The Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 18 – Obama 298-240

[phrigndumass]

The ups and downs ...

Our swing states total jumps another 10 points today, mostly due to bluer trading of Michigan and Indiana on Intrade. Moving beyond the majority, this upward trend is a good sign that Obama is performing continuously better than McCain in the 12 tough states we have chosen for this list. Missouri is still in "the zone" (40-60) and Ohio moves another inch away from the zone today. Obama's highly probables (states he's winning by 10% or greater) keep growing stronger as Ohio begins to poll Strong (+11) for Obama.

At the same time, Obama's probables (states he's winning beyond the margin of error) has shrunk since the weekend, with Minnesota polling Obama +1, or within the margin of error. Obama's probables total on Friday's full weekly MATH update was at 277 (51.5%), but has now dropped to 254 (47.2%).

And Obama's lead in potentials (states he's winning, plus states within the margin of error, less McCain's potentials) has also diminished a bit. Minnesota now falls into McCain's potentials category as well, since it is within the margin of error. Obama's lead in potentials was at 16.3 percentage points Friday, but has slipped to 14.9 percentage points since then.

Pair these with a weakening strength of projection (was 35.9% Friday, now 32.2%) and we have the ingredients of a downward cycle in electoral votes for Obama.

Reduced Probables + Reduced Potentials + Weaker Projection Strength = Downward Trend

When this equation changes, the results will begin to move back up.

Looking at the whole picture, though, Obama is projected to win in November. Although Obama's electoral vote projection is slipping, his trading is increasing and our WEA Index stands steadfast in the win category for Obama.








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH


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TRACKING



^ 538.com's projection has moved in line with EV.com's projection, both at 317 electoral votes for Obama. My projection slips below 300 due to signs of a downward cycle.



^ I find comfort in the fact that our WEA Index is holding steady in the win column for Obama.



^ Another big leap and a new all-time high today for trading of our 12 swing states!



^ It's nice to see Intrade and Rasmussen Markets both continuing to trade north of "the zone" for Obama.


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction.
It is a map of the states which are currently
either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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[tekisui]

1. knr.

It is going to be great fun to watch these charts for the next 4 and a half months.

I expect the map to regularly turn bluer.

Thanks for the work!

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks tek! Florida turned blue right after I posted this morning, lol

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. LOL ... malik flavors gives us the good news from Quinnipiac

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6378750

These three polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, weren't calculated into today's post. They must have been released shortly after I gathered this morning's data. This increases the strength of projection, and also increased Obama's potentials. And Florida switched sides, which will increase our WEA Index.

My post is instantly outdated today! :7

[grantcart]

11. and McCains love of off shore production will hurt him even more in Florida

BTW do you have that chart that rates different pollsters


how does Quinnipiac Rate?

[phrigndumass]

13. Quinnipiac is ranked in the top 10 for accuracy ...

And they poll more folks than other agencies. Their margins of error are usually between 2.5 and 2.9, much lower than that of Rasmussen, SUSA, and even PPP.

Off shore production might help McCain in Texas (?), but he'll definitely lose support in Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc. J.R. Ewing would vote for McCain, lol

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good morning, phrigndumass!

thank you for such a nice explanation for the math dummies out here :)

[phrigndumass]

5. Good morning f4m3s!

:donut: :hi:

So you have twins! I know firsthand how much of a handful twins can be, since I'm a twin myself. I have three twin sisters ... can you figure that out?

One twin sister, and two sisters who are twins, just short of two years older than us. Imagine four babies in diapers all at the same time. :crazy:

[fight4my3sons]

7. oh, I have soo much respect for your mother

my son is 20 mos older than the twins. I thought three in diapers was bad. Now I'm going to have even more qestions for you! lol

Have a good day at work! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

9. lol, fire away! :)

Hope you have a good day as well! :hi:

[mod mom]

6. I don't understand Minnesota (land of Paul Wellstone). I used to consider it a bastion of

progressive thought but Franken (against Norm Coleman!!!!) isn't doing well and it's weak for Obama? Anyone have any insider explanation on what's happening in Minnesota?

[phrigndumass]

8. That's a good question ... anyone?

Survey USA is the agency releasing the latest polls from Minnesota. It's possible they might have incorrect assumptions plugged into their data. Possibly an outlier?

I'm hoping for a Franken win there, and it's close.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

10. Off to work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day, everyone

[phrigndumass]

12. Afternoon kick ... Changes since this morning

Six new polls:
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 43 (Quinnipiac)
Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40 (Quinnipiac)
Maine: Obama 55, McCain 33 (Rasmussen) <--- fight4my3sons, notice!
Wisconsin: Obama 52, McCain 43 (Survey USA)
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 45 (Public Policy Polling)

Probables are still down a bit, but the potentials are up and the projection strength is up. I'm seeing 308 electoral votes for Obama as of noonish today (+10 since this morning).

Our WEA Index should leap over 58 tomorrow (+5), thanks to Florida!

[fight4my3sons]

16. I'm noticing :)

Remember what I was telling you about the caucus situation...

I see a lot of Obama stickers and have seen 1 McCain sticker so far. Though I do still see * stickers. :puke:

Our local office is set to open next week. :party: They have asked if they can hang a copy of my son's letter from Obama up on the wall. :)

[phrigndumass]

17. Nice! That should make your son proud :)

That letter will be a keepsake for his whole life, I'm sure. :)

[Ysabel]

14. thanks again...

k and r...

[phrigndumass]

15. Thanks Ysabel

:hi: