St. Pete Times: Black Voters Could Tip Florida to Obama

[flpoljunkie]

June 22, 2008
Black voters could tip Fl to Obama


Retired longshoreman Willie Bussey carries voter registration forms and Obama donation envelopes with him everywhere he goes.

JACKSONVILLE — Across the street from the downtown Rosa Parks bus station, 71-year-old Willie Bussey held court beside a shaded hot dog stand. Donning his homemade Barack Obama T-shirt and recounting how he once banished his son from the house until he produced a valid voter registration card, Bussey showed off the Obama donation envelopes he pushes on everyone he can.

"People gave their lives for this right, and this is a history-making election. No black man has ever been this close to being president, and in my lifetime probably no one will get this close again,'' said Bussey, a retired longshoreman who is African-American, like the vast majority of bus riders filtering in and out of the Jacksonville bus depot. "I'm hopeful. But I ride the bus every day and I always ask how many people on the bus are registered to vote. Very seldom do a lot of young people raise their hands."

Obama is counting on changing that dynamic in this state, where African-American turnout can determine who wins and loses Florida's 27 electoral votes. To hear the voices at the Rosa Parks bus station and to see what Obama already has done in key primary contests, there's every reason to think he could do it.

Story here.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/article637644.ece

Posted by Adam Smith at 8:18:25 AM on June 22, 2008

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/06/blacks-could-ti.html

[fasttense]

1. Not if the repukes keep them from voting like they did in Ohio. n/t

[rosesaylavee]

2. IF allowed to vote this time.

They would have tipped it for Gore and Kerry too but the state messed around with the machines and records and delayed voting in some areas where the population was predominantly black.

When we get the WH back - we will fix these damn election issues once and for all.

[CanonRay]

4. ...and if they actually count the votes as well

and if the votes counted don't go to Bob Barr or something (remember all the Buchanan votes?)

[rosesaylavee]

14. Ah yes. All those votes for Buchanan.

Yes. Exactly. I am very VERY uncertain about Florida coming around magically for the DEMS this time.

[roseBudd]

3. Downticket any R congressperson who has a double digit AA pop. in their district is

also reportedly endangered. Steve Chabot Ohio is most at risk with 25%.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. That's bizarre exaggeration

Have you ever studied the breakdown of congressional districts? Plenty of sites enable it. And there are many districts with huge African American percentages, 25% and higher, where Obama has zero chance and the GOP congressman is not threatened. Of course, those districts are overwhelmingly in the South, districts where the white vote can reach 80/20 tilt and that offsets the 90+% of the black vote.

I can think of a few off the top of my head, since they are the first 3 districts alphabetically when I get around to analyzing the districts. Alabama 1, 2 and 3 have huge African American percentages but we don't threaten to compete. #3 might be more competitive this time. It's closer than the other two at base level. I really haven't studied the districts yet for '08, incorporating the relative strength of Democratic challengers, etc.

By definition, double digits won't cut it. The nation itself is double digits in the black population.

Anyway, Florida is definitely within reach. I was posting that months ago even as extreme Obama supporters were content to write it off. The key is maintaining a national lead of at least several points. Florida will topple our way if Obama wins the popular vote by 3+, perhaps even 2+.

But that makes Florida more or less irrelevant. Ohio will sway before Florida and most likely we only need one of the two. Extremely unlikely Obama could carry Florida minus Ohio, since Ohio figures to tilt more Democratic than Florida in the partisan index (state percentage compared to national).

[roseBudd]

18. here is the link regarding Steve Chabot OH R

The data comes originally from a Bloomberg article:
Obama's Coattails May Drive Record Black Turnout in House Races
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=adkPhlSZYS0Q&refer=us


http://beta.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=blog02&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3aec38bb2b-982e-46ba-819a-da01a547e8eaPost%3a71af0a1a-7783-4429-aafe-9a3214a7ef19&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com&GID=FjZAM1ew3gp3FiEMbICudyYihkHP/nz97EqD+5aKf7o%3D

Will Obama knock out Chabot?
Posted by CarlWeiser at 5/29/2008 9:14 AM EDT on Cincinnati.com

An interesting take on the 1st Congressional District race from Bloomberg's Laura Litvan
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- In 2006, Ohio Republican Representative Steve Chabot barely survived the electoral drag of the Iraq War, congressional scandals and an unpopular president. Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy this year may deliver a knockout blow.

More than a quarter of the voters in Chabot’s Cincinnati district are black, the highest concentration for any incumbent House Republican in a competitive race this fall. Obama’s likely spot at the top of the Democratic ticket may fuel a surge in turnout among black voters that could help the party pick up a half-dozen new House seats.


There has already been record turnout of black voters in this year’s primary contests. The Obama campaign and political experts expect that trend to continue in the fall, imperiling incumbents in Republican-held House districts that have a double-digit black vote.

snip

Wasserman said Obama's presence on the ticket could help Democrats capture House districts with a large black voter presence, including those of incumbent Republicans Chris Shays of Connecticut, Robin Hayes of North Carolina and Thelma Drake of Virginia. The seats of retiring Republicans Jim McCrery of Louisiana, Tom Davis of Virginia and Terry Everett of Alabama also are vulnerable, he said.

[JustAnotherGen]

5. I believe it

But I'm in the camp of - If they count their votes, don't scrub the registered voter's lists.

Here's what I'm thinking - We are D.U. I don't care if someone is here as a registered poster, a reader who never registers (I was one for years) - but we are passionate about our progressive beliefs.

Florida is the land of the Rosewood Incident and decades after the Civil Rights Act, Voting rights, etc. etc. - the place of Disenfranchisement of Black People because John J. James a fine upstanding citizen had a name similiar to J. John James and therefore was not allowed to vote.

What could we do to make sure these people get a chance to vote? I'd personally commit to sending in a absentee ballot (I live in NJ - this state is going Dem come November as it always does), flying down the Sunday before the election, take three days off from work, and 'Work' the Polling Places. I.E Guy/Woman walks out and Christ's State :rofl: says they aren't allowed to vote, in the wrong polling place and they have Ditto Heads in Polos and Khakis standing outside to intimidate them.


What if when they get past the ditto heads - there are Progessives waiting there to help them? Calling the media to alert them about what is going on? Advocating on their behalf to walk back in with them and demand the vote?

Look - we have a candidate saying, "Yes we can." We had to contenders that said, "They would fight, and they have fought" (Edwards and Clinton). We had one saying that the War is illegal (Gravel), another submitting articles of impeachment . . . . Our primary candidates though they had differences - they all sparked something in each of us.

We can't just sit on the web (though I love D.U.) on election day. I really do NOT trust the Government of Florida. I don't trust them to let these folks have their say. My handicap is that I don't know how to get something like that started. But if someone does, PM me.

[flpoljunkie]

9. We do opti-scan in all counties, so we will be able to do a recount, if necessary. I share your

concern about voter disenfranchisement. As I recall, the state set up a system that required matching of information to crosscheck voter registration that was error prone. Whether this has been fixed, I do not know.

Also, on election day, we must be certain that black voters are not intimidated by police road blocks set up near black precincts to check drivers' licenses, etc., as happened in 2000. And, of course, there must be vigilance at the precincts to make sure voters are not turned away, and are given provision ballots, if there is some question of their eligibility to vote in that precinct.

I feel certain the Obama campaign will be vigilant on all these fronts.

[JustAnotherGen]

10. How could we find out if

It has been fixed? Has Florida had to prove it?

Any record of where the Po Po set up the road blocks?


The precincts would easy enough to determine.

I'm not being snotty (I hope when I type what I type next) - but do Black Floridians KNOW what a provisional ballot is and what they can do with it?
Not everyone is as saavy as the average DU'er. <---- Hoping that comes across with Positive Intent as IS my intent.

[flpoljunkie]

12. More: Can '08 Election Be Fair? Experts Foresee Problems with Florida Voter Rolls

Can '08 election be fair?

Experts foresee problems with Florida voter rolls, new equipment, laws and lawsuits.

By STEVE BOUSQUET, Tallahassee Bureau Chief
Published December 9, 2007

ATLANTA - Elections experts from Southern states on Saturday debated the potential for problems at the polls in 2008, and the Florida contingent did its part to uphold the state's reputation for voting controversy.

Secretary of State Kurt Browning bristled at an election supervisor's complaints of inaccurate information in a statewide voter database that supervisors rely on to make sure the voter rolls are correct.

The complaint came from Leon County's Ion Sancho and, to a lesser extent, Sarasota's Kathy Dent. Both voiced concern about cases of incorrect information on the rolls or cases in which people may be denied the right to vote because of human errors in entering names, addresses and other vital information that does not exactly match a driver license's or Social Security number or misspells a hyphenated surname.

Sancho, an outspoken critic of the state's management of voter information, predicted "mass confusion and chaos" on Election Day in November, when Florida voters will help elect the next president.

"Florida is not going down the crapper when it comes to our voter registration system, and by the way, you can quote me on that," Browning said in a luncheon speech. "I do not foresee mass confusion and chaos as we approach 2008."

Browning acknowledged that errors occur, but only in a tiny fraction of cases. He noted that voter information is most often entered by state driver's license clerks, because more than 60 percent of voters register at those offices, or by county elections clerks.

Browning estimated about 14,000 people have been denied voting eligibility because their forms did not exactly match driver's license data or Social Security numbers, as federal law requires. But he said that is less than 1 percent of the 1.5-million voter registration forms processed since 2006.

(This is huge! Fourteen thousand people wrongly denied eligibility to vote could be the difference on who wins Florida!)

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/12/09/State/Can__08_election_be_f.shtml

[JustAnotherGen]

15. Thanks you!

And your right - 14K could definately decide who wins Florida. . .

[BlooInBloo]

6. I thought the state of Florida worked damn hard to make sure black folks didn't vote.

[JustAnotherGen]

7. And

We can't wait to get the WH back to fix it. It may have to be Fixed in Advance by Activists in order to get the WH back.

[Faygo Kid]

8. Florida is fixed. Peoples' votes don't matter there.

Maybe Ohio can be salvaged, but Rove made sure Florida is gone.

[treestar]

11. So the Democratic party's job is cut out

Make sure the registration process and the voting day processes are followed. Educate the voters and prepare them to stand for their right to vote if it is challenged.

[The Backlash Cometh]

13. Just make sure they get enough voting booths in those precincts

that have a high population of black voters, 'cuz that's one of the ways they suppress the minority vote.

[Coexist]

17. kicking with Hope!

[Imagevision]

19. NOTE: 2004 election in predominately black voting districts, there were shortages of voting machines

[DeepModem Mom]

20. K&R