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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jun-16-08 05:52 PM Original message |
6/16 Election Model: Obama 52.2%; 324 EV; 99.7% Prob |
2008 ELECTION MODEL Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation TruthIsAll Updated: June 16 http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm If the election were held today, Obama would win the electoral vote by 324 – 214. The State model projects that he would win 52.2% of the 2-party vote. The National model projects indicates that he would win 53.2%. Obama leads the latest state poll aggregate average by 45.3 – 43.2%. He also leads the latest national poll aggregate by 45.6 – 41.8%. The electoral vote is the average of a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation. Obama won 99.7% of the trials; that’s the probability he would win. The model executes five scenarios of undecided voter allocation. In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama. In the worst case, 50% were allocated: Obama had 50.9%, 295 EV and a 90% probability. The latest polls indicate that these states will flip to Obama: CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC, NV (new) But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud. The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
Obama will probably need at least 54% of the True Vote (2-party) to win. Now for the good news: Obama should get the 54% — at a minimum.
These graphs display the latest polls and projection trends:
Polling Data Sources State Poll data: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ National Poll data: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jun-17-08 08:51 AM Response to Original message |
1. typo correction: |
Edited on Tue Jun-17-08 08:54 AM by tiptoe
Under 2004 Election Model - Top Summary
National 18-Polls Vote% typo 50.73 51.15 74.77 51.92 52.34 correction 50.73 51.15 51.63 51.92 52.34 |
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