I can't get excited when I see Obama ahead of McCain in the polls right now...

[Blue_Roses]

it's just too early and so much can happen. If there's one thing 2004 has taught me, it's to not get all tingly when the polls show Obama leading by wide margins. They fluctuate and while I am optimistic I still try to keep it real.

The poll that really matters is the one on election day. When that one sets Obama over the top, then I can let out a big sigh and breathe.

[rox63]

1. I agree - National polls this early are meaningless

It's a long time until November in political terms. Practically an eternity. Anything can happen. That's why I consider every state a battleground state.

[Blue_Roses]

2. I think we get into serious trouble when we start dancing around

polls that show him leading. It makes us over-confident which causes mistakes.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

3. National polls are meaningless, period. It's the Electoral College that counts. nt

[Zynx]

13. There's a pretty strict correlation between national vote and electoral college.

[napi21]

4. Yea I know. I feel the same way about the talking heads all saying Barack

will never get Killary supporters, and now they're saying the Indipendants are split 50/50, or older white men will never vote for him, or older women won't vote for him because they're upset they'll never see a woman prez. It's all BS to fill those 24/7 cable hours!

[Blue_Roses]

6. and they go on and on and on about it...

they try to say the same thing in 49 different ways:eyes: It's depressing and frustrating. I've stopped watching as much since the primaries ended

[unpossibles]

5. I agree, but his leads are HUGE compared to the Bush/Kerry race

Kerry lead in many polls, but not my this margin. Then again, polls are not an exact science, especially in light of Operation (I hate Democracy) Chaos and the like.

[Blue_Roses]

8. true...he sure did

[Carrieyazel]

18. His national lead is not huge. It's about 4 points. Slightly higher than Kerry

at this point four years ago.

[democrattotheend]

7. Some political strategists I know think he needs to be up 10 points to have a prayer

One person I know said wherever Obama is polling, we have to knock five points off. Sad but probably true.

[RichardRay]

9. I'd love to hear the rationale for that suggestion.

Are they saying knock five points off the Obama campaign's polling numbers? Or five points off anybody's (Gallup's, SUSA, Rasmussen, etc.)? Do they suggest that the polls are getting skewed results, aor are they saying that the actual outcome will be five points below what's forecast now? If the former, what are their methodological issues? If the latter, why do they believe that?

It just seems a bit arbitrary as a blanket statement, not that I believe June polls are conclusive for a November election, but I'd be curious to know why your political strategist friends say those things.

[democrattotheend]

12. Do I need to spell this out for you?

I was trying to avoid being too blunt. They are worried about a Bradley/Wilder effect.

[RichardRay]

21. Yes, I guess you do.

You made a very short statement that folks you know who are political strategists said take five points off some sort of polls in some sort of situation. I asked for clarification. Bradley/Wilder may or may not have been in effect in New Hampshire, there are folks who say one way and some the other.

[democrattotheend]

22. Sorry, did not mean to come off wrong

I was just trying to avoid being too blunt for fear of appearing like a "concern troll".

[RichardRay]

24. No problem...

Bradley/Wilder will get a really thorough test this cycle. Somebody should be able to get a dissertation out of the data that's going to be available by next spring.

[Carrieyazel]

19. I talked to someone who once worked for Mason-Dixon polling

and he estimated that the "Bradley/Wilder Effect" today could be 2-4 percentage points in a poll. Much better than in years past of course. We've come a long way. But its still there.

If Obama is only up 4 that could mean he's only up 1 or 2, or that its exactly tied.

[dsomuah]

10. Polls tell us what work needs to be done.

That's what national polls are good for at this point.

If the 2006 election had taken place in June instead of in November, the republicans would have held the house About 243-192 and held the senate 52-48 . Republicans will tell you that they only lost in 2006 because of the Iraq war, but it was a lot of the work we did in 2006 working on the seats we needed to win that gave us those election. It was things like Claire McCaskill reminding voters about Jim Talent's record of voting with Bush all the time. It was dems running ads in Ohio reminding voters about republican corruption. It was reminding voters in Rhode Island that a vote for Lincoln Chafee was a vote for a republican majority.

Those things need to be done in this election. Polls are showing that while Obama is doing better in Michigan it's still a weak state for him. We have to remind voters there what they are getting if they vote for McCain. We have to conduct voter registration excercises in the DC suburbs, and in North Carolina, we have a good chance of turning those states blue now, McCain's lead there is barely outside of the polling margin of error.

We have to remind voters in Cincinatti how Blackwell screwed them over in 2004. We can build a lead in Ohio.

The polls don't tell us how the election will turn out. They tell us what we have to do. If you live in one of these states and you haven't signed up as a volunteer, you should go and do it now.

[Blue_Roses]

15. yes, I agree

it does show us what we need to work on, but not everyone looks at it like that. I live in Texas and I am signed up to work, did during the primary and caucus, and know what we need to do here.:D

[peace13]

11. As long as we are all working as hard as we can to get Obama elected...

there need be no sighing. Be sure and work to make this happen. Peace, Kim

[jzodda]

14. Its WAY WAY WAY too early

I really only pay attention to the polls after both conventions are finished and the country as a whole starts to pay attention. Very few people outside of the political junkies are paying attention right now.

Also there is always the chance for the dreaded October surprise...

[Blue_Roses]

16. and I'm sure there will be something.

Obama's campaign seems to be one step ahead in this, so here's to hoping:toast:

[Carrieyazel]

17. He's not up by all that much. Four point average in national polls.

In this climate, he should be up by 14, not 4. With the MSM bias, and the other side starting to attack voraciously, it only gets tougher from here.

[PlanetBev]

20. You can't tell anything right now

Hard to believe that right about now, twenty years ago, Dukakis was ahead of Bush the Elder by 17 points.

We all know how that turned out...

[applegrove]

23. We have to fight every single day for our candidate. We have a long way to go.