LA TIMES POLL: Obama 49 (+3), McSame 37 (-3). Huge "enthusiasm gap" benefits Obama.

[jefferson_dem]

Obama holds 12-point lead over McCain, poll finds

A Times/Bloomberg Poll says that in a two-man contest, 49% of respondents favor Barack Obama, while 37% support John McCain. With Ralph Nader and Bob Barr added to the mix, Obama holds 15-point edge.

By Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
2:00 PM PDT, June 24, 2008

WASHINGTON -- -- Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.

In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted last weekend.

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.

Obama's advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems, the public's top concern.

In contrast, many voters give McCain credit as the more experienced candidate and the one best equipped to protect the nation against terrorism -- but they rank those concerns below their worries about the economy.

Moreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced "enthusiasm gap," especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support. Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58% say they will vote for McCain; 15% say they will vote for Obama, 14% say they will vote for someone else, and 13% say they are undecided.

By contrast, 79% of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.

Even among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, more than half say they are "not enthusiastic" about their chosen candidate; only 45% say they are enthusiastic. By contrast, 81% of Obama voters say they are enthusiastic, and almost half call themselves "very enthusiastic," a level of zeal that only 13% of McCain's supporters display.

<SNIP>

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story

[Hope And Change]

1. Yay...K & R!

[Pirate Smile]

2. Bounce? We got bounce confirmed!

:D

[book_worm]

3. It's interesting how these non-tracking polls (Newsweek/Times) show a bigger Obama lead while

the tracking polls show it closer (Gallup/Rasmussen).

[Barack_America]

5. I do wonder how often those tracking polls switch up their respondants...

Are they just surveying the same people over and over again?

[jefferson_dem]

11. Tracking polls have notoriously poor survey methodology.

Basically, they just grab the first 1000 respondents who are willing to participate. The response rate is very low. A typical non-tracking survey sample may require multiple "call backs" to the same phone number over several days until the interviewer finally reaches a living person. This is a much more sound "scientific" approach and, therefore, the poll results should better reflect the actual public opinion.

[Barack_America]

12. That's what I suspected. Thanks. nt

[Barack_America]

4. Um, wow. This is something I've never seen before.

A Democratic candidate for president doing this well this early (or at all).

must.not.get.complacent.

[book_worm]

6. True can't get complacent. Dukakis led Bush by 17-points

[Barack_America]

8. Thanks for that bit of history.

I vaguely remember that, though I was only 10. ;)

[FrenchieCat]

13. Well Obama isn't Dukakis, and McCain is Bush II-- So, no.....

not this time.

We will win, in spite of it all.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

7. Can we stop pretending now?

Short of Obama punching an infant, this race isn't going to even be close.

[book_worm]

Like I said earlier Dukakis led Bush I by 17-points, it's best to run

like we are ten points down. Of course Obama is a more polished politician than Duke.

[TheDonkey]

15. any link for that?

I heard that Dukakis NEVER lead Bush I so I am curious as to what the truth is.

[TheDonkey]

18. I found a link! Dukakis led after the convention

a traditional boost.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE7DB143FF933A1575AC0A96E948260

[jefferson_dem]

19. Sad but True.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/19/11498/1787

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

17. I'm usually all for caution

And I'm all for keeping the accelerator to the floor, but I'm not going to pretend that this is going to be close.

I'm beginning to like the phrase "Mondale's Revenge."

[sufrommich]

28. Don't jinx it !!!!! nt

[New Dawn]

31. There is a lot of work to be done.

I agree with the others who caution against overconfidence.

That being said, hopefully McLame will get less than 30% of the vote. :D

[CreekDog]

36. and let's face it, which candidate is more likely to punch an infant?

[Kahuna]

38. DUzy!!!! DUzy over here!

:rofl:

[Kahuna]

37. Why do you think Hillary fought so hard? She knew she too could

win if nominated. I always understood that about her. Still....

[Major Hogwash]

9. Last year they said that Oprah was making a mistake by endorsing Obama.

But, I'll bet ya dollars to donuts those same people would love to meet them both!!

She was right then - she is right now!!

Yes, we can!

[Thrill]

10. Just confirms the Newsweek Poll. Now we know why they sent Dobson out there

[beac]

14. Also, polls are done to LAND LINE phone numbers.

I'd bet you 75% or more of people under 35 don't even HAVE a land line.

[TeamJordan23]

16. k&r. just confirms the Newsweek poll. nm

[highplainsdem]

20. I don't believe the poll results. And the internal numbers show the problem with their results:

In this national poll's random sample of voters, 39% identified themselves as Democrats, 22% as Republicans, and 27% as independents. In a similar poll a year ago, 33% identified themselves as Democrats, 28% as Republicans, and 30% as independents.

They polled nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans.

Unless you really believe that the numbers of Dems versus the number of Rethuglicans has changed that much from the poll they said they did last year, then they should have realized this polling sample was off.

Yes, it's a safe bet that in any poll where you survey twice as many Democrats as Republicans, Obama will lead by a wide margin.

What's worrisome about this is that they polled 17% more Dems than Republicans, and Obama was ahead by only 12%.

39% Democrats
22% Republican
27% independent


49% Obama
37% McCain


That means that of the 27% who identified themselves as independents, Obama got 10% and McCain got 15%.

That is not good news. Especially if you don't believe there are really approximately twice as many Dems as Republicans.

[jefferson_dem]

21. Somethings not right about those numbers. What about the other 12%?

Anyway, how do you know those party numbers do not reflect the actual partisan breakdown in the public?

Check this out --- Where Have All the Republicans Gone?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

[CJCRANE]

22. There are many more Democrats

than Republicans, that's a fact. The last figures I saw were approx 50% Dems to 35% Repubs a few months ago.

These latest figures could well show that Republican support is collapsing.

[DerekJ]

25. Actually it has been a trend in all recent polls, more people identify themselves as democrats.

[highplainsdem]

26. I agree there are more Democrats. But not nearly twice as many.

[Beetwasher]

33. You're Wrong

That's been the trend. People are running away from the GOP brand in droves and a huge Dem ID advantage is showing up in every poll.

[Guaranteed]

23. Since McCain is going to lose, the Repukes may as well vote for Bob Barr. nt

[PM7nj]

24. Uh Oh! MSM can't dismiss the Newsweek poll as an outlier anymore!

What are they going to do now??

Anyone got any new Rev Wright tapes? :shrug:

[ErinBerin84]

27. heh, turned on David Gregory for a second

"After the commercial. McCain might...MIGHT have an enthusiasm gap when it comes to voters in November."

He SO did not want to say that line. I know, Gregory...it's painful that McCain doesn't have the same appeal to voters as he does to reporters.

[TheDonkey]

29. He looked like he was about to cry when he talked about the LA Times poll

mumbled under his breathe how the previous poll had Obama over 50% :puke:

[New Dawn]

30. Obama 48%, McLame 33%, Nader 4%, Barr 3%

From the same poll with all four candidates included. I think that number is more important, because neither Barr or Nader are going to drop out of the race, obviously.

[Hippo_Tron]

34. Interesting, Barr's votes come straight from McGramps, Nader from the undecided

[flpoljunkie]

32. The poll shows McCain +17 on terrorism. Expect more "terra, terra, and terra!" It's their only card!

They are, however, tied on who best can handle Iraq.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agCTbSDJ83rc&refer=home

[senseandsensibility]

35. "The election is the Democrats' to lose"

from the article. :toast: And Obama is no Dukakis.