw the GOP into total chaos. They stand a better chance of winning the election with McCain than if he were to drop out and someone else step in. It would be a total mess and Obama would walk to victory. The Republicans understand this and even if McCain's chances are small, they're still better than a nominee picked -- not by the will of the people -- but by the party after McCain flops.

It'd be much like when McGovern dropped Eagleton for Sargent Shriver.

[grantcart]

36. I think we should take careful note of this speculation

even if it doesn't turn out to be true it is helpful.

Many Republicans I talk to wish it were true.

[needledriver]

35. He's a sacrifice.

I'll say it again:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3414527&mesg_id=3414527

[karynnj]

37. This won't happen unless he is deathly ill and it is his choice

No one works as hard as needed to get the nomination and then walk away from it. The egos involved never let you see that you - especially when you won - are not the best. This is the same reason that even if every power broker in teh Democratic party felt Clinton more likely to win - once Obama had significantly more delegates it would heva been election suicide to take it from him.

[grantcart]

38. the difference is that Obama had his own fund raising poweress

More and more information is coming out that traditional Republican contributors are not taking their wallets out.

Only 8% of the Bush's contributors have made a contribution to McCain

Obama is outraising McCain in Arizona.

of course he will be resistant to it but there is increasing speculation because of the problems people see with the campaign.

[Fleshdancer]

41. I don't believe it, but I LOVE that people are talking about it

I'll support any endeavor that reminds republicans how crappy their nominee is. :D

[European Socialist]

42. I always find this sort of talk strange.

Remember when Al Gore was going to jump in at the end? What kind of candidate is going to quit after all that hard work? Health reasons are the only way this would happen.

[grantcart]

43. and yet these observations just won't go away no matter how much we ignore them

they just keep coming back. It would make me think twice if I was a Republican contributor.

[Bullet1987]

44. I wish that would happen...it would almost gurantee a Dem win

I don't see it happening at all though.

[jazzjunkysue]

46. When you can rig the election, you don't give a damn who's on the ticket.

If the last 8 years don't prove that, nothing will.

[1Hippiechick]

48. Ditto. www.blackboxvoting.org

www.blackboxvoting.org

[Willo]

49. That is interesting and would explain the GOP website

I'm sure they have been considering it among other things.

McCain is the biggest problem his campaign has. You can watch a number of videos of McCain fumbling the ball and never see a repeat performance. KO said it best when he said McCain's great challenges are McCain vs. McCain, McCain vs. videotape and McCain vs. the truth.

He can't get away from "McSame" and "McBush"

Who do you put up as VP that can make the difference? Who would want it?

You also need a turnout to rig votes and machines.

Going back to the drawing board doesn't seem so farfetched. I say Romney/Huckabee.

Either way, I think this is a wonderful topic for people to discuss :evilgrin: