BLOOMBERG: OBAMA OPENS UP 15-POINT LEAD IN 4-WAY RACE (12 in 2-way)

[berni_mccoy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a1llds49pLmE&refer=us

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Democrat Barack Obama has opened a 15-point lead in the presidential race, and most of the political trends -- voter enthusiasm, views of President George W. Bush, the Republicans, the economy and the direction of the country -- point to even greater trouble for rival John McCain.

Illinois Senator Obama, winning support from once skeptical women and Democrats, beats McCain 48 percent to 33 percent in a four-way race, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows. Independent candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader get 7 percent combined, with the remainder undecided.

(snip)

The poll shows that the third-party candidacies of Barr and Nader, who political experts say likely will be on the ballot in most states, are hurting Arizona Senator McCain slightly more than Obama. In a two-way race, Obama's lead over the presumptive Republican nominee narrows to 12 points

This poll also highlighted a recent finding: that only 29% of people identify with the Republican Party.

This is why polls like Gallup are bogus: Gallup is sampling close to 50/50 Dem/Repub registered voters. They aren't accounting for disaffected Republicans and new Democratic voters. Gallup's poll for the same period is showing a 45/45 split between Obama/McCain, which I find hard to believe. Even Rasmussen shows a 7 point spread favoring Obama. Gallup continues to hide its methods as well. I no longer trust them.

[cbc5g]

1. Does anyone remember if gallup did well in 2000 or 2004 in the run up to the election?

[zanne]

4. I wish I'd paid closer attention to that...

And alot of other things.

[ingac70]

5. ....

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm

[zanne]

2. Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

This is why I think the polls are BS this time around. You can get major differences on the same day.

[ingac70]

3. All that is left for the Repubs...

is the last goofballs still supporting Bush.... 29%.

[berni_mccoy]

6. Yep. And they'll never get past their delusions.

[uponit7771]

7. By "hiding it's methods" are they just not stating HOW they sample? Thx

[Bullet1987]

8. The national polls are showing something vastly different than the

tracking polls.

[berni_mccoy]

9. And a single tracking poll over the same time period with the same # of individuals

Should not have such a deviation. That is, unless you are adjusting the numbers for ideology mixing.

[highplainsdem]

10. Berni, Gallup has reported (6/12) on the much higher percentage of Dems in its polls

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107842/Large-Democratic-Base-Provides-Big-Advantage-Obama.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- The current political landscape, with the percentage of those identifying themselves as Democrats outnumbering those who identify as Republicans by a 37% to 28% margin, provides a significant advantage for Barack Obama's presidential chances.

These data are based on 5,299 interviews with registered voters conducted as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking during the six-day period of June 5-10, representing the period since the general-election matchup of Obama versus John McCain became definite. Thirty-seven percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats, compared to 28% who identify as Republicans. Another 34% say they are independents and don't choose (in response to this initial question) to identify with either party.

-snip-

Those who identify as Republicans at this juncture appear to be a bit more loyal to their party's candidate, with 85% supporting McCain, compared to the 78% of those who identify as Democrats supporting Obama. Looked at differently, Democrats have a slightly higher defection rate -- at this point -- than do Republicans. (Although these data were collected after Hillary Clinton's announcement that she was suspending her campaign, it is possible that the Democratic defection rate represents some residual anger among Clinton-supporting Democrats, anger that may dissipate between now and November.)

Independents -- who initially do not identify with either party -- break toward Obama by a 46% to 39% margin. (McCain and Obama have been competitive for the independent vote since March.)

When all of these data for June 5-10 are put together, the overall vote pattern for this period among registered voters is a six-point margin for Obama over McCain, 48% to 42%. The margin is in Obama's favor in part because there are more Democrats than Republicans in the sample, which helps compensate for the fact that Democrats are slightly less loyal to Obama than are Republicans to McCain. Obama's margin is also based on Obama's ability to swing independents slightly in his direction.

Now, the LA Times/Bloomberg poll oversampled Democrats, polling nearly twice as many Dems as Republicans -- 39% to 22%. And despite the 17-point advantage for Obama given that weighting of the poll, it showed him with only a 12-point lead over McCain.