five-thirty-eight.. Nice site with "by state" polling numbers

[SoCalDem]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Looks pretty good so far :)

[FrenchieCat]

1. Looking like a President Obama to me.....

[samplegirl]

2. Lovin what I see!

Thanks great site.

[MercutioATC]

3. I dunno where they get their numbers, but they're WAY off...

Ohio 69% Obama?

Virginia 63%?


I expect a win in November, but this site is pulling numbers out of its ass.

[woolldog]

4. Not pulling numbers out of its ass.

But he recently changed his methodology which drastically swung the numbers in Obama's favor. It's discussed in detail on the site. I don't like the new methodology, but it's still a useful site if for no other reason than b/c it compiles all the reputable state by state polls.

[malik flavors]

5. This is the best numbers site on the net. Bar none.

Read their articles, they explain their methodology.

They predicted the primaries and were more consistently correct than the major polls were.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Those are win probabilities, not polling numbers.

So Obama is 97% likely to win MA and 94% likely to win CT, etc.

poblano is the best, bar none. Rasmussen recently picked him up. See poblano's kos diary where he describes his methodology in great detail.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/26/183555/011/136/464643

[woolldog]

7. The recent changes are suspect.