Popular vote blowouts are rare.

[Drunken Irishman]

A lot of people keep bringing up the fact Obama is only up by 5-7 points as evidence his campaign is struggling. However, it's pretty rare to have a blowout in the popular vote. It just does not happen very often and in fact, we only tend to look at an election landslide based on the electoral college.

In 2004, Bush won the popular vote by a little less than three percentage points and 35 electoral votes. Pretty close.

In 2000, Gore won the popular vote by less than 1% and lost the electoral college by a mere 5 electoral votes.

In 1996, the incumbent Clinton won the popular vote by 8% and the electoral college by 220 electoral votes. I do not believe an 8% popular vote win is a blowout, however, Clinton slaughtered Dole in the electoral college.

In 1992, Clinton won the popular vote over Bush by only 6%, yet won the electoral college by 202 electoral votes.

In 1988, Bush won the popular vote over Dukakis by only 8%, yet won the electoral college by 315 electoral votes. Not a landslide in the popular vote, yet it was in the electoral college.

1984 is the exception, as Reagan killed Mondale both in the popular vote and the electoral college, winning by 18%.

In 1980, Reagan won the popular vote by only 9%, yet bested Carter in the electoral college by 440 electoral votes.

In 1976, Carter won the popular vote by only 2% and the electoral college by 57 votes over Ford.

1972, like 1984, was a landslide in both the popular vote and electoral college.

In 1968, Nixon won the popular vote by less than 1% (or around 500,000 votes), yet won the electoral college by a wide margin of 110 electoral votes over Hubert Humphrey and 255 votes over 3rd Party candidate George Wallace.

My point? Well out of the last 10 elections, only twice has the popular vote exceeded 10% points. It isn't about the popular vote and is and always will be about the electoral college. If Obama wins Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and maybe Indiana by only 1% and carries all of Kerry's states, he'll probably win the popular vote by maybe 2-3 points, yet will win the electoral college over McCain 375 to 163. I think we can all agree, that would be an election landslide for Obama.

[Doctor_J]

1. I disagree, a little

I think the PV margin will be 5-6 or more. I can't remember when there's been a candidate as weak and baggage-laden as McSame, and an electorate as motivated as the Obamaniacs. I would real like to set *'s legacy in stone by trouncing his heir in a historic fashion.

[dems_rightnow]

2. PV will approach double digits

Maybe around 8%- that's a solid spanking.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I expect Obama to win the popular vote by 7-10 points.

And to close in on 400 electoral votes.

However, the polls being close isn't a surprise.

[democrattotheend]

4. I think some people are concerned about a Bradley effect

Personally, I am going to be very nervous if Obama is not up by at least 5 right before election day. I hate to say it, but I think it's something we need to factor in.