The Daily Widget – Wednesday, June 25 – Obama 335-203

[phrigndumass]

Indiana switches sides again, back to Obama. It is possible that Indiana will be this year's Wisconsin (2004 in Wisconsin was 50-50) and we might see Indiana switch back and forth all season long.

Only three state polls were released yesterday:
Michigan - Obama 48, McCain 39 (Public Policy Polling, 6/22, +/- 4.1)
Indiana - Obama 48, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 6/23, +/- 4.0)
New Mexico - Obama 49, McCain 46 (Survey USA, 6/19, +/- 4.3)

Survey USA's New Mexico poll was taken during the same time as Rasmussen's New Mexico poll, which showed an eight-point lead for Obama but with 14% undecideds. Survey USA's poll shows only 5% undecideds. Trust the one where Obama leads by 3 rather than the one where he leads by 8, simply because of the difference in undecideds.

Trendlines are added to the graphs today for popular vote projections and my electoral vote projection.


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DAILY TRACKING

















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Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
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[tekisui]

1. Beautiful, I love the sea of Blue.

Thanks again, phrign. I love to pour over the numbers, and you do so much of the work for me! KNR.

[phrigndumass]

2. Also liking that shrinking island of solid red in the south!

Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Tentuckabama? lol ...

:donut: Good morning tek! :hi:

[jefferson_dem]

3. Thanks, phrigndumass!

You're the best! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. yw jd ... :)

Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good morning, phrigndumass!

:) We had a wonderful evening opening our county office last night! We have an official Obama person in our state now with more to come in the next two weeks! There were tons of people there and my little guy was a star with his letter and picture that someone had framed. So much fun!

k&r and have a great day!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Gobama in Maine! :)

I'll bet your son was beaming to see his framed letter hanging on the wall.

Have a good day, fight4my3sons! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

7. He was :)

I got a great picture of him and my wonderful Rep. Leila Percy :)
...and yay me because when they start talking all about 'the math' now I know what they are talking about most of the time! Not ready to jump in on any conversations though. :D

[phrigndumass]

8. LOL ... give it a month or two, you'll be wowing them

with projections and your opinion on regression theory :)

[phrigndumass]

9. lunck kick

[mod mom]

10. k& r! looking good!

[phrigndumass]

11. Thanks mod mom!

:hi:

[grantcart]

12. Bayh's VP prospects just took a little jump up

Without Indiana McCain does not have a chance in hell to win this.

I just don't understand why Indiana's intrade is still so low.

40-45 would be reasonable but under 30? Some money to be made there

Expect Nevada to flip next after McCain goes there and promotes more nuclear.

[phrigndumass]

13. If I had some spare change, I might purchase some Indiana Dem shares, lol

Anyone could make a quick $20 by purchasing one share.

Bayh is really popular in Indiana, and could help with the Louisville and Cincinnati areas as well.

Obama is leading by six million votes now :7