Close Race: McCain Stays in Range Amid Challenges for Obama

[Beacool]

Bush Disapproval at New High, Record Number Say Country is on 'Wrong Track'

ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER
June 17, 2008

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll underscores the conundrum of the 2008 presidential election: If everything is so good for Barack Obama, why isn't everything so good for Barack Obama?

Disapproval of George W. Bush has reached a record high for any president in modern polls, a record number of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, Democrats hold a significant advantage in partisan affiliation and Obama leads John McCain on a range of issues and personal attributes, as well as in sheer enthusiasm.

Yet Obama has less of a head-to-head advantage against McCain than these views would imply.

Among all Americans, Obama leads by a fairly narrow 6 points; among those most likely to vote -- an estimate that it's admittedly early to make -- the two are locked in a dead heat.

In generic preference in local congressional elections, by contrast, the Democrats lead the Republicans by 15 points, a wide 52-37 percent, among all adults.

Obama's advantage vs. McCain is about the same as in an ABC/Post poll last month -- no bounce from Obama's victory in the long-fought Democratic nomination campaign.


http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=5177916&page=1

[MrsT]

1. MSM wants to make this look closer that it really is

I recommend electoral-vote.com

[WeDidIt]

3. Yep, they're addicted to tehr atings the Dem Primary generated

and are sickened about things dropping off now that it's been decided and we have an exciting Dem Candidate (whoidh would have been the case either way the Dem primary went) and a ho-hum boring assed Republican.

It'll be a lopsided race and teh M$M knows it, so they prop up McCain as much as possible to try and tighten things up so they can generate some ratings and thus revenue.

[JeanGrey]

5. Do NOT be fooled. It is closer than you think. This country

is still radically divided; to believe otherwise would be folly. That is why we cannot give up and we have to have a VP that everyone likes (and the initials aren't HC).

[babylonsister]

2. Yawn. If they can't fabricate a horse race, they'd have nothing to talk

about. And that war and the economy? Pshaw!

[Bleacher Creature]

14. Frank Rich's column on Sunday hit this one out of the park

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/15/opinion/15rich.html?em&ex=1213848000&en=c26c762949842d64&ei=5087

Here's a sample:

"There are many ways that Mr. Obama can lose this election. But his 6-percentage-point lead in the Journal-NBC poll is higher than Mr. Bush’s biggest lead (4 points) over Mr. Kerry at any point in that same poll in 2004. So far, despite all the chatter to the contrary, Mr. Obama is not only holding on to Mrs. Clinton’s Democratic constituencies but expanding others (like African-Americans). The same cannot be said of Mr. McCain and the G.O.P. base.

That story is minimized or ignored in part because an unshakable McCain fan club lingers in some press quarters and in part because it’s an embarrassing refutation of the Democrats-in-meltdown narrative that so many have invested in. Understating the splintering of the Republican base also keeps hope alive for a tight race. As the Clinton-Obama marathon proved conclusively, a photo finish is essential to the dramatic and Nielsen imperatives of 24/7 television coverage."

[babylonsister]

28. Thanks for that; yes, he speaks the truth! nt

[NatBurner]

4. *panics*

[Beacool]

6. I think that at this point the race is very tight.

I mentioned before that I had expected Obama to get a bigger bump when Hillary dropped out than the 6 - 7 points he got, but people jumped down my throat.

I don't think it's mostly due to racism either. To dismiss it as such is simplistic.

[GarbagemanLB]

7. If only Hillary had won, she'd be way ahead by now!

:eyes:

[Beacool]

8. This thread is not about Hillary.

Play nice........

[uponit7771]

11. You're the one who mentioned your expectations, why.... for rhetorical sake?

[Arugula Latte]

12. Oh, nooooo, of course it's not.

Lil' ol' you would neeeever do something like that ...

[dionysus]

15. how stupid do you think we all are? you aren't fooling anybody with this shit.

:eyes:

[uponit7771]

9. Obama is winning in battle ground states like Penn and Ohio and even has MOE even in VA. Don't know

...what your point is about your expectations. I haven't seen any evidence it would be different with Hillary

[Thrill]

10. If McCain was ahead. They would be saying he is running away with it. This is so typical

[LowerManhattanite]

13. LOL! K&R so all may see the passive/aggressive sniping. n/t

[zulchzulu]

16. It's best to think that Obama is behind by 10 points at this time

Overconfidence can kill a candidacy. Let's act like we're behind and obviously want to get back in the lead.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. 200 people at McCain events clearly equals 20,000.

It's undebatable.

[DevonRex]

18. Why the uptick in all the "concern" posts and divisive posts lately? nt

[Sinistrous]

21. It couldn't possibly be pushing the envelope on the post-primary GD-P rules,

could it?

[DevonRex]

23. Oh no. They wouldn't do that, would they? :) nt

[SurfingAtWork]

19. Thanks for your concern. IBTL

[Barack_America]

20. Hey look! Y'all know how to coordinate!

Good for you!

:eyes:

[gkhouston]

22. Coordinating isn't that hard. Bullshit goes with everything. n/t

[blondeatlast]

24. Oh, no! nt

[VolcanoJen]

25. When he's six points behind, then you can get nervous.

This is good news to anybody but our Awesome Liberal Media, BeaCool.

And if Obama can win Ohio (new PPP data has him leading McCain by eleven points!), that's it. Game, set, match. Do the electoral math.

[rasputin1952]

26. This is going to be a slaughter...McCain has had a free ride,

for all of his gaffes, misstatements and buffoonery, the first "debate" will turn the nation against him; if there is a second, he's done. It will become apparent that he has nothing except drive the nation deeper into debt, keep the war going of for ever and sit idly by as the Robber Barons take hold of the reigns of the economy....teh only HOPE he has, is Hoping to get elected.

And BTW...the GOP is going down with him, both Houses will turn with numbers that will make the GOP heads spin. It will take a generation of more to recover, and even then, they will make minor gains.

Here in Nebraska, D registrations are up some 150%, almost all of them young and eager to get the GOP out of power. There is a surge of voters that despise what bush has done to this nation.

[City Lights]

27. He's ahead by six, but abc says Obama is the one who faces challenges.

:eyes:

[Zynx]

29. More astonishing is how McCain is doing so badly with a united Republican Party.

He has run out of places to get votes. He is polling at about 85-90% of Republicans and still can't make headway. Once our party fully unites Obama will have a ten point lead.