Rasmussen daily GE graph for 6/25/08 - Obama 46, McCain 40 (unchanged)

[DavidDvorkin]

With leaners, Obama unchanged, McC up 1, at at 49-45.














These Rasmussen graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html


Gallup: http://www.gallup.com

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[caledesi]

1. Fired up. Ready to go! NT

[DavidDvorkin]

2. I'm waiting for Rasmussen to start showing a double-digit lead

As a couple of other national polls have. The lack of change in these graphs isn't what I was hoping for.

[bunnies]

4. Some insight into why that is...

Read this earlier today....

And what of the differences between the polls? Why do Newsweek and the LAT/Bloomberg polls show big leads for Obama, while Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls show modest leads? I’m happy to let the professionals tackle the explanation of statistical models and sampling, but Mark Kleiman notes that the tracking polls “assume fixed partisan proportions within the electorate, and reweight the results of their daily polls to make the sample match the assumed “true” proportions of Democratic and Republican identifiers. Neither LAT/Bloomberg nor Newsweek does that, and both show voters tilting strongly Democratic. That may explain the difference between Obama +6 (Rasmussen), Obama +3 (Gallup) and these much bigger margins.”

link: http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/15988.html

[DavidDvorkin]

5. Very interesting! Thanks.

So if Rasmussen and Gallup start showing big leads for Obama, and they haven't changed their models, we'll know a landslide is coming.

[bunnies]

6. exactly! :) nt

[phrigndumass]

3. Four point lead, or about 5 million votes

A five million vote lead should be theft-proof.

K/R as usual :)