Who do you think is our most vulnerable Senate Democrat this year?

[book_worm]

Most polls are showing a good chance for major gains in the Senate for Dems, but of our Senators up for re-election who do you think are the most vulnerable?

I say, Sen. Frank Lautenberg of NJ--age might be a factor. Recent poll by Quinnipiac College shows Lautenberg up over his GOP opponent by 47-38, but when an incumbent is under 50% that indicates he could have a challenge.

Who do you think?

[saracat]

1. Obama? I understand he is running for president?

Seriously, who do they have in mind if O wins?????

[Danger Mouse]

5. Doesn't the governor get to choose a replacement?

[SteppingRazor]

11. Yes. Blagojevich picks the replacement, and he's a Dem. n/t

[BrotherBuzz]

12. Yes

Illinois law gives the Governor the power to pick a replacement to serve until the next congressional election.

[book_worm]

25. That's good. So the pick would be good until 2010

[BrotherBuzz]

27. Yes, and I was going to correct you then I realized..

time is flying and the next congressional election would, indeed, be 2010, not 2008.

The pubs screw up and lost power in congress in a mire dozen years. The Democrats had a forty year streak back in the good days before the became corrupted. Hopefully, Obama can set a moral compass the will steer us away from corporate Cronyism for a long, long time.

[SteppingRazor]

10. Some big shoes to fill, but there's quite a few potential candidates.

U.S. Reps Jesse Jackson Jr. and Bobby Rush have both been bandied about, as has the Illinois Sec. of State. The state attorney general and the state comptroller have also been name dropped, but I don't consider either of those to be particularly likely.

[Mass]

2. Landrieu - LA. I think she i the most vulnerable.

[newmajority]

7. With her voting record, she should be.

Too bad we can't replace her with an actual Democrat.

[SteppingRazor]

3. Landrieu in Louisiana --

polls are closer than Jersey, though Landrieu's still ahead. But the Democratic voting base in New Orleans is, suffice to say, not what it once was. And her opponent, John Kennedy, is a turncoat, having gone to the GOP fairly recently from the Dems. That may mean he can siphon away a few indies.


I don't think the GOP will pick up any seats this year, but I think Louisiana is their best bet.

[book_worm]

4. Good reasoning.

[Danger Mouse]

6. Landrieu is a DINO as far as I'm concerned, but we need every seat we can get.

Best of luck to her.

[pinto]

8. Agree on that one. She's the shakiest incumbent.

[BOSSHOG]

13. I don't think so

Mary will beat john like a drum during the campaign. She aint the ideal (D) but she is an ass kicking campaigner. Feel free to "tell me so" in November but me says Mary will retain her seat. kennedy is nothing but a punkass puke just like vitter, just like scalise, just like jindal. We can dis Landrieu but she sure as hell beats the right wing trash that LA offers up.

[SteppingRazor]

14. I won't be telling you so. Like I said in my post, I don't think the GOP will pick up any seats...

I just consider hers to be the most likely.

[BOSSHOG]

15. It should be a good race

because kennedy is a slick talking MOFO. I loved it way back when Mary beat the shit out of Susanne Haik Terrel who is about the most disgusting human being on the planet, and of course, she had conservative values.

[SteppingRazor]

17. Yeah, it's gonna be a damned close race, probably the closest they'll come...

to picking up a seat. The only other state where the GOP has any juice at all is New Jersey, and comparing the two polls that have been released for that race, a Rasmussen and a later Quinnipiac, Lautenberg looks like he's pulling away.

Lautenberg had to fight a primary battle, so I imagine he'll get a bump now that he's won it, and I doubt Zimmer will recover.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

18. I'm with you

Landrieu has serious game, and Republican turnout is going to be in the toilet. She's going to tear off his head.

[SteppingRazor]

20. Like I said to Bosshog, I don't expect her to lose.

I do expect this to be the closest the GOP comes to picking up a seat.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

24. That was less a retort to you

Than it was a confirmation of Bosshog's feelings about the nature of Landrieu's road ahead. For what it's worth, I agree that she's the closest the Republicans have to getting within 10-points of a victory.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

16. WTF?? Why would any Dem turn Republican at this time? nt

[SteppingRazor]

19. He switched parties in Aug. 2007, specifically so he could run against Landrieu...

that was not long after Katrina, and Landrieu was seen as even more vulnerable than she is now. Hell, back then, I thought she was fucking toast. Kennedy's simply an opportunist. He lost as a Democrat against Vitter in 2004, so he took his next available opportunity, this time against Landrieu. If you're a completely Machiavellian type, it wasn't really a bad calculation to make at the time. The thought was that Landrieu needed the voting base in New Orleans to get re-elected, and that voting base was simply nonexistent in the wake of Katrina. But the Landrieu-Kennedy polls have put the lie to that notion.

[graywarrior]

9. Landrieu

And for good reason.

[Hippo_Tron]

21. Landrieu is the only vulnerable Dem incumbent

Lautenberg will win by a comfortable margin. New Jersey is the annual GOP bastion of false hope. I swear to god the Democrats pay pollsters to release polls showing the Republicans doing well so that they will dump a million bucks into the expensive New York media market all for nothing.

[Stinky The Clown]

22. Hahahaha

That could well be true!

They have to pay for New York and Philadelphia media

[Smear Talk Express]

23. Baucus...

Progressives in Montana will wake up and elect the anti-war, anti-oil industry Bob Kelleher over the conservative "Democrat" incumbent.

[karynnj]

26. I don't have the same worries as you do here

NJ is a state where people are very upset by the corruption in state government. We have had Toricelli, and McGreevey (whose problem that really made him step down was NOT sexual orientation.) We've also had corrupt Republicans. Whitman, who was not known to be corrupt lied for Bush on air quality in nearby lower Manhattan, where many from NJ work. This explains why everyone has bad approval ratings - check out Corzine's.

There were also several push polls - pointing out Lautenberg would be in his 90s by the end of his term - and asking (with no opponent mentioned) if he should be re-elected. I saw Lautenberg speak in my county for Menendez - he was razor sharp. That was 2 years ago.

What you need to remember is that NJ was likely going to nominate Toricelli when it was pretty clear that he was, let's say, not clean. Why? the alternative was a conservative Republican. That was in Nov 2002, when Bush's popularity was still in the 70s! Now, if we idn't want Republicans then, we don't want them now - when Bush is in his 20s.

Lautenberg's opponent couldn't win back his congressional seat when he abandoned it for an earlier run. Lautenberg also TROUNCED Andrews, a hot shot up and coming Congressman who has been pushed by many party leaders - though he was clearly told not to run against Lautenberg.

People in NJ are cynical (or smart) enough to say that they know he is old, but if he has to step down - Corzine will nominate a Democrat, who is better than Zimmer.