Rasmussen, 6/18: Obama 45%, McCain 41% (with leaners, Obama 48%, McCain 45%)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, Obama holds a three-point advantage, 48% to 45%. Both results reflect a single point gain for McCain and a continued fade for Obama’s bounce. Today’s results are the closest the race has been in polling conducted since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination (see recent daily results). Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

With leaners, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 79% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, it’s Obama 46% McCain 41%. (See recent demographic notes). On the question of who is a better leader and whose values are closest to your own, the two candidates are essentially even (crosstabs available for Premium Members). Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters say the Obama-McCain election will be exciting.

-snip-

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released (yesterday’s data showed the Alaska Senate race is still too close to call. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night. In Virginia, Obama and McCain are tied. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 185 Electoral College votes while McCain has the advantage in states with 174 votes.

Data released yesterday showed that 67% of voters believe drilling should be allowed off the coasts of California, Florida and other states. More polling on the topic is coming soon, including a poll in Florida where the issue has long been off-limits for state politicians.

[highplainsdem]

1. The Florida poll about offshore drilling should be interesting.

[democrattotheend]

2. 79% of Democrats is an improvement, I think

Since there are more Democrats than Republicans this time around (unlike in 2004, where they were essentially split), Obama can still win even if he has a higher defection rate, especially if he can win the independent vote. Hopefully the % of Democrats will continue to go up as we get further away from the primaries.