*** Squirrel's Electoral Map: Obama 272, McCain 266 ***

[FlyingSquirrel]

Been awhile since I updated this. Methodology in previous journal posts -- basically I do an average of all reasonably recent polls (maximum of 9 within the past four months), then take an average between that average and Pollster's average, if they list one.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/FlyingSquirrel/27">Previous Electoral Map

For June 18: Obama 272, McCain 266. This is an improvement over May 24 (Obama 269, McCain 269). Michigan has - barely - slipped into McCain's column for a loss of 17 EV, but Ohio has moved into Obama's column for a gain of 20. McCain has made slight gains in NV and TX; Obama has made gains in IA, MO, NC, VA, WA, and WI.

[FlyingSquirrel]

1. Here's a side-by-side of May 24 vs June 18

[my3boyz]

5. What the hell is wrong with the people in Michigan?

Are they upset because Obama has been talking about environmental issues? If they vote for McCain over Obama then they get what they (those that vote for McCain)deserve. What in the world is up with NH? Is that usually a blue state? Or red? I just automatically assume that the New England states always go blue. What is up in NH? Why do they love John McCain so much?

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. NH is a mystery to me. MI probably just hasn't seen enough of Obama yet

After all he was not allowed to campaign there during the primaries.

[bunnies]

10. New NH polls have Obama up by double digits.

No worries about NH.

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. Gah! Why do they keep doing that, coming out with a poll just after I update

I swear that ARG poll was not there last night. That changes NH from Obama being -2.2% to +4.6%

Makes it Obama 276, McCain 262

[corkhead]

15. long commutes with no choice but reich wing radio

Hannity, Limbaugh, et al have turned our brains into pudding. I also think there is a little bit of buried racism in the mix. My Mom and brother both "don't like" Obama, but can't say exactly why. Against their own best interests, they both voted for the disaster monkey twice. They have both been brainwashed by WJR, a 50,000 watt clear channel station that can be heard all over the state, which spews nothing but reich wing corporatist shit.

It is my personal goal for the fall to get them to do something they would never imagine themselves doing, and voting for a Democrat.


I think it will happen.

[Bucky]

2. How on earth do you have Obama losing Michigan?

Michigan is gonna happen this year. It will be a slow build, but Michigan is gonna happen for us. New Hampshire is also gonna come to its senses.

If there's any state to be nervous about, I'd say it's Wisconsin.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. It's just a snapshot, I'm sure he'll win MI too. He's only behind by 0.5-0.7%

I don't have any "tie" category, but if I did then MI and VA would currently be tied and the count would be Obama 272, McCain 236.

[book_worm]

3. What poll do you have for Michigan--last poll I saw Obama was up by 3

if anything it's a toss-up. Also a new Quinnipiac Poll came out today giving Obama a 4-pt lead in Florida. The latest Virginia poll has Obama up by 1.

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. I don't do ties, but if I did then MI and VA would both be ties.

I have Obama down 0.7% in MI and down 1.6% in VA.

The polling numbers I used were the most recent 8 polls from pollster.com. Averaging them all gave me McCain 43.1, Obama 42.3 (0.9% difference). Pollster calls it as McCain 42.5, Obama 42.0 (0.5% difference). So my average between the two is 0.7%

Originally I was just using Pollster's average - but ran into a http://journals.democraticunderground.com/FlyingSquirrel/16">problem with that because at one point Pollster's average was clearly off by quite a bit, skewed crazily from only a single poll. Also sometimes there are not enough polls and Pollster doesn't put up an average of them. So I came up with this solution as the most reasonable way to compensate.

[papapi]

4. Obama will take Virginia, I have no doubt. Mark Warner's senate candidacy will....

sweep Obama into VA on it's tidal wave.

[my3boyz]

6. I hope so. I'm going to work hard to make that happen. nt

[FlyingSquirrel]

11. *** Quinnipiac Update - June 18 ***

Hate it when a poll comes out just as I'm doing this.

Obama improves by 3.5% in FL, 0.3% in OH, 2.2% in PA.

This doesn't change the blue-red scheme this time around or the result (272-266) but it would bump PA into the next darker blue category of 5-10 (actual percentage +5.7%) and bump PA into the next lighter red category of 2-5 (actual percentage -3.5%). I'm especially happy to see the change in FL.

Aside.. I think I need to make the 5-10 category slightly lighter, I'm confusing it with 10-15. Guess I'm a bit color blind.

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. *** ARG Update - June 18 *** (NH moves to Obama)

NH changes from being -2.2 to +4.6 for Obama;

New totals: Obama 276, McCain 262.

There was also an ARG poll in FL which bumps it up to Obama -2.3 (as opposed to -3.7 in previous Quinnipiac post).

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. Updated Map Here